Economic globalization is the general trend of world development today. Although there will be twists and turns in the process and some people will oppose it, its momentum is unstoppable.
Economic globalization refers to the unprecedented acceleration of the flow of goods, capital, services, technology, information and services (talents) around the world, forming a unified world market. You have me, I have you, and no one can live without anyone. After entering the new century, the process of globalization is accelerating, and countries are becoming more and more open, interdependent and free of markets.
The reason why the momentum of economic globalization is unstoppable and the process will not be interrupted is because the two wheels that promote economic globalization have been turning forward, and these two forces are unstoppable. This is the power of marketization and networking, which is the so-called market revolution and technological revolution.
After the end of the cold war, the scale and speed of world marketization have greatly improved. Eastern European countries in the former Soviet Union embarked on the road of marketization; Since the reform and opening up in China, the market economy has made great progress; Developed capitalist countries have also greatly relaxed their control over the market. The openness of the whole world and the freedom of the market are unprecedented.
The rapid development of information industry has broken through the limitation of geographical time and space. Internet shortens the distance between countries in the world, accelerates the flow of goods, capital, technology and information, and reduces costs at an unprecedented speed. For example, at 200 1, the long-distance telephone charge from new york to London is expected to drop to 3 cents every three minutes 1 USD. Networking has greatly promoted the process of economic globalization.
The expansion of multinational corporations is unstoppable and has become the main carrier of economic globalization. Where the market conditions are right, where the cost is low and the potential is great, they will push forward. Research shows that there are 64,000 multinational companies in the world, which take advantage of capital, technology, brand and sales network. They control global13 production, 2/3 international trade, 70% technology patents and 90% international direct investment. These behemoths are an important driving force of economic globalization.
The establishment of WTO and the formation of unified international economic rules have gradually strengthened the binding force on nation-states and greatly promoted the process of global trade and investment liberalization.
However, due to the negative effects of economic globalization, the widening gap between North and South, unreasonable international economic and trade rules (mainly formulated by developed countries), wealth is increasingly concentrated in a few rich countries, and underdeveloped countries are in danger of being marginalized. The global integration of industrial structure has made some people in developed countries unemployed; The pace of industrialization makes environmental problems more and more prominent. Therefore, since the 1990s, there has been an anti-globalization wave in the world.
The rise of the anti-globalization wave reminds the world that the process of globalization should be adjusted and reflected, and globalization should be endowed with "humanity and humanity" (EU language) to make it a sustainable economic globalization, which requires the establishment of a fair and just international economic order.
Second, the world economy has formed three main bodies and three major markets.
Together with economic globalization, regional economic cooperation (that is, regional economic collectivization) has become another important trend of world economic development.
At present, there are more than 140 economic cooperation organizations in the world, but there are three main bodies that play a decisive role in the world economy and occupy the largest market share: the European Union, the North American Free Trade Area and the East Asian Free Trade Area being planned and established. The rise and fall of the world economy is closely related to these three regional economic plates.
After five expansions, the EU has become the most integrated regional organization. These 25 countries have a population of 450 million, and their GDP exceeds 10 trillion US dollars, accounting for 30% of the total world GDP. The European Union established the euro zone and unified the currency, which is the only force that can compete with the United States in the economic field at present.
The North American Free Trade Area, including the United States, Canada and Mexico, was formally established in 1994, with a population of nearly 400 million and a GDP of1/trillion dollars. It is the largest free trade zone in the world. It hopes to expand to South America, which the United States considers "a more important market than the European Union". If Latin America enters, it will form a big market of 34 countries, 800 million people and half the world. South America's accession to NAFTA has a tortuous process, but it is only a matter of time.
A bilateral East Asian Free Trade Area network is taking shape. At the ASEAN Summit held in Singapore on June 5438+065438+1October 2000 and the informal summit of "10+3" (ASEAN 10+ China, Japan and South Korea), the leaders reached a consensus and put it into practice. China and ASEAN decided to establish a free trade area in 20 10, and the Japanese-ASEAN free trade area will be finally completed in 20 12. On this basis, the East Asia Free Trade Area composed of "10+3" is expected to be completed around 20 15, and gradually move towards the more grand goal of establishing "East Asia economy * * *". To achieve this goal, the cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea, which accounts for more than 90% of GDP in East Asia, is crucial. Once the East Asia Free Trade Area is completed, it will become the most potential market in the world with a population of 1/3 and a GDP of $7 trillion, and its scale can form a tripartite confrontation with the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area.
The three major economic sectors in the world intersect, cooperate and compete with each other. China's major markets and major trading partners are within this range. The United States, Europe and Japan account for nearly half of China's total foreign trade import and export. Therefore, it is particularly important to pay close attention to the trends of the three major global markets. As some experts have said, a series of changes in the driving force, geographical distribution, organizational form and influence of regional economic cooperation will play a decisive role in the direction and pattern of world economic development and pose new opportunities and challenges to all countries in the world.
