Basically speaking, every industry needs to use a lot of gasoline, so when the oil price rises, the cost of every industry increases, and the cost increase is passed on to consumers, and prices naturally rise, so the CPI naturally rises. It has risen. CPI reflects the rise and fall of people's livelihood supplies. So when people's livelihood supplies rise, everyone will have less spare money. Also, because of the increase in prices, everyone's demand for other things will also decrease, so the last sentence is The biggest impact of rising crude oil prices on our country's economy is economic depression ^_^

Since 2004, the economic operation of my country's petroleum and chemical industry has continued to maintain a momentum of rapid growth. From January to May, crude oil production was 71.4783 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; crude oil imports were 49.7601 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%; crude oil exports were 2.555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%; Domestic apparent consumption of crude oil was 118.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1-5.7%; crude oil import dependence was 41.9%, a year-on-year increase of 6.7 percentage points. In June, the average international crude oil price (Brent spot) was 35.6 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%. New York crude oil futures reached a maximum of 42.33 US dollars per barrel, setting the highest price in the 21 years since the New York Mercantile Exchange began trading crude oil futures in 1983.

International crude oil prices continue to rise, my country’s demand for crude oil is increasing, and imports are growing rapidly. What impact will it have on our country’s economy?

1. Overall judgment on current changes in international oil demand

?1? In the short term, the international oil supply and demand relationship is generally loose, but my country’s oil consumption growth requires great attention

In the short term, total supply can meet total demand, and there will not be a large-scale shortage of oil supply. According to statistics in 2002, the world's remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil are 142.7 billion tons, and proven reserves are increasing; the annual consumption of the world's top ten oil consuming countries is 3.52 billion tons, and the annual output of the world's top ten oil producing countries is 35.9 billion tons, supply and demand are basically balanced, with a slight surplus. However, great attention should be paid to the increase in my country's oil demand and the rapid growth of imported oil. In 1995, my country's oil consumption was 158 million tons, ranking third in the world. In 2002, my country's oil consumption was 246 million tons, ranking second in the world. In 2003, the global crude oil trade volume was 2 billion tons, and my country's crude oil imports were 90 million tons, accounting for 4.5% of the world's total and 34% of my country's total crude oil consumption. While my country's oil consumption is increasing year by year, our country's dependence on imported oil is also gradually increasing. By 2010, China's oil demand will reach 320 million tons, and oil imports will reach 160 million tons by then. Oil demand will depend on imports to a large extent. Although my country is the world's second largest oil consumer, its proportion in influencing international oil prices does not reach 0.1%. China needs to adopt a proactive strategy to change from a passive bearer of international prices to an active influencer.

?2? Global oil prices will remain high

The direct reasons that currently drive international oil prices to continue to hover at high levels are as follows:

First of all, The world economy recovers and oil demand increases. The World Oil Forecast Report for 2004-2005 published by the U.S. Department of Energy's Intelligence Agency shows that world oil demand will increase significantly. After world oil demand increased by 1.8% in 2003, the growth rate in 2004-2005 may exceed 2%. The International Energy Agency (EA) had predicted that world oil demand would increase by 1 million barrels per day in 2004, and on March 11 it raised the demand increase to 1.65 million barrels per day, reaching 79.9 million barrels per day.

Secondly, OPEC continues to adopt the policy of limiting production and protecting prices. In particular, as the U.S. dollar exchange rate falls, oil prices will continue to increase in order to reduce losses. Although the OPEC ministerial meeting in early June announced an increase in crude oil production of 2 million barrels and 500,000 barrels in July and August respectively, the actual increase is limited because the oil production of OPEC countries has actually exceeded production by a large amount. As the dollar exchange rate continues to weaken, OPEC countries will be more determined to increase oil prices.

The third is the insufficient proven recoverable oil reserves. Oil is a strategic commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and it is also a non-renewable resource. Experts analyze that low-cost large oil fields have basically been discovered, and world oil production will reach its peak before 2015. After oil production declines, oil supply will exceed demand. So far, humans use about 80 million barrels of oil every day, about 30 billion barrels a year. Currently, the proven recoverable oil reserves are 1 trillion barrels, and it is estimated that there are still 1 trillion barrels of unproven oil reserves that are difficult and costly to exploit. Exploiting new oil resources will be more difficult in the future.

