At present, the economic trends of countries around the world are divided, and the overall trend is not as good as expected. The economic recovery in the United States has slowed down, new projects have decreased, manufacturing demand has lacked motivation, and the manufacturing index has continued to decline; The European economic correction is obvious. In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP declined month-on-month, and the retail index and import and export data were exhausted. Japan's core CPI growth rate declined year-on-year, manufacturing, retail consumption and foreign trade data all deteriorated to varying degrees, and the overall economy remained fragile; Among the major emerging market countries, Russia and Brazil are experiencing economic recession and serious inflation, while South Africa is also on the verge of recession and facing the threat of inflation. Generally speaking, the external environment facing China's economic growth this year is more complicated and difficult. Domestically, China's economy is still at the bottom stage, and the domestic economy is in a critical period of structural adjustment. Due to the heavy task of de-capacity and de-inventory, the economic growth rate will continue to slow down steadily, and the increase in consumer prices will not be too great. At the same time, due to the continuous shrinking of international trade, the appreciation of the US dollar and other factors, international commodity prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level this year, and the overall price level will be lower than last year, which will also curb domestic price increases to some extent.
On the other hand, the loose domestic monetary environment, the policy environment of ensuring growth and de-capacity, and the rigid rise in the prices of food, services, housing and other necessities will still promote a moderate increase in CPI. This year, China's M2 target was raised from 12% last year to 13%, and the scale of social financing was included in the monetary policy control index for the first time. The target is set at around 13%, which is higher than last year's 12.4%. It shows that the monetary policy level has further strengthened its support for the real economy, which will help push the overall price upward. In addition, the rigid rise of labor and land prices and the acceleration of price reform will push up the prices of food, services and housing. Considering that the impact of rising consumer prices this year is greater than that of last year, it is judged that consumer prices will continue to rise moderately this year, and the increase will be slightly higher than last year. However, the main reason for the price increase is the increase in the prices of food and services necessary for life and the influence of government policy factors such as adjusting the price of public services, de-capacity and de-inventory, and it is not a fundamental change in economic operation or the relationship between supply and demand.
Second, PPI still maintains a significant downward trend, and the decline will be reduced.
As of February, 20 16, the PPI has been declining for 48 consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 12.7%, of which the PPI decreased by 5.2% in 20 15. In terms of composition, the price of means of production decreased by 16.6%, of which 20 15 decreased by 6.7%, which was 3.9 and 1.5 percentage points lower than PPI respectively. In the same period, the prices of means of subsistence increased by 0.2% and -0.3% respectively, which kept a stable operation, indicating that the decline in PPI was mainly due to the decline in the prices of means of production.
From the perspective of development, the PPI will continue to decline in 20 16 years. From the domestic situation, the downward pressure on China's economic growth is still relatively large, and the weak growth of investment demand, increased export difficulties and overcapacity are still important factors affecting the demand for means of production and the decline of PPI. From the international situation, the economic recovery process of developed countries is slow and repeated, and the economic growth of emerging economies encounters great difficulties, which affects the growth of global demand and will restrict the price increase of means of production; The trend and expectation of dollar appreciation will also directly affect the price decline of bulk products denominated in dollars in the international market, thus affecting the decline of domestic PPI.
Although PPI will still show a downward trend, the decline will be reduced, and some varieties will rebound to some extent due to market expectations, seasonal changes, geopolitics and other factors in the short term. First of all, after a long period of sharp decline, some commodity prices have fallen below the lowest point since the financial crisis, and the price level is close to or even lower than the breakeven line of production and operation. It is unlikely that international commodity prices will continue to fall sharply during the year, and the impact on PPI in the domestic market is weaker than last year. Secondly, China has taken some control measures to curb the rapid decline of PPI, especially commodity prices, such as setting the "floor price" of refined oil; Take economic measures such as merger and reorganization, bankruptcy and liquidation, strengthen hard binding measures such as environmental protection, quality, energy consumption and safety, and increase the policy of guiding the voluntary withdrawal of production capacity; In five years, the crude steel production capacity will be reduced by 65.438+0 billion-65.438+0.5 billion tons; in three to five years, the coal production capacity will be reduced by about 500 million tons, and the restructuring will be reduced by about 500 million tons. These measures are conducive to alleviating the contradiction of oversupply, improving market expectations, enhancing market confidence and effectively curbing the decline of PPI.
Although the decline of PPI and main commodity prices will be reduced, the cumulative decline is still increasing, and the transmission effect on product prices of other related industries will continue to strengthen. At the same time, because the contradiction between supply and demand has not been alleviated and the demand is still insufficient, the lag effect accumulated by the price drop of PPI and bulk products will be accelerated and transmitted to the processing industry, general daily necessities and durable consumer goods, which will expand the range of products with falling prices and continue to increase the negative impact on the overall economy and the economic benefits of enterprises.
