The so-called "follow the trend, move with the trend, follow the trend, follow the trend" emphasizes the decisive role of the situation in the development of things. What kind of situation determines what kind of development model and direction. In the 30 years before the financial crisis, under the situation of global economic division and cooperation, China chose the development path of "international OEM" and made great progress. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, the world economy was severely impacted, and all countries were looking for straws. Even developed economies such as the United States and Europe have to reflect on traditional and recognized economic theories and try to explore new economic models. China is also facing drastic adjustment. As the saying goes, "a key opens a lock", analyzing and solving problems with old thinking and old theory in the new situation is like pulling a boat for a sword.
In the final analysis, the domestic and international situation and its own situation ultimately determine the development path of China.
Second, the international situation-international sanctions will persist for a long time, foreign markets will shrink sharply, and international capital is eager to try to copy China.
Due to the intensification of the financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the decline of the virtual economy and the decline of the real economy has been accelerated, forcing the employment and people's livelihood in developed economies in Europe and America to encounter a cold winter, and also making European and American countries clearly realize the importance of developing a complete economic system (an economic system in which the virtual economy and the real economy develop simultaneously). As a result, the United States took the lead in choosing the road of economic transformation, and began to abandon the international professional division of labor that has been advertised (that is, the United States specializes in design and intellectual property rights, while developing countries do physical production and processing) and transform and develop an "integrated" local industrial chain economy. To this end, Obama put forward the "Made in America" economic recovery plan, developing an independent economic system and getting rid of people (mainly China). At the same time, European countries have further increased their dependence on "self-sufficient economy" and vigorously protected local manufacturing industries. However, the biggest threat that hinders the transformation of development mode in Europe and America is the cheap "Made in China" that Europe and America have been doing for 30 years. Since 2008, the United States and Europe have directly or indirectly resisted and cracked down on China's exports by intervening in exchange rates, raising international material prices, anti-dumping sanctions, manipulating hot money, restricting technology exports, military threats, politicizing territorial disputes, and politicizing human rights and environmental protection. Their purpose can be described as killing two birds with one stone: First, reduce competition, create a development environment, and strive for precious time for the revitalization of manufacturing in Europe and the United States. Second, it forced China's economy and people's livelihood to decline, and forced China to open its domestic market. In this way, Europe and the United States can rely on their own technological and financial advantages to participate in, dominate and control the China market more and earn more benefits. This blow will continue until Europe and America form a powerful manufacturing system synchronized with the virtual economy and seize more market share in China. I expect it will last for 4-5 years.
More terrible situation: First, once Europe and the United States form manufacturing advantages, they will further form absolute control over global manufacturing and core technology fields. Even if China starts to upgrade its technology at the same time, limited by the level of technology and talents, the degree of manufacturing deviation in China will increase in the future. Even if China opens the export markets of developing countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America, it will be greatly discounted by the interference of competition at the same level and political contradictions. So I think it will be more and more difficult for China to continue to rely on processing export trade in the future. Second, once foreign capital and technology successfully enter China on a large scale, its advantages in operating cost, product performance and product price will impact China's national enterprises (state-owned enterprises and private enterprises), and domestic economic competition will become fierce in the future. If the quality of China's national economy is not good in the future, the China market will be greatly plundered, and China's right to speak in the domestic and international markets will be greatly challenged.
Third, the domestic situation-unbalanced development shakes the economic foundation, domestic economic difficulties are prominent, and capital and technology have become a major bottleneck for development.
The first crisis is the single export orientation for many years, which makes most industries in China excessively concentrated on low-end export processing trade with high energy consumption and high consumables. When the financial crisis and man-made attacks from Europe and the United States forced overseas markets to shrink, China's export trade instantly fell to the historical freezing point, and a large number of overcapacity and overproduction could not be digested. A large number of industrial chains are stagnant or shrinking, and many enterprises in coastal areas have closed down, stopped production or are sluggish, endangering national economic security. The second crisis is the strong export surplus in the past, which intensified the expansion of foreign exchange reserves and the flow of RMB. Crazy capacity overdraft has also induced the price increase of energy, raw materials and labor costs. Coupled with abnormal speculation in real estate, imported inflation, and lack of administrative supervision, it eventually led to soaring national prices and rampant speculation, endangering social stability. What's more, these two crises are mutually causal and cyclical, which further aggravates the crisis and leads to a dilemma between economic development and people's livelihood assistance. Although the central government has implemented a series of countermeasures, the systemic economic and social crisis accumulated in the past 30 years will not be eliminated at once, and the disharmony and instability in industry, people's livelihood, prices, credit, energy and environment will continue.
Fourthly, the future development direction of China-the development of endogenous economy and large-scale foreign mergers and acquisitions will become two mainstream contents.
(A) Endogenous economy will be the lifeline, and balanced development will become the theme of development.
China is in a contradictory situation of overcapacity, low-grade production capacity, high production cost, shrinking production capacity digestion market, limited technological innovation and gradual loss of international pricing power, and the gap between capital and technology is serious. China can neither expand the market immediately, nor innovate and upgrade immediately, let alone influence the price of international trade. Therefore, judging from the changes of the current situation, in the next 5 ~ 10 years, China can only and must rely on the endogenous economy, gradually slow down the export economy, reverse and position the domestic market, activate and release the domestic consumption potential, rely on the consumption orientation and the high-quality, harmonious and sustainable development of China's domestic economy, and take the opportunity of conditionally opening the domestic market to make good use of foreign capital. (The Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for China's National Economic and Social Development and the 20112 and12 Central Economic Work Conferences imply that this aspect should be adjusted).
