Hu zeguo
First, the reasons for the financial turmoil in the United States
Since June 5438+ 10, 2007, the American financial turmoil triggered by the American real estate subprime mortgage crisis has led to a worldwide financial crisis, which is crucial to the overall economic growth of the world and may even affect the real economic crisis of the world. It will be a worldwide disaster, and it can also be said that it is a black world.
This all-round world economic crisis once again proves the bankruptcy of neo-liberal economy and fictitious economy advocated by the United States-led west, and also deeply exposes the economic aggression of western capitalist monopoly capital on the people of the world, and exposes the irreconcilable contradiction between socialization of production and private ownership of means of production under the capitalist system, which is essentially a denial of the capitalist economic system.
On the surface, this crisis was triggered by the real estate subprime mortgage crisis. Personally, I think the financial crisis in the United States was triggered by two aspects. On the one hand, American economic strength is overdrawn; On the other hand, it is triggered by the virtual economy.
Why did the overdraft of American economic strength trigger the financial crisis?
American consumption is mainly in two aspects; First, the US government's expenditure, the most important thing is the huge US military expenditure. The United States has established a number of huge military systems around the world, and the military budget in 2008 alone was as high as 2.9 trillion US dollars. The second is national consumption. In the United States, the important consumption of national consumption is real estate and medical care. In capitalist countries, we should always flaunt "democracy and freedom". In order to show off the superiority of the capitalist system, we should ensure the high wages of enterprise workers and the high welfare of the people of the country. However, the current economic growth strength of the United States is far from meeting its high military expenditure and the high consumption of American citizens. What should be done when a country's economic strength can't meet its high consumption? Economic overdraft, overdraft limit is generally determined according to the ideal expected economic benefits of the country, enterprises and citizens. When the expected income of any overdraft unit cannot be realized, banks will generate bad debts and dormant account. If there are many such dormant account, they can only declare bankruptcy. In this way, the United States triggered the subprime mortgage crisis of banks, leading to the financial crisis. The financial crisis is also a credit crisis in essence, which is simply a crisis of American economic strength.
Why is this financial crisis caused by virtual economy?
As we know, in 2006, the United States also shouted that the US dollar was oversold and the US dollar depreciated, and strongly urged the RMB to appreciate. You think the dollar is the world's hegemonic currency, and it is spread all over the world. How much wealth does America have? If you pooled the dollars in the hands of people all over the world to buy American goods, what would you buy? I think maybe American land will be bought, and it can't pay the purchasing power of the people of the world. It can be seen that the dollar is not less, but more. But why is there a banking financial crisis? To put it bluntly, the Bank of America is empty and has no money. How did so much money get in? The answer is that only one dollar has become "hot money", squeezing the blood and sweat of people all over the world.
How is "hot money" formed? How to plunder the wealth of the people of the world? "Hot money" is also called hot money. It refers to short-term monetary funds flowing between virtual financial markets in pursuit of high profits. It has the characteristics of strong speculation, fast liquidity and obvious tendency. If there is a price difference, then hot money will flow around the world and earn short-term capital gains such as exchange rate difference.
International fund. Hot money can also include domestic private equity funds, so it is bigger than the general concept of hot money.
Virtual economic system provides a platform for the formation and operation of "hot money". The virtual economy is based on stocks, and a large number of derivatives have been derived from the virtual economy, including futures and funds. "Hot money" is essentially speculative business and short-term business, not long-term investment. In the economic market, the biggest role is speculation.
"Hot money" means that the capital empire organizes a certain scale of capital in an organized and purposeful way, enters the world economy, sweeps, speculates and manipulates the specific real economy or virtual economy, especially manipulates the stock market, in order to obtain a large number of people in the world. "Hot money" is snowballing, especially in some areas. A large number of "hot money" in and out of banks can easily lead to financial chaos, bring great wrong information to financial institutions, make mistakes in financial decision-making, and even misjudge, leading to the final paralysis of financial institutions. A simple example is that a large amount of "hot money" is deposited in banks for a short period of time. Banks mistakenly believe that there are too many deposits and try their best to manage loans. Once "hot money" leaves the bank and engages in speculative business, the bank will have to close down, because the bank will not be able to come up with so much money for a while, and the financial crisis will break out. This shows that hot money is also one of the bank killers. In particular, "hot money" as a short-term capital, its ability and level of collecting money is equivalent to the autumn wind sweeping away leaves, and its destructive power to the industry is equivalent to an earthquake. Once the "hot money" swept away the wealth in the hands of ordinary people, what do you think is the ability to repay the bank mortgage loan?
