There have been more and more news topics about RMB appreciation in recent years. Ordinary people don't know whether it is better to appreciate or depreciate the RMB. On the surface, more people think that appreciation is good, but why is the country so afraid of appreciation? I don't quite understand, so Baidu search, here are some selected discussion topics, and then make a summary may understand some.
Viewpoint one. Appreciation leads to shrinking foreign exchange reserves.
As the US dollar accounts for the largest proportion of China's huge foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of RMB will inevitably lead to a serious shrinkage of China's foreign exchange reserves. For example, 1 USD equals 8 yuan RMB and 0. 1 g gold (for example). If the dollar depreciates and the RMB appreciates, now 1 is equal to 6 yuan RMB (for example), then 1 is not equal to 0.6544.
Viewpoint 2: Not conducive to exports.
For example, in the past, the Japanese spent 10 yuan on a commodity exported from China, but now they have to spend 12 yuan, so they don't buy it, so they can't export it.
Viewpoint 3: Create a trade deficit
Because it can't be exported, and imported goods are cheaper, the perfume of the same 10 yuan was originally sold in China as 180 yuan, but now it is only sold as 120 yuan, so those women who "try their best to dress up" and want to "make themselves attractive" all lose 10 bottles at home, so the country.
Viewpoint 4. Harm to foreign trade commodity processing enterprises
China is a big factory in the world, especially in the Pearl River Delta. Almost all foreign trade enterprises are processing. In the past, foreign businessmen had to pay 2W for processing a batch of goods, but now they have to pay 2.3W, which has reduced or even lost the advantage of cheap labor. As the devil has calculated, Mexican labor is cheaper and transportation costs are much lower. Therefore, foreign trade enterprises in China can't get back the list, or the finished products of foreign trade processing enterprises are still sold at the same price in the international market as before, but a large part of the losses have been replaced by RMB (the US dollar fell by nearly 10 point from last year to this year, but the profits of many small foreign trade processing enterprises in China were only about 5 points). As a result, many small foreign trade processing enterprises have closed down, depriving employees of employment opportunities, which not only affects the economy, but also may bring other negative effects.
Viewpoint 5: It has an impact on the capital flow in the international market.
This is divided into three aspects: first, a large number of overseas hot money poured into China to buy houses and stocks in order to appreciate with the RMB, which made house prices soar and our people could not afford to buy houses. Because these overseas hot money have been hanging out in the world financial market for many years, and they eat more human flesh than our China funds and retail investors, it is not surprising that they can get three or five when they enter the China real estate market. In a few years, when the RMB reaches the end, they will take a lot of money and throw it away, and it will not be a simple thing for our economy to survive.
Secondly, on the other hand, the appreciation of RMB has honestly raised the threshold for foreign capital to enter China's industries. For example, the original investment of 65.438+0 billion yuan can run a power plant, and now it needs to invest 65.438+0.3 billion yuan. Because the number 654.38+03 is unlucky in Christianity, the Japanese are afraid of not voting-of course, we can say: Oh, I'm too lazy to ask you to vote without voting. But in fact, this situation may destroy the good foreign investment environment that China has worked hard to create for many years;
Thirdly, the appreciation of RMB has also lowered the threshold for foreign investment of domestic capital, and the outflow of some domestic capital has done more harm than good to China's economy at this stage.
Viewpoint 6: The fiscal deficit will increase.
China's national treasury has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, such as $65,438+0,000 billion, which was originally worth 8 trillion, but now it is only worth 7 trillion. Because state-owned banks want to buy foreign exchange and issue it to the market in RMB, when the RMB appreciates, it will affect the issuance and circulation of currency and the stability of monetary policy.
Viewpoint 7. It's bad for China's economy.
Corporate profits have been affected and the fiscal deficit has increased. Of course, economic depression and deflation will inevitably follow. These years should not be too severe, and the stamina will be when a large number of overseas hot money are evacuated and the economic bubble bursts;
Viewpoint 8: RMB appreciation is beneficial to Japan.
Due to the appreciation of the yen in previous years, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for many years. Now, only when the RMB appreciates and the Japanese yen depreciates, the goods exported by Japan will be more competitive. It seems that we in China should first boycott everything that is beneficial to Japan.
Viewpoint 9. The appreciation of RMB is unfavorable to China's oil enterprises.
Imported oil is cheap, which hurts the interests of state-owned enterprises.
Viewpoint 10. Crack down on tourism
As the cost of traveling to China increases, the number of tourists will decrease. Tourism income belongs to non-labor income.
Viewpoint 10. The appreciation of RMB is beneficial to imports.
The same money can buy back more things. But for agriculture, this is a nightmare, which will threaten the national agricultural security, because our agricultural competitiveness is not as good as that of the United States.
Other views:
The appreciation of RMB brings about a decline in export benefits.
Before the reform of RMB exchange rate system, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 8.27: 1. This exchange rate has been implemented for more than ten years. According to this exchange rate, you earn $65,438+0,000 from export, which can be converted into RMB 8,270 in the bank. Today, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is about 7.55: 1. Now you export US$ 65,438+0,000, and you can only exchange RMB 7,550 in the bank, which is less than a year ago. What if we export $654.38+$00,000? Reduced the income of 720,000 RMB.
China is an export-dependent country, and its dependence on foreign trade is around 90%. In the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, more than 60% of the income of regular enterprises comes from exports. The appreciation of the renminbi has sharply reduced corporate profits, so people often think of layoffs and salary cuts. What? Raise the price of export products? Export enterprises are not monopoly enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec and Huaneng Power. If they want to rise, they will rise. It is difficult for export enterprises to increase 1 cent. Therefore, after the appreciation of the RMB, the overall profit of the business community fell, and both bosses and wage earners could not escape the blame.
The expectation of RMB appreciation has increased foreign investment in China.
The appreciation of RMB will have inertia and will rise higher than its actual value. When foreign investors see this, they will increase their investment in China, otherwise they will invest more and buy less in the future. Moreover, the investment targets will mainly focus on some "value-preserving" projects such as land, real estate, mining and monopoly enterprise equity. However, when the money came, the domestic supply did not increase so fast, and of course the price went up.
Of course, as incomes fall and prices rise, people become poorer. Of course, if the consumption is mainly concentrated on buying imported products, it will have less impact on you.
Forecast: 1. If the RMB continues to appreciate, China's cost advantage will be even smaller, and the foreign capital of manufacturing enterprises will gradually withdraw from China, looking for countries with lower prices, such as Viet Nam. At the same time, house prices will be higher. Why do you say that? Because in a place where prices are high and it is not suitable for other things, buying a house is the simplest and reliable investment. Hong Kong is an extreme example of this. Second, when the RMB reaches the highest point by inertia, smart foreign investors will see that the RMB is actually not worth that much money, and will try to change the RMB into foreign currency and leave China quietly. When investors sell RMB and buy foreign currency, the amount of RMB in circulation will increase and the price will swell sharply. I wonder if the government can get by.