I. Classification of rich and poor countries in the world
It is strange to look at the per capita GDP data of countries around the world. It is necessary to make a more detailed division:
Developed countries and regions: the United States and Canada in North America; European countries except Eastern Europe; Australia and New Zealand in Oceania; Japan and Israel among the four little dragons in Asia. A ***28, the per capita annual GDP is 40,000 US dollars, and the low is 5,000 US dollars.
Countries rich in oil resources: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman are typical representatives, including some small countries in West Asia, North Africa and Latin America. Iraq and Libya were rich, but the United States made them miserable. Iran and Venezuela also count. The per capita GDP of these countries is above $6,543,800 and below $3,000.
Well-off society: Eastern European countries (including Russia) plus Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Peru, Thailand, Malaysia, Jordan, Syria, South Africa and some small African countries. The per capita GDP of these countries is below 4,000 and above 1000. Those small African countries are a little surprising. Botswana, Gabon, I don't know how to earn more than 1000 or even more than 3000.
Poor countries: In addition to the above, the per capita GDP of other countries is poor, which is less than $65,438+0,000 a year. To name a few, most African countries, Latin American banana countries, all South Asian countries, Southeast Asian countries except Singapore and Mattel, Central Asian countries, China, South Korea and Mongolia.
If we compare the two statistics in the last decade of the last century, we will find that the composition of those developed countries is the most stable. Even 20 years have not changed. If you consider 30 years, then add the four little dragons. In other words, the only change in the composition of developed countries after the stability of World War II is the addition of the four little dragons in Asia. In the past 20 years, no country has reached this level.
This is a rather strange thing. If oil countries are not considered, then the threshold of developed countries is about 5,000 US dollars per capita GDP. In fact, many well-off countries in the world, such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Malaysia and Thailand, were once very good, but they could not do it in 20 or 30 years. In fact, if we already have a per capita GDP of more than $2,000, we can reach 5,000 by economic miracle in less than ten years. You don't even have to move, and the currency appreciation will cross the threshold, just like the GDP changes after the four little dragons crossed the line and after a period of time. If the foundation is not particularly bad at first, and if there is rapid growth for 20 years in a row, then it is definitely possible to cross the line. It should be noted that in this case, the GDP growth rate in US dollars is usually greater than the economic growth rate, because there will almost certainly be additional effects such as currency appreciation. But after 20 years, no country can rush up, not one.
Think about it, how long can 20 years be? China has quadrupled in 20 years, and if it is willing to appreciate at all costs, it can quadruple in dollar terms. But none of those well-off countries in the world can rush up. Those developed countries didn't have $5,000 earlier, but they passed the threshold of growth and passed smoothly. No developing country tried to copy their success.
Not only for developing countries, the last decade of the last century was very tragic. Fifty-four countries are poorer than before ten years later. None of them are developed countries, but all of them are developing countries. The rest of the developing countries are either stagnant or growing slowly, with two notable exceptions: China and India.
Isn't this a strange thing? Is it so difficult to become a developed country? If you remove the oil-rich countries and the four little dragons, the fact is clear: it is really that difficult to become a developed country.
The internal reasons for this phenomenon are explained as follows.
Second, why not become a developed country?
As I said before, in the past 20 years, no developing country has succeeded in its struggle. The reasons within these countries may be as follows.
1. The temptation to sell resources is developing. There are many countries with excellent resources in China. If it is oil, it will be an instant hit. The people in these countries are content to live on resources, and only consider the way of spending money, without considering opening up other ways to make money.
If we embark on this road, the future of a country will be finished. The most serious thing is that people have no motivation to work hard and not study. It doesn't matter if you don't work hard for a while, just sell resources. The immediate threat is that jealous neighbors come in, so they have to buy weapons and hug the thighs of old imperialism. Worst of all, if the thigh you are holding is unhappy, it will become Iraq.
