It is understood that the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio refers to the ratio of the foreign exchange deposit reserve deposited by financial institutions in the central bank to the foreign exchange deposits absorbed by them. The purpose of reducing this ratio is to moderately increase the foreign exchange liquidity of the market, increase the supply of foreign exchange funds in the hands of financial institutions to the market, thus changing the relationship between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, thus alleviating the pressure of RMB depreciation and stabilizing the RMB exchange rate.
Chang Ran, a senior researcher at Trust Investment Research Institute, explained that the central bank's move released three signals:
First, increase foreign exchange liquidity to adjust the relationship between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and help stabilize the RMB exchange rate. The most direct effect of reducing the foreign exchange reserve ratio is to increase the amount of foreign exchange funds available to commercial banks, thus increasing the foreign exchange supply in the market. At the end of March 2022, the balance of foreign exchange deposits was $654.38+005 billion. The reduction of the foreign exchange reserve ratio from 9% to 8% this time means releasing about $654.38+005 billion in foreign exchange liquidity to the market. In view of the current situation of RMB oversupply in the foreign exchange market, appropriate reverse adjustment will help reduce the depreciation of RMB in recent days and help maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate.
Second, this move will help reduce the expectation of RMB exchange rate depreciation, and the significance of policy signal release is even more important. In June last year 165438+ 10, the foreign exchange administration department put forward for the first time that "the deviation is directly proportional to the correction strength", that is, when the RMB exchange rate fluctuates abnormally, the relevant parties will "intervene" in time when necessary. The reduction of the foreign exchange reserve ratio is a concrete manifestation, which sends a clear policy signal to the participants who unilaterally bet on RMB depreciation, indicating that the authorities will take corresponding measures to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable.
Third, the downward adjustment is relatively cautious. 202 1 in view of the strong appreciation of RMB in the whole year, the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio twice in June and 12, each time by 2 percentage points. At present, the RMB exchange rate should be sharply depreciated, and 1 percentage point should be lowered. It is not excluded to use other adjustment tools to stabilize the exchange rate in the future. Of course, there is still room for further reduction in the foreign exchange reserve ratio.
What is the future trend of RMB exchange rate? In recent years, the central bank has always stressed that the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will be the normal state, and there will be no unilateral appreciation or depreciation. "In the future, the RMB exchange rate will show a high probability of two-way fluctuation and remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level." In response to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that China's economy has strong resilience, the long-term positive development trend has not changed, the balance of payments structure is stable, the current account maintains a reasonable surplus, and RMB assets have long-term investment value, which will provide fundamental support for the basic stability of RMB exchange rate.