1, a large surplus means more exports and less imports. If you change 100 dollars into 80 dollars, you will get 20 dollars more. The impact on foreign exchange is only reflected in the annual increase of the country's foreign exchange reserves. The extra $20 was exchanged by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for RMB for export enterprises (we are a foreign exchange control country), so although the national foreign exchange reserves increased by $20, the RMB in the circulation market decreased by $20. (This is related to the third question. )

2. There are many factors influencing currency appreciation and depreciation. But the surplus is not a direct factor, it will only have an indirect impact, that is, it will affect the appreciation factor in turn for many times, and there is no inevitable causal relationship. Our average haircut is 65,438+00 RMB, and going to America is 65,438+00 USD. So the United States has to say that we have obviously depressed the exchange rate.

The increase of export cost is also inaccurate and can only be understood from the relationship between export and exchange rate.

For example, currency appreciation, if it is export:

Suppose the exchange rate is 1:7, and you receive an export order of $65,438+0,000, and the cost is 60,000 RMB. You can get 1 0,000 RMB from this order.

Now the exchange rate has become 1:6. At this time, you will receive another order of 1000 USD, and the cost is still 60,000 RMB, but you have made nothing.

As mentioned above, surplus is not a factor affecting appreciation, but appreciation is a factor affecting exports.

Speaking of deficit, deficit is the opposite, that is, more imports and less exports. 100 You pay $80, you lose $20, and the country's foreign exchange reserves decrease. The state will print 20 more RMB, the circulation market will print 20 more RMB, and the deficit will continue to increase. At the same time, the circulation market will also increase the money supply, with more money, devaluation and inflation.

However, our current inflation is not caused by deficit. 1 was caused by printing more banknotes in 2008 to cope with the financial crisis, expand domestic demand, increase investment. 2. The depreciation of the dollar itself has led to worldwide inflation (non-expert opinion, my own understanding).