Generally speaking, the "black swan" incident refers to something that meets the following three characteristics: unexpected; Have a significant impact; Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for it afterwards, which is more or less explained and predictable.
Black swan exists in all fields, no matter financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control.
The logic of "black swan" is that what you don't know is more meaningful than what you know. In the development of human society, what will have a great impact on our history and society is usually not what we know or what we can foresee. The stock market will suddenly collapse, and the American real estate bubble will lead to the subprime mortgage crisis that no one expected. A sudden heavy snow will paralyze most parts of China and bring hundreds of billions of losses ... We are actually surrounded by "black swans" every day. Even if you stay indoors, it is not difficult to appreciate the influence of the black swan. Take a look at your own living environment and count the major events, events, technological changes and inventions that have happened around you since you were born. How many people do you think there are? Look at your own life, your career choice, your meeting with your lover, your friend's betrayal, becoming rich or poor, the stock market ups and downs ... how many of these things happened as planned?
The black swan event in the financial market is characterized by a sudden change in market trend, that is, the original market trend will suddenly end without warning, and there will be a unilateral market that strongly reverses the original trend.
The arrival of the first black swan in the gold market occurred in 1933 ~ 1934. After the Great Depression, Roosevelt's New Deal declared it illegal for private owners to hold gold, stipulating that private gold was charged at $20.67 per ounce. Then Congress legislated to set the price of gold at $35 per ounce, and the dollar quickly depreciated by 69%.
The arrival of the second black swan in the gold market occurred on August 197 1. US President Nixon issued a statement to terminate the obligation to exchange US dollars for gold, openly and unilaterally tearing up the Bretton Woods Agreement. In the next few years until1pet-name ruby 80, the price of gold rose from $35 to $850.
The famous Black Swan and its influence on Titanic
At that time, the largest luxury passenger ship in the world was called "unsinkable dream passenger ship". No one thought it would sink. It sailed from Southampton, England to new york on April 19 12, but it was there. On the fourth night of the flight, it sank because it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic. Due to the lack of enough lifeboats, 1500 people were buried at the bottom of the sea in this "black swan incident", which has become the most famous shipwreck so far.
financial crisis
Long-term capital management companies have established a complex quantitative model based on historical data, thinking that interest rates in emerging markets will decrease, while interest rates in developed countries are the opposite, so they buy a large number of emerging market bonds and short US Treasury bonds. To everyone's surprise, 19, in August, 2009, Russia announced the devaluation of the ruble and delayed the repayment of its foreign debt for three months. The Russian national debt depreciated sharply and completely lost its liquidity. From the Russian financial turmoil in May to the total collapse in September, well-known hedge funds. The net asset value of gold fell by 90% in just 150 days, resulting in a huge loss of $4.3 billion, leaving only $500 million, which is on the verge of bankruptcy. The sharp depreciation of Russian national debt is a black swan that no one can foresee, which once again confirms this view: financial markets are unprepared for unpredictable emergencies.
"9 1 1" event.
On the morning of 200 1 September, Americans were about to start their day's work when terrorists hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in new york and the Pentagon in Washington. The Black Swan incident caused more than 3,000 deaths, and the American economy was once paralyzed, and the huge economic losses could not be counted by numbers. This is a typical black swan event. Unexpectedly, it has a great impact.
Snow disaster in China
During the Spring Festival of 20о 8, a large range of rain and snow weather occurred continuously from west to east in China, involving Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi and other provinces 14. This "black swan" in winter makes crops suffer. The affected area is 42 19.8 thousand hectares. 107,000 houses collapsed and 399,000 houses were damaged; The direct economic loss due to the disaster was 22.09 billion yuan.
Japan earthquake
On March 1 1, 1, the Japan Meteorological Agency said that an earthquake measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale occurred in Japan at 1 1, 14: 46 local time. The epicenter was located in the Pacific Ocean east of Miyagi Prefecture, with a focal depth of 20 kilometers. There was a strong earthquake in Tokyo. The US Geological Survey revised the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred in Japan that day from 8.9 on the Richter scale to 8.8 on the Richter scale. The earthquake was felt in a small part of northern Beijing, and it will not have obvious influence on China, China and Chinese mainland. However, the tsunami triggered by this earthquake will affect most parts of the Pacific Ocean. On March 13, Beijing time, the Japan Meteorological Agency revised the magnitude to 9.0 again.