Second, the impact of the US financial turmoil on China and the world.
The world financial crisis triggered by the American financial crisis is quietly approaching every corner of the world, and we must remain vigilant. The outbreak of the American financial crisis will not have a strong public influence in the United States at present. The simple fact is that the bank has closed down and the people are happy. People don't need to repay bank loans, because in the United States, in addition to consuming the wealth they originally created, they continue to overdraw in banks for a long time. Now that this bank is bankrupt, they go to that bank to overdraw until this bank is bankrupt. Although the American financial crisis has little impact on the American people, it has contributed to the world economic crisis.
The existence of hot money can play a positive role in regulating the surplus and deficiency of international capital and activating financial markets. However, its negative effects far exceed its positive effects: first, hot money will shake the country's exchange rate due to speculative operations, causing ups and downs in the foreign exchange market and eventually distorting the exchange rate level; Second, a large number of hot money entering and leaving the host country will cause a large increase or decrease in foreign exchange reserves and promote the ups and downs of the stock market; Third, the rapid flow of hot money will often have a negative impact on the monetary control policies of various countries. For example, if a country raises interest rates to curb inflation, international hot money will flood in, forcing the country to passively increase the amount of money and aggravate inflation. This will obviously increase the difficulty for monetary authorities to stabilize the economy and affect the expected effect of national macro-control. Hot money will not only cause economic turmoil and financial crisis, but also spread the crisis to other countries through speculative operations in financial markets.
Hot money is different from other financial capital. Bank financial capital is a bank credit operation based on lending and aiming at operating monetary capital. The purpose of hot money is not to manage money and credit, but to speculate, manipulate the free economic market, disrupt the normal operation order of the market, and obtain speculative profits, which has dealt a great blow and damage to the free economic market and seriously damaged the normal financial order, and is one of the fuses of the financial crisis.
Dollar hegemony is the root of the global economic crisis triggered by the US financial crisis. Because the financial crisis in the United States mainly spreads to the whole world by means of financial chain and industrial chain, especially the market closely connected with virtual economy will become more prominent. Therefore, the closer it is to the American financial and real industries, the greater the impact and influence of the American economic crisis on it. For example, China's stock market and export commodity production enterprises are typical examples.
Third, China's response to the economic crisis
(1) In view of the full-scale financial crisis in the United States, judging from its two fundamental reasons, it is impossible for our stock market and export industry chain to stay out of it, but how to deal with it is a major event that should be carefully considered. In particular, some domestic clamors for saving the market say that scientific and objective analysis and evaluation are needed.
In the face of the global economic crisis triggered by the United States, I personally think it is not suitable to save the market. It is possible to save the market, and there must be conditions. Facing the world crisis, the most fundamental consideration should be the real economy, the preservation of resources and commercial entities. The main reason is that the American economic crisis is caused by economic consumption overdraft and world hot money. As far as the current economic situation is concerned, rescuing the market is a drop in the bucket, because the economic strength of the United States itself is already facing bankruptcy. Who has so much energy to fill the American consumption trap? To save the market lightly is to enter a bottomless pit, that is, to hand over one's wealth to American imperialism endlessly.
The United States hopes that China's rescue of the market can also be fully achieved. We can put 1.85 trillion dollars in our hands into the US market, which must be exchanged for the real economy to supplement the strength of our country's real economy.
One is to use China's foreign exchange to prepare for the acquisition of China enterprises and enterprise shares purchased by American capitalists in China, including the equity of financial enterprises.
The second is to use China's foreign exchange reserves to buy gold held by the United States at a price lower than the market price.
