The previous week, in the context of the appreciation of the US dollar index, the offshore and offshore RMB exchange rates were slightly adjusted after a sharp rise, and the two-way fluctuation of the RMB was obvious. "Overall, the correction is not as strong as the appreciation of the US dollar index, indicating that the RMB operation center is stable. In addition, the data of 5,438+10 in June showed that the social financing structure continued to improve, the characteristics of financial support entities were remarkable, the economy continued to recover, and exports continued to exceed expectations, which constituted the supporting conditions for the smooth operation of the RMB. " Cao Yuanyuan, technical director of Oriental Jincheng R&D Department, pointed out.
Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, said that the fundamental logic of the exchange rate change of RMB against the US dollar is the current spread between China and the United States. The interest rate level comprehensively reflects a country's economy, monetary policy and inflation, and the interest rate difference between China and the United States reflects the differences in economy and policy. In addition, the trade situation, the fundamentals of economic development and China's continuous opening to the outside world in the real economy and capital market have supported the continuous appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in recent months, and the attractiveness of RMB assets relative to other countries has been further enhanced.
Looking forward to the future trend, institutions generally believe that the RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain two-way fluctuation and basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level under the joint action of internal and external factors.
Lian Ping, chairman of the Forum of China's Chief Economists, said that the RMB will tend to appreciate in fluctuations, but the flexibility of two-way fluctuations will be greater. "In the future, the internationalization of the RMB and the further opening of China's financial market will help promote the further appreciation of the RMB. The internationalization of RMB will further promote the global demand for RMB. In global payment and settlement and other trading activities, RMB will be used more and more, and more and more traders and investors will hold RMB to invest in China financial market. At the same time, China's financial market is becoming more and more open, which will facilitate these investments and help more investors invest in RMB assets in RMB. " Lian Ping pointed out.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that there is still room for appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the future. Cao Yuanyuan said that considering the economic fundamentals and market sentiment, the expectation of RMB unilateral depreciation is still small, and the characteristics of two-way floating will be more obvious. Based on various factors, it is expected that the exchange rate index of RMB against a basket of currencies will appreciate to a certain extent in the short term.
Against the background of RMB appreciation for five consecutive months, capital is accelerating to flow into the domestic market. According to official data, overseas institutions have increased their holdings of China bonds for 23 consecutive months, and the scale of their holdings has been rising. By the end of 10, overseas institutions held 2.68 trillion yuan of China bonds, an increase of 86.6 billion yuan or 3.34% over the previous month.