Financial crisis refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions.
1. The financial crisis originated in America. Causes of financial crisis: The credit expansion caused by fictitious economy and the bursting of economic bubble are the main causes of financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. Sub-prime bonds are actually only $600 billion, which caused such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect refers to the situation that investors have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information in the market. Theoretically speaking, herding behavior will aggravate market fluctuation and become the key to the success of leaders' behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell baked wheat cakes, each selling 20 cakes a day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40), and the output value of one yuan per day is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought 100(A bought it from B and B 100 bought it from A 100).
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame seed cakes 1 were sold in 5 yuan, but when they saw that there was only 2 yuan in the market, they quickly bought them. -The bubble economy came into being.
Baked sesame seeds can't be cooked at once, so buy forward cakes. A, Otsuichi increased the number of baked wheat cakes (up to 100 per day), on the other hand, it sold forward baked wheat cakes, and at the same time began to issue baked wheat cakes bonds. Buyers use cash and mortgages to buy. -Financing, financial intervention.
Some people want to buy it, and they have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds to buy insurance from insurance institutions-subprime bonds have planted seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the biscuits I bought. If it is stored in one place and moldy, I will sell it soon, even if the price is lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Sesame cake bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
3. In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
4. deeper level
(1) Long-term accumulation of early consumption. In the United States, early consumption has been popular for a long time, encouraging people to buy houses, cars and high-end consumer goods. In order to pursue high profits, banks issue credit cards to residents to encourage consumption in advance. Enjoy today with tomorrow's money "Let your dreams come early and make them come true." Being able to earn and spend is the pride of the times. " To put it bluntly, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity for several years. However, this kind of advanced purchasing power in the future, after all, is "unable to make ends meet", with bubbles, temporary prosperity and illusory colors. Once the economy is depressed, a large number of unemployed people will not pay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay will drop sharply. American subprime debts will be highlighted in front of the world, banks will have piles of bad debts, and some investment banks will face bankruptcy.
(2) American banks bear high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be a "favored son of heaven." High-level leaders are well paid, with millions of annual salaries everywhere and hundreds of thousands of middle-level white-collar workers. For a long time, the banking industry has covered up the contradiction because of the huge amount of loans and rich profits. Although the salary is high every year, it can get by. Once the debtor is unable to pay his debts, a batch of bad debts will appear, forming a triangular debt. At first, the bank was in trouble, and then it suffered huge losses. So a lot of layoffs. If we seriously reflect, high salary is an excessive enjoyment of economic achievements and contains exploitation factors. Or it is a foolish act of "fishing with exhausted resources" and "killing the goose to get the egg".
(3) The United States currently lacks emerging industries. Over the years, emerging industries in the United States have often led the world trend. Such as expressway, automobile industry, aviation industry and electronic communication industry. For example, the software and hardware of computers and mobile phones are far ahead. When many countries were still in infancy, the United States had formed an industry on a large scale. However, in the past ten years, these leading industries in the United States have been hovering, while many countries in the world are catching up quickly. The electronic industries such as computers and mobile phones have developed rapidly, and the advantages of the United States have weakened relatively, or gradually lost their advantages.
Rome was not built in a day. The financial crisis in the United States is a long-term accumulation, which inspires people to learn from it. We should proceed from our own reality and do a good job in China. This is also a good way to resolve the impact of the US financial crisis on China.
Second, the impact of the US financial crisis on China:
1. The direct impact is relatively limited: China's official reserves and dollar assets invested by commercial banks once exposed risks in this crisis, but overall, the investment losses are limited and will not have a great impact on China's financial system.
2. Specific impact:
(1) The decrease in US consumption affects China's exports: the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the acquisition of Merrill Lynch are in the same strain as the subprime mortgage crisis that began last year. In the eyes of many experts, this incident is just a wave in the whole crisis process and should not be treated in isolation. Its impact on China's economy is actually a continuation of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's macro-economy. Zhang Bin, deputy director of the World Finance Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, China Academy of Social Sciences: We can understand the impact of this crisis on China from two aspects: export and import. Export: It can be predicted that the external environment of China's macro-economy will be more severe due to the financial turmoil sweeping Wall Street. According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of this year. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. Zhang Bin said that the decline in external demand means that foreign consumers' demand for high value-added products and low value-added products will decrease at the same time. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises. Import: Under the impact of the financial crisis, the American economy may still decline in the second half of the year, which will lead to the continued decline of its national consumption power and desire, while investment expenditure will increase. "This is not good news for China's foreign trade exports." If the consumer demand of American citizens decreases and the manufacturing industry gradually recovers due to the increase in investment, the goods imported from China will inevitably decrease.
