1 stock market
Britain's withdrawal from the EU will first affect A shares through exchange rate channels. If the referendum decides to leave the European Union, the exchange rate between the pound and the euro will depreciate and the dollar will appreciate.
In turn, it will drive the RMB to depreciate against the US dollar. Under the expectation of RMB depreciation, capital flight and investors' asset allocation in the A-share market may be delayed or reduced, which will form unfavorable factors. From the perspective of the sector, foreign trade enterprises and banks holding euro assets and pound assets are greatly affected.
According to the analysis of securities professionals, the result of the referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the EU will directly determine the trend of the short-term capital market. If the referendum decides to stay in Europe, it will boost global risk appetite, which is expected to bring 5%- 10% increase to A shares. However, the impact on the future trend of the capital market is not expected to be great.
2 Precious metals
Affected by risk aversion, gold has a good recent trend. On the premise that Britain's withdrawal from the EU will come true, the international economic and political situation will be more volatile from July to September, investors' risk appetite will be reduced, and there will still be opportunities for further investment in gold. Optimistically, it is estimated that the price of gold will break at least 1 1,300 US dollars (the Chinese aunt who bought gold at the bottom of the market for more than 1 1,400 US dollars in that year is expected to sell it ~).
Judging from the current trend of gold and silver, its upward trend has not changed, and the short-term decline does not affect the long-term bull market pace of gold and silver. In addition, as the world's largest gold ETF fund, the gold ETF position of American SPDR Gold Trust Fund Company is still in the process of adding positions. Obviously, for global institutions, the bull market of gold and silver will not change because of Britain's "Brexit".
There is a long queue at the British currency exchange point.
3 foreign exchange market
If the British referendum decides to leave the European Union, major global central banks and analysts expect financial markets to fluctuate. Commerzbank predicts that the result of Britain's vote to leave the EU will trigger the central bank's joint intervention in the foreign exchange market. Britain's withdrawal from the EU will make investors flock to the US dollar, which will lead to a higher exchange rate of the US dollar, thus putting downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
According to industry insiders, the uncertainty of Britain's referendum on leaving the EU has increased the volatility of the future US dollar index. Under the mechanism that the RMB reference basket remains basically stable, the volatility of the US dollar index increases, thus increasing the volatility of the US dollar against the RMB.
4 Foreign consumption
Just last month, the pound fell against the dollar for six consecutive days because of the fear of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union. In the past week, with the support rate in Europe leading again, the pound continued to rise against the US dollar.
Take spending $20,000 abroad as an example. In the past year, when the US dollar index was the strongest and weakest, citizens went to the United States for shopping or sales. The biggest difference in RMB repayment is more than 8,000 yuan, and the same 20,000 euros, converted into RMB consumption cost, is 6,543.8+0.6 million yuan. Once Britain leaves the European Union, the departure of the second largest economic entity in Europe will be a heavy blow to the EU, and its influence will also spread to the whole world. Risk assets will be sold to varying degrees, and the pound is likely to depreciate. However, Britain's staying in Europe is still a high probability event. Once this prediction is confirmed by the results of the referendum on the 24th, the pound will rebound.