Fourth, oil speculation drives up oil prices. In the absence of major changes in supply and demand, the oil market turmoil is largely caused by market speculation. The U.S. dollar exchange rate fell against major international currencies, and international hot money, including hedge funds, speculated on oil futures, keeping oil prices at a high level. Futures speculation behind the oil market is often the black hand that controls the rise and fall of oil prices.

The trading volume of oil futures is currently several times that of spot trading. It is estimated that in the oil futures market, the real demand side only accounts for 30% of the total trading volume, and the rest are arbitrageurs.

The fifth is the influence of political factors. The current domestic situation in the Gulf region and some oil-producing countries is turbulent. The political situation in major international oil-producing countries, including Iraq, is still in turmoil. Terrorist activities have occurred one after another around the world, putting the crude oil production of major oil-producing countries at risk of being blocked at any time, thus seriously Affect the stability of the international crude oil market.

Experts analyze that from an overall and long-term perspective, the decline in oil prices will be short-lived, and rising prices will be a long-term trend. In the near future, the distorted oil price will slowly fall back after market adjustment and the competition between various forces. However, the room for fall will be very limited and is expected to fluctuate between US$28 and US$33 per barrel.

2. Analysis of the basic situation of changes in global oil supply

First, the world's oil and gas resources have huge potential, but they are unevenly distributed and there are many opportunities. Based on analysis and forecasts from various authoritative institutions, the remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil and gas in the world in 2002 were 142.7 billion tons and 155.78 trillion cubic meters respectively. The current remaining recoverable reserves of oil can be supplied for at least 39 years, and natural gas can be supplied for 61 years. years and above. From the perspective of country distribution, the remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil in the entire OPEC country are 111.9 billion tons, accounting for 78.2% of the world's total, and the reserve-production ratio is as high as 82 years. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Venezuela rank among the top six oil resource countries in the world. These six countries account for 70.2% of the world's remaining proven recoverable oil reserves.

Second, the world's oil supply and demand will be basically balanced within 20 years, but regional imbalances will intensify. The main reason is that the world's oil consumption center is moving, and consumption in Asia has increased sharply. World oil consumption was 2.8 billion tons in 1982 and increased to 3.5 billion tons in 2002, an increase of 700 million tons in 20 years, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. Among them, the oil consumption in the three major regions of North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific was 2.982 billion tons in 2002, accounting for 84.6% of the world's consumption. The economies of the CIS countries declined, and oil consumption dropped sharply, from 420 million tons in 1990 to 173 million tons in 2000, a drop of 60%. The rapid economic development of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region has led to a sharp increase in oil demand, which has driven the entire region's oil consumption to increase from 500 million tons in 1985 to 992 million tons in 2002, an increase of 492 million tons, accounting for approximately 10% of the world's total during the same period. 67% of the growth in oil consumption.

Since 1992, the oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region has surpassed that of Europe, becoming the second largest oil consumption region in the world. Together with North America and Europe, it has become a tripartite force. In 2002, four of the top seven oil consuming countries were in the Asia-Pacific region, with China ranking second, Japan ranking third, South Korea ranking sixth, and India ranking seventh.

Third, the competition for world oil resources will become more intense, with hot spots in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea, West Africa and other regions. Since there are many discoveries of oil reserves in the Caspian Sea, West Africa and other regions, oil production is in a period of rising, and the situation in the Middle East is relatively stable. The Caspian Sea region is close to the two consumer markets of Europe and Asia. Therefore, international oil companies have increased investment in the above two regions and intensified exploration and development efforts. In particular, Russia hopes to maintain its status as a major power through energy weapons such as oil and natural gas. The Caspian Sea region is one of the important energy bases of the former Soviet Union, and Russia will also accelerate development and energy cooperation in the region. It can be predicted that the Middle East and North Africa will still be the main oil supply regions; the oil supply in the Caspian Sea and West Africa in Central Asia will be on the rise. Russia, as a non-OPEC, will play a decisive role in the oil market; the status of Central and South American oil suppliers will decline.