2. The lazy folk customs have dragged down most countries in Latin America and Africa. Folk customs can be said to be lazy. African brothers got paid and bought coke to drink in the street. Why not think about it in the future? Latin Americans have a better work attitude, but not so good. They like strikes and carnivals. The philosophy of Indians in South Asia is different. They think that time is not important in front of the eternal universe, and there is no hurry to do anything. People in Southeast Asian countries are not hardworking. This factor is obviously not conducive to economic development.
But these internal factors are not the main reasons. There are also lazy folk customs in developed countries. The French don't like work very much and always go on strike. Except those African brothers who really don't want to do anything, laziness is not very important. Latin American countries and Southeast Asian countries have also built many factories and had economic miracles. As long as you are willing to work, you have the ability to work. If there is no special disadvantage, the economy will always develop slowly. Because the economy has a natural growth trend, more factories make it easier to build other factories. In the end, it is not enough for these developing countries.
Globalization, as many people may know, is the main problem here. But through what process does globalization destroy the dreams of developed countries in these countries?
Globalization, global industrial division of labor, and expansion of world trade are conducive to global economic growth in accordance with the principles of complementary advantages. It looks very good. Some countries can indeed go through a similar process of globalization, from poor countries to rich countries. For example, in some Latin American and Southeast Asian countries, foreign capital from developed countries has come, factories have been built, or more people have come to visit, which is really prosperous. Even in resource-selling countries, there are many investments to dig up resources, and the people's eyes are wide open.
The trouble is that globalization is carried out according to the rules of developed countries. Those countries that participate in globalization learn from the experience of developed countries more or less. It may be through the IMF or the World Bank, but the creditor's rights are in the hands of developed countries. The original intention of borrowing money is that the country started from poverty and wanted to build a factory without money in Gai Lou. Then developed countries can provide it. This is the first dangerous step: borrowing money.
Those countries that are the least abrasive are really miserable. Poor African countries borrowed money to develop their economies and got rid of extreme poverty, but dictators or privileged classes ignored it. They either directly misappropriate funds and deposit them in banks in developed countries, or spend them on luxury goods and weapons, all of which flow back to developed countries. There is no factory anyway. When there is no money, when there is an economic crisis, we will continue to borrow money. Paying off debts or something, just using resources to offset the pressure. The final result of this game is that developed countries print paper money to poor countries, and poor countries will send it back in various ways in a short time. They have to give up their rights and interests in resources before they can afford to pay. When the resources are sold out, they still owe a lot of debts. Many countries have reached the final stage, lying there waiting for death. In the last decade of last century, poor African countries in sub-Saharan Africa paid a net amount of $654.38+0.2 billion to developed countries, not including the capital flowing into this region. There is nothing left. If there is a famine, we will wait for the relief of developed countries, and we will ask developed countries to forgive their debts. Developed countries are very kind. It is a relief to see that these countries really have nothing to resist. In the propaganda of western countries, only those last-minute rescues are the focus of the news. Ordinary people in western countries really feel kind, and so do people in some developing countries.
Latin American and Southeast Asian countries are better, building factories and cities. GDP has gone up, debts have been paid off with land, old debts have been paid off, and new debts have been borrowed to continue construction. The people are in a good mood, and it is quite glorious to rush to a well-off life, travel abroad and buy a car. At this time, some "small" problems appeared. Whether it's a fast pace, a big corrupt criminal or a bad world economic situation, in short, economic growth is not so smooth. Then, some construction projects based on growth expectations make the problem more and more serious. At this time, the developed countries came again. Just like the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, there were more debts, less foreign exchange reserves and more housing construction bubbles. Finally, under the attack, the currency depreciated. Judging from the GDP figures, it was overnight before liberation.
Why did such a big thing happen to those small problems? The economies of developed countries often encounter similar minor problems, which are at most a little negative growth. After the cycle has passed, its fundamentals will not be affected. Accidents in developing countries may be a discount. This comes down to another killer weapon of developed countries: structural adjustment.
Countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia have achieved initial results in construction and want to continue to borrow money for development. The IMF or the World Bank said they could borrow it, but they should listen to our advice. Some were forced, and some invited experts and scholars to design. Then experts from developed countries pointed out that the final result is that the industries invested by these countries are relatively biased through structural adjustment, and developed countries do not produce them; And these countries want some advanced products when they get rich. The developed countries say that we have it here, so you don't have to produce it. The production in your can't compete with us, which is inefficient. Forget it, let's do it well. Well-off developing countries look at it, yes. We have done a good job in making electric toys and raising cattle. People have ideas and money, so let them spend them. So the door opened and the products of big companies in developed countries entered the market.
After structural adjustment, I found that I was cheated. You can earn a little money by doing these things yourself, which is better than selling resources, but you can't make much money. You must earn a lot of money if you want to continue to develop. Those activities that make a lot of money are monopolized by developed countries. Our country is to develop advanced industries, where other people's products compete. That's all. What's even more frightening is that all the work I did well didn't count. I'm afraid it's impossible to compete with China in making electric toys. It turned out to be a foreign investment. As a result, foreign capital went to China, and there was nothing they could do. There's no way to fix it.
So this is the story of well-off countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia: the economic crisis behind the economic "miracle". The miracle of Latin American countries in the 1970s, the crisis of the next 20 years, the miracle of Southeast Asia in the 1980s and the crisis of the 1990s. When the crisis ends, it is not periodic, but one-off. When it's over, you can't get up. It's not a business cycle.
Coupled with the self-explosion of those countries in Su Dongbo, most developing countries in the world are lying down. The remaining two: China and India. Let's start with these two countries.
Third, China and India.
As mentioned above, developing countries are basically finished, and it is tragic to sell all their resources and wait for death. At best, there is no hope after the economic crisis. Developed countries don't really care what their suffering is. As long as we can get the resources of these countries smoothly, we don't care The way is to sell the products to the rich in those countries at high prices for unequal exchange. To be clear, developed countries intend to design developing countries like this. Developing countries can choose to strive to become the economic backyard like Latin America, or they can not strive to become Africa completely.
However, India and China are still not completely reconciled. I said there was evidence that it was not done. Speaking of India, it is generally believed that this country is very poor, with a per capita GDP of over 400 and less than 500, which is the lowest among China developing China countries. China is not rich either. This year, it will basically reach $65,438+0,000, which is still behind many developing countries. But from a global perspective, rather than talking about GDP in general, China and India are significantly different from other developing countries.
If developing countries still have some technological capabilities, it is in China and India. These two countries can send satellites and build cars, and there are few developing countries. Brazilian rockets have been bombed several times without being sent up. The economic development of China and India is concealed by a large number of average population. China and India are the only developing countries with internationally competitive industries. If we only look at these industries and ignore a large number of idle people, the development level of China and India is higher than that of most developing countries. Because the hope of a country lies in industrial development, not in the temporary per capita GDP.
The economies of these two countries are basically independent. It is not that there is no foreign capital, but that the leadership of the two countries is not controlled by developed countries. The economic road was chosen independently in the past, and there is room for independent choice in the future. The rest of the developing countries have no choice. Want to choose freely? It is uncertain whether the people sitting in a democratic government are lackeys trained by the United States. Even if the president wants to rise from this economic order, it is not empty that there are a lot of bourgeois comprador under it. This is a life-and-death struggle. Isn't Chavez in Venezuela screwed up?
India's independence is strict. Since Nehru, India has developed a set of its own, which is considered to be the only one in the world to develop a socialist planned economy under a democratic system. Many people in India criticized Nehru for making India develop so slowly. This does make sense. India's economic control is too dead. But in other developing countries, India's independence is not bad. In the 1990s, India finally embarked on the road of independent reform and cultivated some competitive industries and large enterprises, such as software industry and pharmaceutical industry.
