In the future, China's labor productivity will continue to increase rapidly, the balance of payments will maintain a surplus pattern, the monetary policy will be stable and tight, and the total amount of foreign exchange reserves will be high. The difference and spread of investment income between China and foreign countries will inevitably lead to the appreciation of RMB, but it will not appreciate greatly, and it will be basically stable in the medium and long term, fluctuating in both directions, and it is more likely to appreciate slightly.

According to the data released by the Bank for International Settlements recently, the real effective exchange rate index of RMB in June was10.58%, slightly higher than that in June, which was 5438+0.58%. 165438+1In the month of October, the central parity of RMB fluctuated higher, opening at 6.30 17 and closing at 6.2892.

Due to the continuous rise of the US dollar index and the unsatisfactory domestic economic data at the end of last year, the RMB exchange rate started the new year weakly. On the first trading day of 20 15, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6. 1248, down 58 basis points from the previous trading day, and the spot exchange rate was the biggest one-day drop in half a month.