First of all, the decline of foreign reserves is related to exchange rate changes, and the depreciation trend of RMB brings great pressure to the reduction of foreign reserves.
Secondly, the central bank adopted some monetary management measures in the process of joining SDR, which may also be a very important factor leading to the reduction of foreign exchange reserves.
Thirdly, the seasonal factors of residents' demand for foreign exchange for outbound tourism before the 11 th holiday are also one of the reasons.
Overall, the decline in foreign exchange reserves in September still exceeded market expectations, indicating that the outflow of funds under capital has expanded. Considering the seasonal factors of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and the increase of residents' foreign exchange holdings in 65438+ 10 every year, it is necessary to be alert to the intensification of foreign exchange risks at the end of the year.
With the RMB entering the SDR basket (which came into effect in June 5438+00), China should not let the exchange rate fluctuate greatly to ensure the smooth transition of the basket and the G20' s commitment to avoid competitive devaluation. In this context, no matter from the economic or political point of view, the actual downward space of RMB in the second half of the year is limited, the RMB can stabilize in the medium and long term, and the continuous downward trend of foreign exchange reserves will also be blocked.
Whether the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient when you ask is a relative concept, and it is the equivalent amount of trade settlement with relevant countries. If China used to follow the US dollar exchange rate for a long time, and the foreign exchange reserves of 1: 1 triggered the RMB, but now that we have joined SDR, as the world's five largest reserve currencies, the RMB will no longer be bound to the US dollar and foreign exchange reserves, so it seems that there is no shortage at present. If RMB can be converted into local currency, it is not a problem whether the US dollar reserve/foreign exchange reserve is available or not.
However, judging from the current domestic economic volume and foreign exchange settlement, the rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves will increase the expectation of RMB depreciation. Not conducive to economic development