European debt crisis
Everyone knows that the financial crisis will not pass easily, but no one expected that the other black swan is European debt, which appears in the form of debt crisis-from national credit, that is, the government's assets and liabilities are in crisis.
From June, 5438 to February, 2009, the three major rating companies, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch, downgraded Greece's sovereign debt respectively, which triggered a series of "butterfly effects": the credit ratings of "PIIGS in five European countries" (Portugal, Italy-Italy, Ireland-Ireland, Greece and Spain-). Among the five European countries in debt crisis, Italy is undoubtedly the most concerned. Its debt is huge and it plays an important role in the euro zone. Therefore, when the European debt crisis finally spread to Italy, both overseas markets and A-share markets responded quickly. In manager Ji Jin's view, this undoubtedly greatly increased the uncertainty of A-share rebound, which needs to arouse enough vigilance.
"The strength of A-share rebound caused by' fine-tuning' of policies mainly depends on the degree of relaxation of policies, but from the current situation, the strength of' fine-tuning' is less than market expectations; Moreover, although the liquidity tension has eased, it has not been transmitted to the A-share market from the recent A-share transactions. Therefore, most investors do not have high expectations for this round of A-share rebound. At this time, if Italy's debt crisis and escalation trigger global market volatility, it is easy to stimulate investors' profit-taking ideas. "A fund manager told reporters," What's more, the European debt crisis has developed to Italy, and its variables have greatly increased. In the future, "black swan" incidents may occur frequently. At this time, investors need to be vigilant. "
Charles, an industry insider, used "deep water bomb" to describe the new stage that the European debt crisis may enter. He pointed out that the potential of Greece's debt default has led to violent fluctuations in overseas markets, and Italy's debt amount and euro zone status are far from comparable to Greece. Therefore, the volatility of overseas markets around the Italian debt crisis may be more intense in the future.
Guangda Wulong
1 16, August 2065438, at 0: 05 a.m., the Shanghai Composite Index changed to a dead plate, and the index curve rose linearly. Within three minutes, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 5%. Because this day is Friday, it is also the delivery date of the stock index futures contract in August. For a time, "the theory of good news" and "the theory of Yin Mou" were circulated one after another. The theory of "good news" has spread, the preferred stock policy has been implemented, the blue chip has to implement T+0, and the stamp duty has to be reduced. It is said that there are large funds trying to interfere with the settlement price on the delivery date of the futures index, and so on. A few minutes later, some media pointed out that the index change was caused by the oolong finger of Everbright Securities, but the market did not believe that the index continued to rise. At noon, the director of Everbright Securities claimed that the "Oolong Finger" did not exist, which made the matter more confusing and seriously interfered with the judgment of some people in the market. When the market opened in the afternoon, Everbright Securities suspended trading. At the same time, it was announced that the strategic investment department of Everbright Securities operated independently. However, there is a problem in using its independent arbitrage system, and the company is carrying out relevant verification and disposal work. At this point, the abnormal fluctuation of the index was confirmed to be caused by the "Oolong Finger" of Everbright Securities. After investors learned the truth, the popularity dispersed and the index fell step by step. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0. 64%.？
Oolong refers to something. The parties who suffered losses may be the following categories: First, the followers whose share price fluctuated greatly after the completion of Everbright's operational mistakes, and then their share price fell. This is a wave of victims. These people hope to make compensation through litigation, not to mention whether the lawsuit is supported and whether the claim can be successful. From the insurance point of view, whether there is legal liability for compensation is the premise of insurance settlement, but it is obvious that
The second group of people who suffered losses were shareholders of China Everbright, because a large part of the market value of China Everbright has evaporated after the incident, and their losses can be compensated to a certain extent through the liability insurance of directors and executives, because one of the starting conditions of Gaodong Insurance is the claim for compensation caused by the negligence of the enterprise management team or the supervisor of the management company. "(Even taking Gaodong Insurance as an example, China Company 100% buy buy, which is listed in the United States, heard that 50% of the companies listed in Hong Kong bought in buy buy, and less than 5% of the buyers).
The third kind of loss is the customer of the brokerage firm, Everbright. Information shows that this operation does not belong to the brokerage industry, which means that customers may not suffer any damage. However, inspired by this incident, if you want to gain the trust of customers or avoid possible risk responsibilities, brokers can choose to insure financial machine, structural and industry liability insurance.