Third, Taiwan Province Province will return to China with the rescue policy. From then on, the United States will not interfere in Taiwan Province Province, nor will it sell weapons to Taiwan Province Province.
(2) In view of the worldwide economic crisis caused by the worldwide hot money led by the United States, we in China cannot sit still and take it for granted.
On the one hand, it is suggested that legislation should be introduced to levy windfall tax to operate speculative business with hot money and obtain speculative profits. In essence, profiteering is not labor income, not operating income.
On the other hand, it is suggested that the state adopt a "one card management system" for enterprises and individuals. For foreign immigrants, use the identity of the country where the household registration is located to register for the "one card system" bank account. "All-in-one card system" is conducive to comprehensively monitoring the flow trend of hot money and strengthening the construction of annual, monthly and daily banking systems.
The speculative object of hot money is not only the virtual economic market, including stocks and their financial derivatives, but also any commodity market that can be manipulated by the market and is necessary for people's daily life. Therefore, the functional departments of the state have to do nothing, and even collude with officials and businessmen. That is dereliction of duty and a crime against the country and the people.
(3) Adjust the industrial structure, expand domestic demand and adjust the export direction.
Many experts and scholars have repeatedly talked about how to adjust the industrial structure and expand domestic demand in this economic crisis. I will only talk about two points here.
First, to expand domestic demand, urban-rural integration must go hand in hand. The first is the equality of civil rights. Farmers are allowed to enter cities, workers are allowed to go to the countryside and enterprises are allowed to go to the countryside. But enterprises are not allowed to directly contract land. Land can only be contracted jointly by individuals or collective workers, whether it is collective or state-owned, but land can never be privatized or contracted by enterprises. Prevent bureaucratic monopoly and foreign comprador occupation. Secondly, adjust the distribution pattern of public wealth and strengthen the management and supervision of public wealth. Improve the labor income of urban and rural residents, build a new socialist countryside, and let the working people have real purchasing power and real spending power. This labor income must be a hard indicator, which can be managed according to the one-card management method and with reference to the basic wage system of workers in the planned economy era.
The second is industrial restructuring. The adjustment of industrial structure must meet the requirements of combining long-term development interests with short-term interests of the country and have a long-term strategic vision.
First of all, in the industrial chain, China should have its own brand, and the export problem should not focus on hegemonic countries and superpowers. We must closely unite with third world countries and developing countries and actively develop economic and cultural exchanges with them; At the same time, we should develop exchanges and cooperation with the Oriental Group, so we can't completely stare at the superpower. At the same time, we should also look at our limited resources behind closed doors, improve the utilization rate and utilization cost of resources, and don't be blinded by the Green Paper.
Secondly, the industrial chain must be closely integrated with the needs of domestic economic development, and the industrial chain centered on improving people's living standards, especially the living standards of ordinary people, should pay attention to the transformation from export to domestic sales. Some enterprises that can only rely on exports and lack orders can be euthanized, especially reducing the supply of capital chain to foreign-funded enterprises.
Fourth, establish an international monetary fund that is not centered on any country and establish the World Bank.
At present, the world has fallen into the trap of dollar hegemony. As the world currency, the US dollar must first master the issuing right and pricing right of the world currency, and collect seigniorage and monopoly profits. The second is to buy the world's material wealth with white bars and set a trap to depreciate and default; The third is to wave the two killer weapons of floating interest rate and free convertibility of capital account, manipulate interest rate, direct the planned and targeted free flow of hot money, and rob the rich and help the poor in finance.
Under the economic globalization, unite the whole world, build the World Bank, establish the World Electronic Currency (GTB), replace the hegemony of the US dollar, resist the game that the US dollar controls the world wealth, and establish the World Electronic Currency Settlement Center. We can discuss from a small circle and make plans and strategies. For example, the two countries first established an electronic currency (GTP) settlement scheme, and then gradually formed a multinational alliance and developed into an international settlement method. Suspend the RMB globalization plan, otherwise it will fall into the strange circle of dollar hegemony again.
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