India's so-called economic reform in the 1990s was not reform and opening up, because India was very careful about opening up, which can be said to be too careful. China wants to buy iron ore from India, but India doesn't sell it. It has to make its own iron and sell it itself. As a result, China was short of steel in the past two years, so I bought a lot in India and let it wait. Foreign companies in India are hard to do, and KFC can't sell in India. India's economic development in the 1990s had little to do with foreign investment. The growth rate of 4-5% is not fast, but because it has been growing, it is not surprising that it has become a growth country second only to China. If China and India are excluded, there is almost no growth in developing countries in the 1990s, and accidents often occur. India has not benefited from foreign investment, but it has also prevented the disadvantages of foreign investment. I think India is very promising. The future is on the right track, and the prospects are better than those in Latin America and Southeast Asia. In recent years, India has also begun to attract foreign investment, which is to learn from China.
In my opinion, China's level of utilizing foreign capital is the highest among developing China countries, which is also a very important factor in the miracle of China's economic growth for 20 years. Although there are many articles criticizing the mistakes of China's foreign investment policy, from a global perspective, China's foreign investment policy has several remarkable advantages worth summarizing.
China's utilization of foreign debt is a model for developing countries. Over the years, I borrowed and returned, and borrowed again. Up to now, there are more than140 billion foreign debts, and many projects have been completed, which has not caused any trouble to the country. This can be said that no country in developing countries can do it. This is because the China government is very cautious in using foreign debts, and all the loans are on projects. China's ability and efficiency in managing foreign debts are the best among the developing China countries.
China's supervision on the utilization of foreign capital is very good in developing countries. Foreign investors should at least set up a factory or research center, so much the better if they provide technology. Not hot money. It is not easy to run. If foreign investors want to benefit from China, they must engage in production. No matter how sweatshop, there will always be income, and then the profits will be distributed. This is not a zero-sum game. China government still has restrictions on foreign investment. In some areas, foreign investment is not allowed, while in others, joint ventures are only allowed. The shares of a joint venture cannot exceed a percentage, and some areas can be wholly owned. Regardless of the specific details, the China government actually knows that some industries cannot be ceded to foreign capital. Foreign capital in most developing countries comes and goes freely, and they can do whatever they want, and even open banks.
The starting point of China government's utilization of foreign capital is good, which is to use foreign capital to upgrade technology. There are many mistakes in specific operations, but with this principle, you can always get some benefits. I think this principle is good, and the way to improve it is in concrete operation, so foreign investment is inevitable. With an independent government, there is hope to improve the specific operation. It should be said that the China government has this heart, which can be seen from the automobile industry. In terms of output, the automobile industry has made great progress, but the technical upgrading is not very good. However, it can't be said that China government wants foreign capital to manipulate the automobile industry. Over the years, there have been many policies to localize the automobile industry, such as the localization rate of automobiles. China has also done a good job in using foreign capital to upgrade its technology, and the electronic communication industry is one of them. Television is an imported Japanese technology, and now it can basically be independently developed, although some key modules have to be imported.
The communication industry has introduced several large foreign companies, and domestic companies compete with them, miraculously surviving and fighting abroad. This has never happened in developing countries. At present, the largest share of China's export products is electronic products, which has been China's killer weapon. Even developed countries can't do it in China.
Many people criticize the China government for "building a boat is not as good as buying a boat", but from a global perspective, it should be acknowledged that the China government is still good at developing manufacturing. In fact, only China, a developing country, has demonstrated the ability to compete with developed countries in manufacturing, which was not available at the beginning of reform and opening up. At the beginning of reform and opening up, things made in China were far from being sold to the whole world economically. At present, several industries in China are not developing well, such as aircraft manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. These are all criticized by people. But we should realize that if China can do these two industries well, won't it become a developed country? In fact, China has developed very well in other manufacturing industries, and it is easy to ignore the general trend by staring at two difficult spells.
There is another misunderstanding, that is, China relies on foreign capital to develop its economy, and foreign capital is engaged in sweatshops, so China people only do simple jobs in factories. In fact, sweatshops do not contribute much to China's GDP. Because these factories export products to foreign countries, only by earning a trade surplus can they be counted in GDP, which is only 20 to 30 billion US dollars a year.