(2) Increase the cost of domestic imports: In terms of imports, the impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all commodities in the international market are priced in dollars, and the strength of the dollar determines the price trend of commodities. From the observable data, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other commodities have shown a downward trend due to the recent reversal of the US dollar, which is good news for China, which needs a large number of resource products. However, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the unexpected acquisition of Merrill Lynch, the "Fannie and Freddie" announced by the US government a week ago, and the repeated turmoil in the US financial market have seriously affected the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and the confidence of holders. Sun, deputy dean of School of Economics, Fudan University and professor of finance: Although the US economic situation performed better than expected in the second quarter, showing sufficient resilience, it was due to the strong export brought by the weak US dollar. Therefore, under the circumstances of the financial turmoil and weak domestic demand, the US government will continue to promote exports under the "weak dollar" and reserve room for the Fed to further cut interest rates. Zhang Bin: Although the US economy is strong in the medium and long term and the exchange rate of the US dollar is high, the policy of weakening the US dollar in the short term seems to have been recognized by the market. In this way, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other resource products will be pushed up again, and the cost of importing commodities denominated in US dollars in China will also increase greatly.
(3) Combating the confidence of the domestic financial market: Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics: The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is a continuation of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which has brought considerable losses and impacts to financial institutions. The five major investment banks on Wall Street have strong investment and research teams, with assets exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars and extremely rich information resources. Such large investment banks have also closed down, indicating the seriousness of this crisis. "Different financial institutions have suffered different degrees of losses, the only difference is the amount of losses, such as Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the US government, and Bear Stearns, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase in March. However, it is better to consider the impact on financial market confidence than to estimate the direct losses of investors. As far as China is concerned, the impact is twofold. The first level is market confidence. The bankruptcy of institutions with big problems in the United States has cast a shadow on investors' psychology in China. What is certain is that the second day after the news of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy came, it coincided with the opening of the A-share market during the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the banking sector in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted across the board. Its performance can only be described as "terrible", in which ICBC fell by 9.95%, China Construction Bank by 9.94% and China Bank by 9. 17%. Under the vertical blow of all kinds of bad news, the trading volume of bank stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell by more than 9.0% throughout the day, with as many as 8 bank stocks falling. According to the latest information disclosed yesterday, as of yesterday, China Merchants Bank, which had a daily limit of 16, had * * * 70 million US dollars of bond exposure issued by Lehman Brothers, including 60 million US dollars of senior bonds and100000 US dollars of subordinated bonds, and the company has not made provision for impairment of the above bonds.
(4) Direct losses to domestic financial institutions: The direct impact of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on domestic financial institutions includes two aspects: on the one hand, China's financial institutions and investors hold more subordinated bonds, resulting in actual losses; On the other hand, the financial crisis leads to the recession in the United States, which will be transmitted to China. RobertDowling, the former executive editor of Businessweek's North America edition and a senior visiting scholar at Tsinghua University School of Journalism and Communication, is worried about China's banking industry, which holds a large number of stocks and funds of American financial institutions. According to the bankruptcy documents, the top 30 unsecured creditors of Lehman Brothers are mainly Asian financial institutions, including Japanese Blue Bank, Central Mitsui Trust, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance, Mizuho Industrial Bank, Trust Central Treasury, and Bank of China, a domestic financial institution involved again. It is reported that Lehman owed $462 million to Japanese Blue Sky Bank, $382 million to Mizuho Industrial Bank, and $275 million to Citigroup's Hong Kong subsidiary, while Bank of China new york Branch also took the lead in lending $50 million to Lehman.
"The Wall Street financial turmoil will also slow down China's economic growth to a great extent. After the Olympic Games, China's economic growth has slowed down, "Dowling said. "The financial turmoil in the United States will only make this problem more serious. The financial turmoil caused the US stock index to plummet, while the China administration bought a lot of Wall Street stocks, and banks and fund companies in China also bought a lot of American funds. In addition, the loan difficulties caused by the financial crisis will directly affect China's trade exports. " "In fact, China's current macroeconomic decline is partly due to domestic economic factors, and some are indeed from the United States and from the outside." Guo Tianyong said, "We talk about imported inflation. In fact, the economic recession is also imported in a sense. Because the United States is the largest economy in the world, the demand for goods and investment in various countries will be very large. Therefore, once there is a problem in the US economy, it may lead to economic decline or recession in the world or many major countries. "
3. The lessons are profound and should be taken as a warning: China can learn the following lessons from the current crisis in the United States:
(1). Loose monetary policy is likely to trigger asset price bubbles and bring potential risks to future financial system crises.
(2) Facing the "deep water area" of the international market, China's "going out" policy should be more cautious, and foreign investment needs strict risk assessment and diversified investment strategies.
The financial crisis has spread all over the world. For China, the country's foreign exchange reserves are partially lost, making it difficult to export. Economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income declines, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to some extent. China's RMB is strictly managed under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. At present, more than 70 banks in the United States tend to close down. China's financial system is operating well and its economy has maintained a certain growth. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China will be relieved in about 1 year.