Three, the four major environments that affect the development of the world economy
Economic development is restricted by the environment. There are four major environments that have an important impact on world economic development, namely, political environment, market environment, resource environment and ecological environment.
1. The political environment has a great influence on the economy. Judging from the political environment of the whole world, it is conducive to peaceful development. After the end of the Cold War, relations among major powers entered a stage of development dominated by consultation, coordination and cooperation, and a period of relative stability emerged. However, local wars, international terrorist activities, ethnic and religious conflicts and social unrest have all hindered the development of the world economy and increased uncertainty.
2. Market environment, including climate, human environment, labor quality, market consumption potential, labor price, transportation and communication conditions, corporate reputation, government's economic, trade and investment policies and openness, legal situation, work efficiency, etc. In the list of global emerging markets listed by the United States, China, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, India, South Africa and Poland have certain advantages in the market environment. Investors always flock to places with high market openness, high return on investment and good business conditions.
3. Resources and environment are related to whether production can be guaranteed, whether operating costs can be reduced, whether economic development can last for a long time, and are the material basis. With the rapid economic development today, people pay more and more attention to the protection, improvement and development of natural resources such as energy, land, minerals, water and grain. Both Japan and Singapore, which are poor in natural resources, and the United States and Russia, which are rich in resources, have to take resource issues as a prerequisite when developing their economies and making plans. The safety of three strategic resources, oil, grain and water, has been paid more and more attention by governments all over the world.
4. Ecological environment is the natural environment for human survival. Air pollution and water pollution caused by industrial society have affected the sustainable development of human society. At present, 1 1 100 million people in the world do not have access to clean water. The appearance of acid rain, sandstorm, persistent high temperature and the prevalence of SARS, avian flu and mad cow disease have sounded the alarm for mankind. While developing their economies, governments all over the world are investing more and more money to harness and improve the ecological environment. To achieve rapid, healthy, coordinated and sustainable economic development, we must create four good environments.
Fourth, scientific and technological progress is the accelerator of world economic growth.
Since 1990s, the world science and technology have advanced by leaps and bounds, and a series of major breakthroughs have been made in high-tech supported by electronic information, biotechnology and new materials, which have changed the face of the world and promoted the process of economic globalization. In today's world, developing modern science and technology and enhancing comprehensive national strength have become a common concern of all countries in the world. Japan revisited the slogan of building a country through science and technology, and Europe put forward the goal of speeding up catching up with the United States. Developed countries have entered the stage of developing high technology and creating new industries of science and technology, and they are all seizing the commanding heights of science and technology.
If the birth of advanced tools is an extension of human hands, then the emergence of electronic computers is an extension of human brain. At present, the continuous development of information technology revolution is in the ascendant, and its great role, Americans compare it with the British industrial revolution 300 years ago. It is estimated that the peak of information technology and information industry development will last until around 2020, which is a powerful accelerator to promote industrial structure adjustment, sustained economic growth and accelerated globalization. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the 20th century, the world's science and technology is developing rapidly in four major fields and four commanding heights, and fierce competition is being launched. This is life science and biotechnology, information technology, new material technology and space technology.
American scientists believe that the technological changes in the next 10 years will exceed the sum of the last century. Science and technology, especially high technology, is the accelerator of economic development, the key means of strengthening national strength, the foundation of enriching the country and strengthening the people, and the most important weapon of comprehensive national strength competition in the contemporary world. Experts believe that in the 2 1 century, the rise and fall and economic growth of a country will largely depend on its high-tech development level.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) The unique position and great risk of finance in the world economy.
In the process of economic globalization, the world financial market is developing in the direction of global integration, and the role of financial capital in the world economy is increasingly prominent.
Since the 1990s, the flow of capital in the world has been accelerated at an unprecedented speed and on a huge scale. Due to the relaxation of foreign exchange control, the opening of domestic capital market and the expansion of foreign economic and trade cooperation, good conditions have been created for the rapid entry and exit and free flow of financial capital. At present, the global hot money is as high as seven or eight trillion dollars, and the daily trading volume of the global foreign exchange market reaches10.5 trillion to 2 trillion dollars, of which more than 90% of the transactions are short-term capital, engaged in various speculations. The opening and globalization of financial markets have brought great convenience to countries' investment, financing and economic development. However, the uncontrolled development of global financial markets has also brought great instability.
The problem brought by financial globalization is that financial crises often have a chain reaction, forming a domino effect, that is, the internationalization of financial crises. The Mexican financial crisis quickly spread to other Latin American countries; The financial turmoil in Thailand soon spread to Southeast Asian countries and most Asian countries and regions, and spread to the whole world. The frequent occurrence of financial crises reminds all countries in the world that when opening up financial markets, they should pay attention to gradually improving their ability to resist financial storms and strengthen their management systems according to their own specific conditions to prevent financial crises.