It can be said that China's total import and export volume is virtual, but GDP is not. China's GDP is mainly developed by domestic demand. This trend can be represented by typical commodities. In 1980s and early 1990s, China's GDP development depended on household appliances such as televisions and washing machines, which was very real. Now, even poor people have these appliances in their homes more or less. Since the mid-1990s, even telephones, mobile phones and motorcycles have been affordable to ordinary people.
Then there is the real estate car. If ordinary people can afford it, it is a moderately developed country. Now we can only say that the elite can afford it. But it cannot be simply understood as an upper-level corrupt official in other developing countries. In fact, a large number of urban civilians can also buy cars and houses. In other words, China now has the largest number of middle classes in developing countries, one order of magnitude ahead of other countries and comparable to developed countries. Therefore, regardless of the dark side, China's urban life is similar to that of developed countries, and the quality of life may be better, because the price is low. This is not complacency, but shows that China has surpassed developing countries in history. Of course, there are still many problems. Sweatshops mainly solve the employment problem of some farmers, which is of little significance to the overall economic development of China.
From the general trend, China's economic miracle is of great significance to the world. This is the first time that a developing country has demonstrated its ability to challenge almost all manufacturing levels. In the past, those developing countries were guided by the structural adjustment of developed countries, giving up many industries and specializing in a few so-called advantageous industries. However, China has not received such guidance, but has been developing independently. China's present development posture is actually obvious, that is, from low-level industries to high-level industries, the first level is to occupy and eat, and if it is occupied, it will not give up. This is a terrible fact that happened in developing countries. It can be said that other developing countries have little room for development except selling resources. Southeast Asian countries are an obvious example. They lost to China in foreign investment, followed by the economic crisis. After the great development of economic and trade relations with China, China basically bought resource commodities, including tourism commodities, and a large number of manufacturing products from China occupied the Southeast Asian market. Mexico also suffers a lot, because it overlaps with China's advantageous industries, and it is sure that it can't compete. Therefore, it is dragging on China's entry into the WTO. We can't expect China's economy to improve, wages to rise, and industries to be transferred to other countries. There are hundreds of millions of farmers in China who have no jobs, so it is impossible to move to other countries. If they want to move, they will also move to the mainland of China, or hold a wave of migrant workers to let mainland migrant workers work in the coastal areas. India is the only country that can make a difference. So many people have set up sweatshops that it is not certain who will win the competition. But India doesn't seem to have thought about this road. It will be a long time before China can give up these industries at most after the real economic development is successful. At present, the government of China will not listen to the argument that there is no need for sweatshops for humanitarian reasons. So many unemployed farmers don't know what to do, and they would rather be called "black-hearted".
China is still occupying the world's intermediate industries, which I think is the greatest benefit of China's entry into WTO. Intermediate industries can stimulate the economy more than low-level industries. A TV set may not make much money when sold, but there are many parts in the production process, which can drive many manufacturers. In terms of global share, it is not as big as China's low-grade goods such as clothing, shoes and hats, but the situation is the same. China has the lowest cost and the quality is still rising. It is even more impossible for other countries to compete on this. Because this can't be done with low wages, it mainly depends on industrial agglomeration to reduce costs. The main supporting manufacturers are all in China, so it is more convenient to set up factories anywhere than in China. Now there is an avalanche effect, that is, the whole world goes to China to set up factories, without the propaganda of the China government. This is very powerful and will take effect soon.
As mentioned in the above paragraphs, my conclusion is that after 20 years of development, China's economy has become an unprecedented economic monster. For better or worse, we should face up to this monster. This is also the difference between China and Latin American countries in the 1970s and Southeast Asian countries in the 1980s. The development of these countries is partial, and China is catching up in an all-round way; When these countries are developed, they will inevitably face challenges from other developing countries, and China is an insignificant competitor. Therefore, it is too simple to predict a similar economic crisis in China, and we can't see the difference between China and them.
What stage has China's economy reached now? It is an unprecedented stage for developing countries: challenging developed countries. Now I want to look forward to what may happen in this challenge and talk about the experience of the four little dragons.