Third, the GDP deflator will decline slightly, and the decline will be reduced.
The GDP deflator decreased by 0.39%, 0.04%, 0.66% and 0.73% respectively in the quarter of 20 15+0-4, and decreased by 0.45% for the whole year. Deflation model based on GDP deflator has emerged. In terms of composition, the deflator of the secondary industry decreased by 4.2 1%, 4. 13%, 5.27% and 5.50% respectively in the fourth quarter, and decreased by 4.79% in the whole year. The primary industry deflator rose by 0.42%, and the tertiary industry deflator rose by 3. 13%. The decline of GDP deflator is mainly affected by the decline of secondary industry deflator.
From the future development trend, due to the decline in agricultural expenditure, the greater pressure on grain purchasing and storage, and the rising risk of unsalable agricultural products (13.00, -0.05, -0.38%), the price increase of agricultural products will be less than that of the previous year, so the increase of deflator affecting the primary industry may be slightly reduced; Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the secondary industry, overcapacity in steel, coal, building materials and other industries is still outstanding, and it takes a long time to de-capacity. It is expected that the deflator of the secondary industry will continue to decline, but the decline will be reduced. Affected by the rising prices of real estate, labor, logistics and services, it is expected that the deflator of the tertiary industry will still rise significantly. On the whole, the GDP deflator in 20 16 will still decline slightly, and the decline will be reduced.
Fourth, the price increase of agricultural products continued to decrease.
Affected by many factors, such as the adjustment of agricultural structure, the destocking of bulk agricultural products, the price of international agricultural products being lower than domestic prices, etc., the price increase of agricultural products in China will continue to shrink in 20 16, and the prices of a few agricultural products will increase significantly, while the prices of most agricultural products will be weak, and some varieties will even fall to varying degrees.
First of all, China's grain production increased continuously 12 years, and the stock was sufficient, which basically curbed the sharp rise in food prices. Compared with 20 15, the minimum purchase price of early indica rice announced by the state has been lowered, and the minimum purchase prices of mid-late indica rice, japonica rice and wheat are the same, which has reversed the pattern of guiding a slight increase in food prices for many years. 20 16 grain prices will remain basically stable, laying the foundation for the stability of the whole agricultural product prices. Secondly, due to oversupply, the prices of major agricultural products such as soybeans, corn and cotton will remain depressed in the international market in 20 16, and the price difference with the corresponding agricultural products in China will still exist. This "upside down" price will lead to an increase in the import of agricultural products in China, an increase in market supply, an increase in the difficulty of selling agricultural products, and downward pressure on domestic agricultural products prices. Third, with the reduction of domestic energy and agricultural means of production prices and transportation costs, as well as the slowdown of labor cost increase and the reduction of agricultural producer price increase, the increase of agricultural product planting cost will slow down or even decrease, which will alleviate the upward pressure of agricultural product prices. However, due to the limitation of cultivated land, the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural products in China has been in a state of tight overall balance and structural shortage. In addition, due to the uncertainty of agricultural production such as climate, natural disasters and epidemic situation, the overall price of agricultural products will still rise to a certain extent, but the increase will continue to decrease. The prices of a few agricultural products may rise sharply due to structural factors, most agricultural products are weak, and individual varieties may even fall to varying degrees.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) The overall rise of real estate prices continues to divide in different cities.
Since the second half of 20 15, the central and local governments have continuously introduced policies and measures to adjust the deed tax and business tax of individual housing loans and real estate transactions, further reducing the down payment ratio of individual housing loans in cities that are not restricted from purchase, especially the local governments have introduced targeted policies to promote real estate destocking. At the same time, the prudent and loose monetary policy is expected to increase and the supply of funds is sufficient. The policy of adding leverage to the real estate market has promoted the activity of funds, and the funds flowing into the real estate market have increased substantially. This series of policies and measures have obviously benefited the real estate market and promoted the recovery of the real estate market. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, from February 20 15 to February 20 16, the price of new commercial housing in 70 cities dropped from 49 to 37, and the price rose from 39 to 47. In 70 cities, the price of second-hand houses has dropped from 34 to 26, and the price has increased from 35 to 4 1, which shows that house prices are rising month by month.
