The existing customs trade statistics are based on whether the goods transit or not. However, the cross-border flow of goods does not necessarily mean that the ownership of goods is transferred between nationals of different countries. In addition, without cross-border commodity transactions, the ownership of commodities may also be transferred internationally. Trade statistics based on ownership can just make up for the above shortcomings of customs trade statistics based on whether goods cross national borders. We define the trade between nationals of different countries as "national trade", and the corresponding statistics are also called "national trade statistics". National trade statistics are based on whether the ownership of goods is transferred across borders between nationals. First, two concepts need to be clarified. First, the concept of nationals. It is generally believed that a national refers to a person who has acquired the nationality of a country. Nationals are the attributes of people, not institutions or things. The national attribute of an institution (such as an enterprise) is confirmed by the national attribute of its owner or actual controller. Second, the confirmation of commodity ownership. If an individual owns commodity ownership, the national attribute of the individual determines the national attribute of commodity ownership; If the institution owns the commodity ownership, then the national attribute of the institution determines the national attribute of the commodity ownership. Therefore, if the commodity transaction is accompanied by the transfer of ownership between nationals of different countries, it belongs to national foreign trade regardless of whether the commodity crosses national boundaries, otherwise it belongs to national internal trade. China has no national trade statistics. We only make a rough estimate of China's trade situation in recent years based on the available data. In the estimation, we assume (1) that there are not many "going out" enterprises in China, which have little impact on national trade, and the overseas operation data of these enterprises are difficult to obtain, so they are temporarily ignored; (2) China's national foreign trade only refers to the trade of goods; (3) Foreign-funded enterprises in China only buy intermediate inputs in China; (4) All the ownership or actual control rights of foreign-funded enterprises in China belong to foreigners. We have estimated the national trade between China and other countries in the world and between China and the United States, and the results show the following characteristics. First, although China had a trade surplus of $30 billion to $40 billion in cross-border trade from 1998 to 2004, China's foreign ethnic trade has always been a deficit, and the scale of the deficit is expanding rapidly. 198 China's national trade deficit was only $2 10 billion, but by 2004, the deficit had reached $0/38.7 billion. The difference between the trade balance of customs statistics and the national trade balance also increased from164.3 billion US dollars in 1998 to170.6 billion US dollars in 2004. Such a huge difference between the two has to make people marvel at the influence of foreign-funded enterprises on China's economic activities. Second, the import and export of customs statistics is lower than that of national trade, especially national imports are much higher than customs statistics. The estimated results show that the scale of China's cross-border imports is basically the same as that of China's domestic imports (purchases) from foreign-funded enterprises. The sales of foreign-funded enterprises in China can be understood as the export of foreign enterprises to China nationals, so as to avoid trade barriers and reduce trade costs. Therefore, customs statistics only measure half of China citizens' actual imports. Obviously, when the activities of foreign-funded enterprises in China are large, the advantages of national trade statistics over customs statistics are obvious. Third, according to customs statistics, the trade surplus between China and the United States has expanded from US$ 2,654.38 billion of 654.38+0.98 to US$ 80.4 billion of 2004, thus making China's external imbalance, especially its trade imbalance with the United States, the focus of widespread concern. However, the estimation results show that the national trade between China and the United States is basically balanced, and the Sino-US trade surplus that really belongs to China people does not exist. In addition, the cross-border exports of China nationals to the United States and the sales of China nationals to American enterprises in China are basically the same, while the cross-border imports of China nationals from the United States are lower than those of China nationals from American enterprises in China. This shows that the transactions between China nationals and American enterprises in China are generally higher than those between China nationals and the United States. Fourthly, China's processing trade products exported to the United States use a large number of raw materials and parts imported from other parts of the world. This situation shifted the trade surplus of other countries in the world to China, thus exaggerating the actual trade surplus between China and the United States. The "rules of origin" of the United States also failed to identify how much of China's exports to the United States were created by China and how much was created by other countries. . Judging from the data sources, it is estimated that the national trade between China and the United States is based on the existing customs statistics. Therefore, the influence of processing trade on the authenticity of Sino-US trade in customs statistics will inevitably affect our estimation of Sino-US trade. Fortunately, the impact of processing trade on the trade balance between China and the United States is far less than that of customs statistics, because China's processing trade with the United States is mainly completed by foreign-funded enterprises. Customs statistics show that foreign-funded enterprises account for about 80% of China's processing trade exports to the United States and 90% of China's processing trade imports from the United States. The trade between foreign-funded enterprises and the United States is