6. The widening gap between the rich and the poor between the North and the South affects the stable development of the world economy.
The biggest negative effect brought by globalization is the further widening of the gap between the North and the South, which will have a huge adverse impact on the stability and future development of the world economy.
Due to historical reasons, the international economic order is unfair, the world development is unbalanced, and ethnic and religious issues have caused social unrest. The vast number of developing countries, especially 50 underdeveloped countries, are in a state of poverty and backwardness, and some are marginalized.
According to statistics, the population of the United States, Canada, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Japan accounts for 1 1% of the world population, but their GDP accounts for 65% of the world total. In other parts of the world, the population accounts for 89% of the world, but the GDP is only 35% of the world. In more than 50 countries in Africa, GDP accounts for 1% of the world total, which is only equivalent to the assets of General Electric Company of the United States.
Statistics also show that the income gap between the richest 20% and the poorest 20% in the world is 30∶ 1 in 1960, 60∶ 1 in 1990 and 74 ∶/kl in 1999. Congo (DRC), the country with the lowest annual per capita income in the world, has only $90, while Switzerland with the highest per capita income has reached $37,930.
Foreign direct investment is also mainly concentrated in developed countries. In 2000, the world net investment reached10.5 trillion dollars, of which 82% was allocated to developed countries, while Africa only allocated 1% of foreign direct investment. The widening gap between the rich and the poor in the world economic development has brought social instability and turmoil, as well as dissatisfaction and resentment against rich countries.
In short, the current world economic situation is that the west is strong and the east is weak, the north is rich and the south is poor, and the north attacks the south. All countries in the world, especially developing countries, are calling for North-South dialogue, changing the irrational economic order, reducing debts and increasing assistance to underdeveloped countries.
Seven, China has become the driving force of the world economic express train.
Over the past 20 years, China has seized the opportunity of economic globalization and accelerated its reform and opening up, becoming one of the countries that have benefited the most from globalization. The peaceful rise of China is the most influential event in the 20th century. China's total foreign trade, actual utilization of foreign capital and national foreign exchange reserves are among the highest in the world. According to the statistics of the World Bank, China's GDP in 2002 was US$ 65,438+US$ 0.2 trillion, ranking sixth in the world. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics in September, the total GDP of China reached11689.8 billion yuan in 2003.
With the average growth rate of the world economy less than 3% in recent five years, the economic growth rate of China has been rising at a rate higher than 8%. China's economy has become the locomotive to promote economic growth in Asia.
Today, more than 400 Fortune 500 companies have invested in China, and more and more multinational companies have set up production bases, procurement centers, R&D centers and regional headquarters in China. According to the information of the Foreign Investment Department of the Ministry of Commerce in August, the number of R&D centers set up by multinational companies in China has increased rapidly in recent years, and the total number has exceeded 600. These R&D centers have invested about $4 billion in R&D, which will play a positive role in expanding China's foreign economic and technological cooperation, promoting the development of high-tech industries and promoting multinational companies' investment in China. This shows that multinational companies regard the China market as an important part of the global market. At the same time, there are thousands of multinational companies in China. As pointed out by international public opinion, the weight of China's economy in the world economy has been further enhanced, and it has become a driving force for world economic growth.
8. The current world economic situation is generally improving.
After more than two years of low-speed growth, the world economy has gradually stepped out of the trough and the situation is improving.
In the early years of the new century, due to the Internet and stock market bubbles formed in the 1990s in the United States, the bubble economy collapsed, which triggered the simultaneous deceleration of the three major economic locomotives in the world, namely, the United States, Europe and Japan, and the world economy experienced a low growth rate of 200 1 and 2002. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, in 2000, the world economic growth rate was 4.8%, which dropped to 2.4% in 200 1 year and to 3.0% in 2002. World trade and foreign investment have experienced a double decline. The momentum of cross-border mergers and acquisitions has also weakened significantly.
After nearly three years of adjustment, a series of measures such as interest rate reduction, tax reduction and structural adjustment were taken. By the second half of 2003, the economies of developed countries such as the United States showed signs of recovery. Japan's economy also woke up from 10 years of deep sleep and slowly recovered. Asia's strong economic growth, as high as 7%, is the economic highlight. Therefore, people call the world economy at the end of 2003 "the train to spring".
There are still many uncertainties in world economic growth. It will take some time for the sequela (structural problems) of the bubble economy to be completely eliminated. The unemployment rate in developed countries remains high, the depreciation of the US dollar is weak, the aftermath of the Iraq war makes it more difficult to fight terrorism, the world situation is unstable, and oil prices remain high, all of which have variables and adverse effects on the future growth of the world economy.
According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth rate reached 3.2% in 2003. At the same time, it is predicted that the global economic growth rate will reach 4.6% in 2004, and it is said that it will be raised to 4.9% soon. Whether this optimistic estimate can be realized remains to be confirmed, but what is certain is that the overall development prospects of the world economy are promising.