The fourth kind of damage is the enterprise's own operation, which may be solved by a blanket insurance for financial machines and structures. For example, the fraudulent behavior of some employees leads to direct losses of financial machines and structures, which can be covered by this insurance under the agreement of relevant policies.
Plasticizer storm pushes "delicious" to "delicious"
After the plasticizer storm broke out, not only alcoholic liquor was hit hard and fell again and again, but other liquor stocks were also dragged down, which made the whole sector once depressed. In this regard, many well-known wine companies such as LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Yanghe Co., Ltd. have publicly stated that their products absolutely do not contain plasticizers to boost market confidence. We believe that although the liquor sector is weak in the short term, in the long term, the plasticizer industry is conducive to accelerating the integration of the liquor industry, thus helping leading companies to increase their market share in the fierce competition.
First of all, compared with other sub-industries of food and beverage, the concentration of liquor industry is still very low, and the overall space in the future is huge. According to statistics, the top three income concentration ratios in liquor industry are only 12%, and the output concentration ratio is only 3%. This situation is not only related to the limited production capacity of leading wine enterprises, but also related to the separatist regime of local forces in the liquor industry and the fact that many local wines are still in the stage of fighting. The plasticizer storm will lead to the closure of many small wineries with substandard equipment below the scale. In the future, leading wine companies may increase their market share through mergers and acquisitions.
Secondly, the liquor industry experienced the golden age of 2009-20 1 1, and the growth rate slowed down obviously. Since the beginning of the year, liquor revenue and profit have shown a downward trend (financial resources). In view of the huge output of the whole liquor industry, we expect that the overall output of the liquor industry will gradually shrink in the future, and this wave of plasticizers will accelerate the shrinking speed of the industry. Consumers will change from "drinking more" to "drinking less" and from "drinking well" to "drinking well". The change of consumers' consumption concept of liquor will promote the market share to gradually concentrate on leading enterprises.
Therefore, although the plasticizer incident once caused the liquor sector to plummet, we still have confidence in the leading varieties. We believe that the future consumption demand of liquor will focus on these leading varieties, and they will be the ultimate beneficiaries of this incident.
Seal the knife. Aier ophthalmic contusion
20 12 In February, Cai Ruifang, an ophthalmology professor at Taiwan Province Medical University, who first introduced laser myopia correction surgery in Taiwan Province and Taiwan Province, announced that because myopia correction surgery is easy to produce sequelae, many patients who underwent surgery in that year's vision decreased significantly after 10 years, "this kind of surgery will not be done again".
As soon as this statement came out, the media questioned the safety of myopia surgery. Affected by this, Aier Ophthalmology (3000 15) once fell by nearly 5% after opening on February15, and closed down by 2.49%.
Subsequently, Aier Ophthalmology issued a clarification announcement that the operation has been going on for more than 20 years and has now developed into a quite safe and mature operation. A doctor in Taiwan Bay thinks that the operation will have sequelae, which is only his personal opinion.
However, the controversy about the safety of surgery has been endless. After the knife-sealing incident, the share price of Aier Ophthalmology has not been able to get rid of its weakness. Yesterday's closing price was 20.5 1 yuan, down 10% from February before the incident.
Britain leaves the European Union. 2065438+On June 24th, 2006, Britain announced its withdrawal from the EU by referendum. Affected by this, the global financial market reacted rapidly and violently, and the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar plummeted by more than 1.000 basis points, hitting the lowest level since 1.9. British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned.
Trump won the US presidential election. At about 10/0.08 pm EST (Beijing time165438+/kloc-0+/0.00), the Republican candidate. This incident also exceeded the expectations of mainstream media and analysts, and also caused a serious impact on the financial market. On the day of voting, the price of gold rose by more than 50 dollars, and then it turned around and plummeted because of speculative buying.
Italy failed to vote for the constitutional amendment. On February 5, 65438+, Italian general Li Renzi announced the failure of constitutional reform after popular vote and offered to resign. This is the second "black swan" to fly out of Europe after Britain withdrew from the European Union. Affected by the news that the public investment failed, the global market fluctuated. EUR/USD fell 1.3% to 1.0534 USD, the lowest since March 20 15. EUR/JPY fell 1.5% to 1 19.38. ?
The above three events can be called the three black swan events in 20 16, and 20 16 is also called the first year of black swan.