However, while the overall housing price is on the rise, there are huge differences in housing prices in different cities. House prices have risen sharply or even skyrocketed, and have continued to fall sharply. Since the end of 20 15, the real estate market in first-tier cities and a few hot-spot second-tier cities has been booming, with a large increase, while the third-and fourth-tier cities are relatively depressed. From February, 20 15 to February, 20 16, the monthly growth rates of new commercial housing in first-tier cities in Shenzhen were 47.5%, 52.7% and 57.8%, respectively, which were 3.2%, 4. 1% and 3.6% respectively, showing a trend of skyrocketing prices. Followed by Shanghai and Beijing, although the increase is not as big as that of Shenzhen, it has enough stamina to rise; In Nanjing, a second-tier hotspot city, the monthly growth rate of newly-built commercial housing in the same period was 7.9%, 10.8%, 14. 1%, respectively, which was 1.2%, 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. Therefore, the rise in house prices is likely to catch up. At the same time, in the second-tier city of Shenyang, the monthly growth rate of new commercial housing in the same period was -0.9%, -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, and the chain was -0. 1%, 0. 1% and -0.3% respectively, which was not affected by the current booming real estate market in first-and second-tier cities. New commercial housing in Dandong, a third-tier city, rose by -5.3%, -4.38% and -3.9% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter ratio of -0.9%, -0.2% and -0.3% respectively, far from waking up from the depressed real estate market.
From the development point of view, with the further emergence of multiple favorable policy effects, the rigid demand and improved demand in the local real estate market have been further released, which has formed a strong support for the rise of real estate prices. The real estate prices will maintain an obvious upward trend throughout the year, and the increase will exceed last year. However, due to the differences in inventory, new supply and purchasing power, prices in different regions still show obvious differentiation trend. It is expected that the housing prices in the first-tier cities represented by the north, Shanghai and Shenzhen and some hot-spot second-tier cities will rise sharply in the short term, but the housing prices in Shenzhen, which had a large increase in the previous period, will adjust to a certain extent; Housing prices in hot second-tier cities will also show an obvious upward trend in the short term, and the increase in housing prices is likely to expand; However, the downward pressure on real estate prices in third-and fourth-tier cities with high destocking pressure still exists in the short term, but the decline is expected to be reduced, and house prices in some third-and fourth-tier cities will rise to varying degrees.
6. The RMB exchange rate generally showed a slight downward trend, and exchange rate fluctuations increased.
Before 2015 "August 1 1 exchange reform", the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was roughly in the range of 6.1to 6. 17, with a small fluctuation. On the day of RMB "exchange reform", RMB once depreciated by 2%, and since then, the central parity of exchange rate has fluctuated in the range of 6.3 to 6.4. At the end of June 165438+ RMB depreciated again due to the news that RMB joined SDR. By the end of 20 15, the central parity of the exchange rate remained at around 6.48, down nearly 6% from the beginning of the year. From 2065438 to the beginning of 2006, the RMB exchange rate continued to decline slightly, and the central parity of the exchange rate remained at around 6.50 in the first two months.
Under the influence of the weak global economic growth, the expected appreciation of the US dollar and the decline of China's foreign trade, the RMB exchange rate showed a slight downward trend in 20 16, and the frequency and range of exchange rate fluctuations will increase. First of all, influenced by the strength of the US dollar and the differentiation of monetary policies in major developed economies around the world, the global spread may widen, and most emerging economies are facing the problems of currency depreciation and capital outflow. In this case, there is a certain depreciation pressure on the RMB. Secondly, due to the slowdown of China's economic growth, foreign trade exports encountered great difficulties and declined in a short period of time, which increased the sentiment of international speculators to short RMB. In order to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, the contest between the Bank of China and international short-selling RMB speculators in the offshore market will intensify, which will also lead to the RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Third, with the acceleration of the internationalization of the RMB, the central bank will intentionally increase the fluctuation range of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate, making the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate larger than before.
However, there is no basis for the RMB exchange rate to continue to depreciate sharply. First of all, the current consumer price level in China is basically stable, with a slight moderate increase. In 20 15 years, it only increased by 1.4%, which is at a low level compared with the inflation target of 2% in the United States, Japan and Europe, and is conducive to maintaining the stability of the RMB value. Secondly, China's current foreign exchange reserves are abundant, and it has the ability to cope with market speculative forces and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Finally, from the perspective of trade balance, China's current account trade surplus of goods in 20 15 was nearly 600 billion US dollars, which shows that China does not need to expand its foreign trade volume through competitive devaluation.
Seven, the price of funds will show a downward trend.
