The development speed of China under the influence of financial crisis.
abstract
After the American subprime mortgage crisis evolved into an international financial crisis, it had a wide and profound impact on the world economy. Facing the crisis, we should not only see the challenges brought by this crisis to China's economy in transition, but also see the opportunities contained in it. Today, China's economy is increasingly closely linked with the world economy. The international financial crisis will have an important impact on China's overseas investment, import and export, finance, securities and insurance, real estate, tourism, employment, economic growth and economic status, which contains rare opportunities.
Keywords: financial crisis; Challenge; Opportunity; Coping strategies; national policy
1. The challenge of the global financial crisis to China's economy
The first level is overseas investment. On the one hand, after the crisis, the overseas capital market plummeted, which had a great negative impact on China's more overseas investment. The international financial turmoil has caused many overseas stock markets to shrink sharply and asset prices to fall sharply. Some companies' stock valuations have reached historic lows. In order to tide over the current difficulties, some companies sell assets or controlling shares cheaply; Some countries have greatly lowered the entry threshold for foreign investment.
The second level, import and export trade. This international financial crisis mainly occurred in developed countries and regions, and the destination of China's general trade import and export is also mainly in developed countries and regions. Therefore, this crisis will have a great impact on China's import and export, especially on China's export-oriented economy. Some export-oriented enterprises face the risk of difficulty in recovering funds and reduction of orders. A series of macroeconomic indicators such as China's general trade export income, trade surplus and foreign exchange income may undergo important changes.
The third level, financial securities insurance. The impact of this international financial crisis on China's financial industry is mainly manifested in: interest rate linkage, exchange rate fluctuation and its impact on the operation of financial institutions; Changes in the financial environment may have an important impact on bank loan business;
The fourth level is the real estate industry. The source of this crisis is the crisis of the real estate market. Therefore, the international financial crisis triggered by the real estate market will have many influences on China's real estate industry: the real estate markets of several first-tier cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and some second-tier cities may face the situation that some overseas investors sell their properties and withdraw funds.
The fifth level is tourism. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's tourism industry is twofold: on the one hand, it may be more convenient for China residents to travel abroad, and the domestic tourism industry is facing potential pressure to divert the number of tourists; On the other hand, affected by the economic recession caused by the financial crisis, the number of overseas arrivals may be significantly reduced, which will have a greater impact on foreign-related tourism.
The sixth level, employment. The impact of this crisis on employment in China is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, economic growth is slowing down, and new employment opportunities may be relatively reduced. Therefore, in a certain period in the future, it may face greater employment pressure.
The seventh level is economic growth. The economic recession in the United States and other western developed countries will have a negative impact on China's sustained and rapid economic growth.
The eighth level, economic status. The complexity and difficulty of economic recovery in the United States and other western developed countries will be much greater than that in China.
2. Opportunities in China during the financial turmoil.
The shrinking of overseas investment in international stocks has created a series of potential opportunities for overseas direct or indirect investment for related enterprises and institutions in China. The longer the international financial crisis lasts, the greater the damage, the slower the economic recovery, and the more potential opportunities for China to invest overseas.
Import and export trade as far as China's imports are concerned, some countries may introduce some policies that are conducive to the export of products that are mainly self-help, such as reducing export tariffs, lowering export prices, and relaxing technical blockade. Enterprises in China should seize this opportunity and expand the import of goods with technology, resources, shortage and price advantages according to their own needs and capabilities.
Finance, securities and insurance before the international financial securities market becomes unstable, it is impossible for China's financial securities market to get out of the reverse unilateral market. The main factors affecting the future trend of China's financial and securities markets are still the domestic market environment and operating mechanism. In the future, China will still adhere to the development path of financial reform, opening up and innovation, but market supervision and risk prevention will be further strengthened.
The real estate industry is based on the profound lessons of the American real estate market crisis. China will further standardize the development of the real estate market in the future, and will control the expansion of false real estate demand and the skyrocketing price, so as to avoid the systemic risk of the financial industry caused by the violent fluctuation of the real estate market.
