The prospect of escalating the European debt crisis has added more variables.
Recently, due to the growing concern about the possible debt default in Greece, the orderly bankruptcy of Greece will become a hot spot in the market; The downgrade of the ratings of the two major banks in France has further triggered market concerns about the banking crisis. A series of events show that after more than a year's efforts, the European Union not only failed to solve the Greek debt problem smoothly, but also the European debt crisis spread to more countries and the financial market turmoil intensified. The possibility of debt crisis and banking crisis exists, and the operating mechanism of the euro and the European Union is facing an unprecedented test.
Not long ago, Moody's downgraded the long-term bond credit rating of Societe Generale from Aa2 to Aa3, and downgraded the long-term bond credit rating of Credit Agricole from Aa 1 to Aa2. Although the downgrade was expected, it still caused new concerns in European financial markets. Figures show that by the end of February 20 10, the total direct exposure of global banks to Greece was as high as160.9 billion US dollars, of which European countries accounted for130/kloc-0.0 billion US dollars. Among them, the French banking industry, as the largest creditor in Greece, has a total exposure to Greek private and public debts of $56.7 billion. According to the European Union's second rescue plan for Greece on July 2 1, European banks made a substantial write-down of their Greek bonds, which made the market full of worries about their profit prospects.
Jiang, strategist of Guotai Junan Securities, analyzed that the worst situation at present is the formation of default expectations, heavy losses of European banks, market panic and a run, which led to a sudden tightening of liquidity in European countries, just like the domino effect after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the United States. Once there is a liquidity crisis in Europe, its impact will be even greater than the collapse of Lehman Brothers that year. Because in addition to Germany and other European countries, American banks also hold a large number of European national debts, which means that the crisis will spread rapidly from Europe to the United States.
Huang, managing director of Barclays Capital and chief analyst of Asian emerging market economy research department, even believes that the European debt crisis not only means that the euro zone member countries are facing the risk of sovereign debt default, but also evolves into a banking credit crisis, thus becoming the "number one killer" threatening the fate of global economic recovery.
However, how to save the European debt crisis, EU countries have not yet reached a complete agreement. Barroso, President of the European Commission, said recently that he did not agree to set up a new European-level economic authority to deal with the European debt crisis. This means that there are major differences in the crisis solutions advocated by the leaders of the EU and Germany and France, and the prospect of the European debt crisis will add more variables.
Risk exposure is minimal, and external demand pressure is expected to rise.
The European debt crisis continues to spread, and the biggest victim is actually the banking industry. In the interview, experts generally believe that because the proportion of euro assets held by commercial banks in China is extremely small, and most of them are loan assets, the risk exposure is basically negligible.
According to Ma Jun, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank, at present, except for China Bank, almost no other domestic banks have exposure to European debt, which translates into RMB 654.38+0 billion.
Bian Wei Hong, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China, also revealed to reporters in an interview that at present, China basically does not hold Greek government bonds, and its Italian government bonds account for only 4% of the total Italian government bonds, which is small in scale and has little direct loss. She believes that, comparatively speaking, the greater impact is China's external demand, and even the real economy.
The data shows that since the second quarter of 20 10, the growth rate of China's trade with the EU has entered a downward channel. From January to August, 2065438+0/KLOC-0, the growth rate of China's exports to the EU was flat, only -2.6% from the previous month, which was lower than the average level of 5% since 2000. In the first eight months, China's exports to the EU increased by 18.5% year-on-year, which was lower than the average growth rate of 23.9% since 2000.
In fact, the impact of the European debt crisis does not stop there. According to Zhu, chief economist of CITIC Securities, on the one hand, the release of the impact of the European debt crisis on the real economy needs a process, and there is a time lag in the transmission to China through the trade field; On the other hand, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction and rapid expansion of trade with emerging economies have made up for the shortcomings of external demand left by shrinking European demand. Therefore, the impact of the European debt crisis on China's economy has not been fully reflected.
It can be predicted that under the impact of the debt crisis, the recovery of the core countries in the euro zone will almost certainly slow down. Zhu believes that China's exports to Europe account for as much as 20% of its total exports. According to the trend of OECD, the leading indicator of the euro zone, and its judgment on China's export growth rate, China's external demand will certainly bear greater pressure in the future.