Fourth, the world's medium and long-term oil prices will gradually rise amid fluctuations. OPEC's forecast, based on its oil price target and in 2000 U.S. dollars, predicts that oil prices will remain at $25/barrel until 2010, and then gradually rise to $30/barrel.

3. The impact of oil price changes on my country's economy

The sharp increase in oil prices has a greater impact on the economies of developed countries, because oil accounts for a large proportion of their energy consumption structure and unit fuel consumption is high. , whose economy relies heavily on oil. After two oil crises and the development of the knowledge economy, developed countries have greatly improved their ability to resist rising oil prices. At present, the proportion of high energy-consuming traditional industries in the economic structure of developed countries has declined, fuel consumption per unit of GDP has been significantly reduced, and the ability to prevent oil crises has been greatly improved. However, underdeveloped countries are in the period of industrialization, with slow development of energy conservation and alternative energy, high fuel consumption per unit of GDP, high dependence of economic growth on efficient and high-quality oil, and weak ability to prevent oil crises. High oil prices have a negative impact on their economies. The impact is also relatively large.

In the two oil crises in history, the economies of developed Western countries were more severely affected than those of underdeveloped countries. However, when world oil prices rose to a high of nearly US$40 per barrel in 2000, the economic impact on developed countries was significantly reduced. However, some developing countries have suffered deeply from it: debt crises, government crises, social crises, unrest and other political, economic and social problems have continued to break out. The sharp increase in oil prices has played a role in accelerating and deepening the outbreak of these problems.

In 2000, some authoritative institutions around the world estimated that if oil prices rose by US$10 per barrel and remained at this price for one year, the impact on the economic growth rate of developing countries would be 1.5 times the world average and three times that of developed countries.

my country has become a net oil importer in 1993, falling between a self-sufficient country and a consumer country. Since my country's current net oil imports only account for a part of domestic oil consumption, my country can still be classified as a basically self-sufficient country so far. The impact of changes in oil prices on the national economy of a country like my country, which is both an oil producer and imports a certain amount of oil, can be roughly represented by the figure below.

Looking at the three factors of the national economy: consumption, exports and investment, rising oil prices will reduce consumption and investment, and decline in exports, thus adversely affecting the national economy. On the contrary, if oil prices fall, but not too low, because if they are too low, the oil industry will be seriously affected, thus affecting the national economy, which will be beneficial to the development of the national economy.

Relevant experts conducted a comprehensive analysis of my country's GDP, oil import volume and price fluctuations from 1993 to 2000. The results of the analysis believe that every 1% increase in oil prices that lasts for one year will increase my country's GDP. The value growth rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points on average; in 1999, international oil prices rose by 10.38%, affecting my country's GDP growth rate by about 0.07 percentage points; in 2000, international oil prices rose by 64%, affecting my country's GDP growth rate by 0.7 percentage points; percentage points, based on the GDP of 8.8 trillion yuan in 2000, which is equivalent to a loss of more than 60 billion yuan.

From the perspective of economic development, high oil prices are detrimental to the development of my country's national economy. According to the International Monetary Fund's prediction, if the price of oil increases by US$10 per barrel, the economic growth rate of Asia will decrease by 0.8%. From the perspective of imports, oil prices are high. The more oil is imported, the greater the foreign exchange expenditure. my country’s annual oil import uses about 35 billion US dollars in foreign exchange, which is the main factor in my country’s foreign trade deficit. From the perspective of exports, the higher the oil price, the higher the production cost of downstream products and the lower competitiveness of export products, which will greatly affect exports. From the perspective of transportation, the higher the oil price, the higher the price of refined oil and the increase in transportation costs, driving up the prices of production materials and consumer goods.

In short, rising oil prices are detrimental to my country's national economy as a whole, but the current impact is not very great. If dependence on oil continues to increase, the impact will become greater and greater.