Countries whose tourism industry is greatly affected by the crisis can take measures to promote the development of their tourism industry in order to attract more overseas tourists for the needs of developing their own economy and increasing employment.
After the outbreak of the employment financial crisis, unemployed financial practitioners in developed countries and regions may flow to countries and regions less affected by the financial crisis. Therefore, China is facing a good opportunity to introduce overseas financial talents, and the domestic financial industry may also face a more severe talent competition situation.
Economic Growth At present, the basis and mode of economic growth in China are obviously different from those in western developed countries. At the same time, China's economy is still an investment-driven economy, and there is still huge investment space for railways, highways, airports, ports, power grids, urban infrastructure implementation and new rural construction.
Economic status. In the next few years, when the growth rate slows down, the relative gap between China's economic aggregate and developed countries will narrow, and China's position in the international community will rise.
3. China's coping strategies and national policies in this economic crisis.
The world financial crisis will have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of China, and will also accelerate the adjustment of China's economic structure economically. However, we must stand on the overall height of national security and development strategy, and respond to the challenges and opportunities brought by the international financial crisis from the perspective of national development strategy, especially from the aspects of economic and financial strategy, science and technology education strategy, national defense military strategy, diplomatic strategy and independent innovation strategy. China's peaceful development should not be spontaneous and random. It is necessary to define national development strategies and encourage feasible goals. Only in this way can we scientifically understand and grasp the challenges and opportunities brought by the financial crisis. In this financial crisis, we must strengthen our diplomatic strategy and international cooperation. Safeguarding national interests and pragmatic cooperative diplomacy based on economy and finance can partially eliminate international public opinion that restricts China's development. Now is a good opportunity to strengthen international exchanges and understanding, especially with western powers; Explain to the international community that the development of China should not be regarded as a threat and challenge, which is the best reason and opportunity; This is also an opportunity to establish multilateralism and realize interdependence and differences among different nationalities, civilizations and ideologies.
Looking at the international financial crisis from the perspective of national development strategy is different from simply considering economic wealth. A big country with an independent mind and a large population like ours can rise peacefully not only by the accumulation of foreign exchange wealth, but also by our comprehensive soft and hard strength in economy, national defense and culture. China does not have great advantages in developing natural basic resources, economic and military strength, population and land and other hardware parts; We must firmly grasp the favorable arrangements of capital and innovation, science and technology and policy, and domestic and international economic and financial systems, and use these advantages to develop software to achieve sound and rapid development of China's economy, national defense and social construction.
All along, international economic relations and the world financial structure have also influenced and restricted China's economic development, especially various trade disputes. The financial crisis is also conducive to our participation in the new international economic and financial system. This will be reflected in the reform of the international economic and financial order and the reform of multilateral institutions that dominate the world economy, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Group of Eight. Seize the opportunity of restructuring the World Economic Organization in the once-in-a-century financial crisis, put forward our reasonable demands in international cooperation, and realize the gradual change of China's international status.
The standard of China's policy measures and international cooperation strategy to deal with the financial crisis is to see whether it is conducive to the solution, adjustment and improvement of the above three contradictions and whether it meets the strategic requirements of our country's development. There are many ways of international cooperation, besides the "bargain hunting" of equity intervention and the "bailout" of limited investment in national debt, there are also loans and the establishment of * * * mutual funds. At the same time, we can also put forward cooperation requirements in high-tech projects, energy and military equipment technology, and international recognition of China's market economy status. In the world financial crisis, limited and limited international cooperation is an inevitable strategic choice in the process of China's reform and opening up, and the only way to develop Socialism with Chinese characteristics well and quickly.
summary
To formulate and master policies is to seek the unity of regularity and purpose. We need to use scientific methods to deeply analyze the impact of the financial crisis on China's financial economy and realize the coordinated development of the virtual economy and the real economy. Suggestions on policies and measures to revitalize the stock market, expand domestic demand and promote economic development should strictly distinguish over-complicated financial derivatives from mature and perfect financial market hedging tools, so as to prevent choking on food and promote the development of the real economy with the healthy development of the virtual economy.