In the past two years, China's fund prices have shown an obvious downward trend. One of the manifestations is that the interest rate of bank deposits and loans has fallen to the lowest point in recent years. Since 20 165438+2004 10, after six interest rate cuts, the bank's benchmark deposit and loan interest rate for 1 year has been reduced from 3.00% and 6. 15% to 1.50% and 4.70% respectively. The second performance is that the interest rates of P2P online lending and private lending have shown an obvious downward trend. By the end of 20 15, 12 and 3 1, the average comprehensive interest rate of P2P online lending in China had dropped to 1 1.09%, down by 3 1.20% compared with the beginning of the year. From June 2065438 to June 20061October, it further decreased to 10.8 1%, which was 24.93% lower than the same period of last year. From the trend of comprehensive interest rate of private lending in Wenzhou, it fell to 18.65% in February of 20 15, which was 5.76% lower than that in that year 10. In February, 2065438+2006, it continued to drop to 18.6 1%, down 4.86% compared with the same period last year. The third performance is that the interbank lending rate has fallen across the board. At the end of 20 15, overnight, 7 days, 14 days and 1.99%, 2.36%, 2.95% and 3.00%, which decreased by 45.30% and 5 1.77% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. From 2065438 to February 2006, the interest rates of the above varieties were 1.99%, 2.35%, 2.65% and 2.93%, respectively, which decreased by 35.39%, 48.35%, 45. 13% and 42.09 respectively compared with the same period of last year.
Judging from the future development trend, the capital price will still show a downward trend. First of all, the demand for money and credit funds in the real economy has declined. In recent years, China's economic growth has gradually slowed down, enterprises lack confidence in economic growth, the business environment of enterprises has deteriorated, the expected rate of return on investment has declined, the willingness to invest is not strong, and the demand for funds is not strong. Secondly, the money supply grew rapidly. Since 20 15, the central bank has lowered RRR several times and intensified its open market operation. At the end of February of 20 16, the balance of M2 and M 1 was 142.46 trillion yuan and 39.25 trillion yuan respectively, increasing by 13.3% and 17.4 respectively. Third, the objective environment that the ex-factory price of industrial products continues to decline and the downward pressure on economic growth increases will also provide basic conditions for the decline in capital prices.
8. The increase in labor prices will slow down.
A few years ago, the effective surplus labor force in rural areas in China continued to decrease, and the relationship between supply and demand of ordinary labor force with migrant workers as the main body changed at a turning point, and the proportion of working-age population decreased, resulting in a sustained and rapid increase in labor prices in the whole society. In 20 1 1-20 14 years, the annual wage increase of employees in urban units nationwide was 26.8%, 18.3%, 3 1.2% and 10.4% respectively. The monthly income growth rate of migrant workers is 2 1.2%, 1 1.8%, 13.9% and 9.8% respectively, far exceeding the GDP growth rate in the same period. However, from the trend, the increase of labor price in 20 14 years dropped obviously. 20 15 due to the continuous decline in economic growth, the economic benefits of enterprises have declined, and the increase in labor wages has continued to fall. In 20 15, the monthly income of migrant workers increased by 7.2% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points over the previous year.
Judging from the development trend, the increase of labor price in China will slow down in 20 16 years. First of all, PPI prices have fallen for a long time, the growth rate of national economy has slowed down, the growth rate of corporate profits has decreased, losses have increased, and the phenomenon of bankruptcy has increased, resulting in a decrease in the growth rate of labor demand and labor income. According to statistics, in 20 15, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 2.3% compared with that in 20 14, among which the profits of main business decreased by 4.5%, and the profits of industries with more labor such as mining, cement, electrolytic aluminum and shipbuilding decreased even more. Secondly, the state takes the steel and coal industries as a breakthrough, speeds up the pace of closure, sale and merger, promotes the de-capacity and de-inventory, promotes the supply-side structural reform, resolves the contradiction of overcapacity, and the phenomenon of laid-off workers increases, resulting in employment difficulties. According to preliminary estimates, 65438+800,000 people will be resettled in the coal and steel industries alone this year. At the same time, with the deepening of manufacturing transformation and upgrading, the price of ordinary labor has been rising for several years, and robots (6 1.730,-1.77, -2.79%) in developed areas such as the Pearl River Delta have replaced some artificial phenomena, which will further reduce the demand for employment. The reduction of jobs will curb the rise of labor prices.
Generally speaking, the overall situation of China's price changes in 20 16 years is better than last year, mainly manifested in a slight increase in CPI, a decrease in PPI and a reduction in deflationary pressure. However, the cumulative decline in prices is still increasing, the range of commodities with falling prices is still expanding, and the uncertainty and volatility of price operation are increasing. The negative impact of this price operation pattern on the production, operation and economic operation of enterprises is likely to continue to expand, mainly due to the increased pressure on enterprises to stop production, suspend business and close down, and the difficulty for enterprises to increase profits and the income of ordinary employees. At the same time, the uncertainty and fluctuation of price operation will increase the difficulty of price supervision and increase the risk probability. Therefore, we should not only see the good side of price operation, but also see the potential problems and risks in price operation, especially the potential problems and risks in current price operation.