Although the global commodity prices have declined recently due to macroeconomic operation, the grain supply is still in a tense situation from the spot supply market.
It is reported that Sri Lanka, which was affected by the severe economic crisis, recently received China 1000 tons of rice aid, which will provide nutritious meals for six months for its 165438+ 10,000 children.
In Egypt, where consumption is higher, the latest news from the country shows that nearly 500,000 Egyptians have withdrawn from the ration card system so far, not because they are no longer needed, but because the supply of bread and vegetable oil subsidy system in the country is limited.
According to Egypt's explanation, citizens who can no longer enjoy subsidies at present include those whose monthly income exceeds 500 dollars, bosses of large enterprises, those who own new cars of 20 15 or later, families who spend more than 1070 dollars on their children's education every month, those who own farmland of 10 mu or more, those who travel abroad and those who have been abroad for more than three months in a row.
At the same time, it is stipulated that people who have not received rations for three days cannot receive all the rations again, and they must wait for 48 hours to receive the remaining rations.
At present, Egypt is seeking vegetable oil from Malaysia and Indonesia, and plans to import as much as100000 tons of wheat within six months.
In a tender this week, the lowest bid received by Egypt still reached $397.47/ton, from French wheat.
In addition, Pakistan Trading Company also announced the tender and purchase announcement of 500,000 tons of wheat this week.
On the other hand, Russia said that it can provide tens of millions of tons of grain exports at present, but some sanctions need to be lifted, including prohibiting foreign ships from entering Russian ports, prohibiting Russian ships from entering foreign ports for maintenance, restoring marine insurance, and implementing unimpeded bank transfers.
Earlier, just last week, the United States, the European Union and other countries indicated that they would not impose sanctions on Russian grain exports, but did not propose specific exemption measures.
At the same time, India has been criticized by many parties, including the WTO, for implementing the wheat export ban since May, believing that this has pushed up food prices, and together with Uruguay, it has requested to negotiate with India to use the peace clause to give farmers a subsidy ceiling of 10%.
According to the data, in order to ensure grain production, India also implements the policy of minimum purchase price of wheat.
In contrast, due to the blockade of export channels in the Black Sea region, the United States and the European Union indicated that they would help Ukraine's grain export business.
However, the latest data show that Ukraine has only exported 4 million tons of grain since February 24, of which the export volume of sunflower seeds alone is close to 6.5438+million tons, even exceeding the level of the same period last year, and most of them are exported to Europe.
Because, as the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, Ukrainian sunflower oil is the most important imported edible oil in Europe.
Relatively speaking, Ukraine still has about180,000 tons of grain that cannot be exported.
However, the Asian palm oil export market is facing another competition.
Indonesia previously announced a ban on palm oil exports, which caused the country to accumulate a large amount of stocks in a short period of time. With the announcement of the lifting of the export ban and the arrival of a new round of global interest rate hike, although there is not a large amount of domestic palm oil exports, it also causes the global palm oil price to fall by more than 20% in just one month, setting the biggest monthly decline since 2008.
Unless it is an urgent demand, buyers will wait for the price to fall further before buying.
Previously, some high-priced purchase orders had defaulted.
Because according to the normal trade time node, it takes at least one month from the purchase to the final listing, and the huge price fluctuation leads to the increased risk of middlemen.
Due to the uncertain downstream demand market, palm fruit in Indonesia and Malaysia fell sharply. In view of the fact that some palm factories, including Malaysia and Indonesia, have stopped production, it is required not to stop harvesting palm fruits from farmers, and Indonesia has even set a minimum purchase price.
In other respects, in view of the rise of emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the American Soybean Association recently planned to help Cambodia establish a sustainable aquaculture system.
According to the data, the rapid development of American soybean in China market is also realized through this kind of industrial technical support.
In addition, Bunky, an American multinational grain merchant, denied that it would sell its subsidiary in Russia.
It is reported that the company not only operates oil exploration business in Russia, but also has a crushing plant with an annual output of 200 million bottles of sunflower oil.
In the domestic market, today's wheat market prices are mixed, some varieties have raised prices, and the purchase price of grain reserves continues to decline slightly.
Among them, the third-grade price of the warehouse directly under the old town of China Grain Storage was 1.545 yuan/kg, down 9%; Flour industry in Lu Xin was 1.565 yuan/kg, up 1 point; Developed flour Weifang high-quality wheat 02- 1 is 1 min, and the latest price is 1.66 yuan.
In the corn market, we have noticed that the overall price increase of corn in recent days is less than expected, which has led to an increase in the willingness of some traders to cash out, and the market volume of corn has shown a phased upward trend.
Today, Binzhou Jinhui fell 5%, and the purchase price was 1.46/ kg; Zhucheng's trade promoted the decline 1 point, and the purchase price 1.485 yuan/kg.
According to JCI, an industry organization, it is estimated that the total amount of corn arriving in Hong Kong in the United States will reach 6.5438+0.84 million tons in June, exceeding the level in May.
Judging from the shipping schedule, the arrival scale of American corn in July is also expected to exceed 6,543,800 tons.
In terms of substitutes, it is estimated that the American sorghum will reach 700,000 tons in June, down from 900,000 tons in May.
In addition, at present, port grain merchants have begun to pre-sell American sorghum with the shipment date of112 this year, and the price is 2930 yuan/ton, which indicates that the next peak of American sorghum will be in the fourth quarter, and it is also a prediction of the price of corn in the new season.