not included in the national trade statistics of China and the United States. The difference between national trade statistics and customs statistics reflects more information about international trade and can be used as a good supplement to customs statistics. The difference between ethnic trade in China and cross-border trade by customs statistics is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is the cross-border trade of foreign-funded enterprises, and the other is the trading (purchase and sale) of foreign-funded enterprises in China. The former is included in cross-border trade but not in ethnic trade, while the latter is included in ethnic trade but not in cross-border trade. The investigation of the above two sources of differences shows that foreign-funded enterprises have become the main driving force of China's foreign trade, both in customs statistics and national trade statistics. What does China's huge national trade deficit and huge customs surplus mean? The following are our preliminary thoughts on some related issues. Does China lose much in international trade? To understand this problem, we need to pay attention to two points: first, although the net trade income corresponding to the trade balance is one of the trade benefits, the welfare enhancement that a country obtains from international trade mainly comes from the redistribution of resources, economies of scale, efficiency improvement and technological progress brought about by international trade. As Adam Smith pointed out in The Wealth of Nations, the trade balance may be the least important among the trade benefits. Therefore, although there is a big deficit in China's ethnic trade, the big loss of national income predicted by it may not be comparable to the income increase or welfare improvement obtained by China from the whole foreign trade. Secondly, the national trade we estimate refers to the national trade in goods, excluding the trade in services. In fact, foreign-funded enterprises have also imported (purchased) a large number of services from China nationals in their local production and sales activities in China, including labor services, capital services and government services. Foreign-funded enterprises need to provide wages, interest or dividends, and pay taxes and fees to workers, capital owners and the government in China respectively. Therefore, the trade balance between China's national services and goods may be much smaller than that of pure national goods, and the corresponding national income loss may also be much smaller. Is China's foreign trade consuming foreign exchange reserves instead of increasing them? In fact, there is no corresponding relationship between national trade and foreign exchange reserves like cross-border trade. This is because foreign exchange management is based on national boundaries. Only cross-border ethnic trade involves foreign exchange transactions and changes in foreign exchange reserves. Generally, China's national trade must be settled in RMB, which does not directly correspond to the flow of foreign exchange. However, there are some indirect links between China's national trade and foreign exchange reserves. For example, China's national trade deficit means that the sales of foreign-funded enterprises in China are greater than the purchases, which means that the net income of foreign-funded enterprises in China is greater than zero, which becomes the profit source of foreign-funded enterprises, increases the income outflow of foreign-funded enterprises under China's current account, and leads to the reduction of foreign exchange reserves. Of course, if foreign-funded enterprises reinvest this income in China, it will not affect the changes in foreign exchange reserves. Does the observed external imbalance not exist? The current external imbalance in China and even the global economic imbalance mainly refers to the imbalance of international payments. The imbalance of international payments and the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in China are both real. The difference between cross-border trade balance and national trade balance shows that foreign-funded enterprises, not local enterprises in China, are the main causes of China's international balance of payments imbalance. Foreign-funded enterprises not only directly generated a large trade surplus in China, but also turned the goods originally imported from China into production and sales in China, and turned the goods originally exported from other countries into processing and re-export in China, thus further widening China's foreign trade imbalance. The trade imbalance caused by foreign-funded enterprises is greater than that of China as a whole, which shows that local enterprises in China are the balance force of China's foreign payments. In addition, the inflow of foreign capital itself has also led to the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, further aggravating China's international balance of payments imbalance. How to treat the role of foreign capital in China's foreign trade? A country's opening to the outside world is not only reflected in cross-border transactions, but also in domestic transactions. The results of ethnic trade estimation show that the import and export of ethnic trade in China is higher than the customs statistics, and the calculated trade dependence and openness are obviously higher than the data based on customs statistics. The national trade statistics, including the purchase and sale behavior of foreign-funded enterprises in China, clearly reflect China's dependence on foreign trade and the degree of opening to the outside world more objectively than the customs' cross-border trade statistics. Of course, not all foreign-funded enterprises have a negative impact in China. Foreign-funded enterprises have also injected impetus into China's economic development, promoted China's market-oriented reform, absorbed a lot of labor, introduced new technologies and management methods, and so on. How to comprehensively evaluate the role of foreign capital in China's economy, how to comprehensively evaluate the long-term impact of foreign capital on China's balance of payments and its impact on China's future trade pattern need further consideration and research. This is also the significance of our study of China's ethnic trade.