The transformation and development of endogenous economy will objectively force local governments and enterprises to gradually abandon the previous ideas and methods of export-oriented processing trade and export trade, change the export profit model, and focus on national and local markets. Among them, first, local governments will really attach importance to and handle the relationship between "reform, development and stability" and "speed and quality", attach importance to industrial safety, eliminate development bottlenecks, make good use of domestic and foreign capital, develop local primary, secondary and tertiary industries in a balanced way, and fully rely on domestic trade taxes; Second, China's industries (state-owned enterprises, foreign enterprises and private enterprises) will enter a cruel period of merger and integration. They will digest the past excess capacity as soon as possible, transform the domestic market, integrate the supply chain from scratch, invest in scientific research and development, design logistics networks, lay out marketing channels, step up the layout of national distribution, merge and reorganize the production capacity of the same industry, and finally become the industry leader.
On February 26th, 65438, five large central enterprises, including China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, China Datang Group, China Communication Group and China Bingzhuang Group, signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Zhejiang provincial government. At the signing ceremony, dozens of central enterprises also signed 52 cooperation projects with relevant departments, cities, counties and local enterprises of various ownership systems in Zhejiang Province, with the agreed investment scale exceeding 270 billion yuan. This marks the beginning of economic transformation.
The main driving forces of endogenous economy are:
The first level is enterprises (state-owned enterprises, foreign enterprises and private enterprises) that directly provide final consumer products. They are the most urgent and determined group. Specifically, it includes: First, enterprises engaged in domestic economy. They will deepen the layout of traditional industries, and at the same time use brand and market advantages to horizontally extend and expand related industries. The second is to export to domestic industries. They will accelerate the digestion and upgrading of production capacity, cultivate brands and markets, and seize market share. The third is scientific research units. They will speed up market promotion and strive to promote the grafting, transformation and application of scientific research results. The fourth is the market operation organization. They will speed up the establishment of sales online stores all over the country, such as wholesale shopping malls, chain shopping malls, direct stores and so on. To explore the market with enterprises by means of agency, equity participation, cooperation and joining. Fifth, logistics and transportation institutions. They will first open up the logistics channels all over the country and realize the spatial layout.
The second level is the government. Local governments will vigorously develop key industries related to people's livelihood and sustainable economic development.
The third level is basic raw materials, energy enterprises and financial, insurance and guarantee enterprises. Such enterprises will follow the agglomeration according to the degree and expectation of the first-class enterprises. Including equipment manufacturing, steel, chemicals, agricultural products, petroleum, banks, insurance companies, leasing institutions, etc.
(2) Large-scale foreign investment in China and large-scale mergers and acquisitions of China enterprises.
Due to the temptation of China's future consumer market, China's extreme thirst for capital and technology, and the strategic plan of foreign capital invading China, from next year or the year after, foreign capital will fully enter China's capital market and real economy (except the media and communication market strictly prohibited by China government), and increase its participation, dominance and control over China's economy. At present, foreign investors from all walks of life are waiting to see the deterioration and bottoming out of China's economy. If the international environment and domestic situation show signs of long-term deterioration, foreign capital will be ready to move: first, foreign capital will hunt down China enterprises on a large scale, acquire and merge China enterprises on a large scale, integrate and transform the original enterprise resources, and quickly seize the China market. The second is to set up factories directly in China and directly seize the domestic market share of emerging industries and traditional industries. The third is to participate in infrastructure construction and social and people's livelihood construction in all parts of China. As the saying goes, "fortunes depend on each other", and danger is also an opportunity. The entry of foreign capital can bring capital and technology, and it can also force domestic enterprises to accelerate the pace of reform and innovation, and the price can also be effectively reduced. China's correct use of this opportunity will bring great development opportunities to China.
In the end, China will spontaneously form new economic divisions based on the relationship between resource supply, industrial agglomeration, economic radiation and regional transportation, and the new economic zones will spread all over the country, leading and driving the national economic development. This reshuffle is something that China has to face, and this opportunity period is also the biggest development opportunity that China has ushered in since the reform and opening up in the 1980s. But the new economic zone is different from the old economic zones such as Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Bohai Rim and Chengdu-Chongqing. Economic development zones such as the Yangtze River Delta are single export processing economic zones that attach importance to GDP. Due to the consistency of export market and the homogeneity of products, repeated construction and fierce competition in the economic zone make the actual income efficiency low; The new economic zone is an emerging economy with the goal of improving the quality and quantity of social consumption and people's livelihood in the region, sound industrial categories, balanced construction of one, two and three, and simultaneous development of economy and people's livelihood. Because the market is relatively independent and fixed, the competition between new economic zones is relatively less, and enterprises with more advantages pay more attention to and improve the comprehensive service efficiency and service quality, rather than simply winning by price. Therefore, the willingness and motivation for the expansion and in-depth development of endogenous economy are strong.
Excerpt from Global Financial Watch