In 2020, US exports decreased by $396.4 billion compared with the previous year to $ 2. 13 19 trillion, a decrease of15.7%; Compared with the previous year, US imports decreased by $294.5 billion to $2.8 106 trillion, down by 9.5%. Last year, the US trade deficit accounted for 3.2% of the US GDP, which was higher than 2.7% in 20 19.
This sharp rise in the US trade deficit is different from the past. According to historical experience, when the US economic situation deteriorates, its trade deficit usually narrows. During the economic downturn, American consumer spending declined, resulting in a corresponding decrease in commodity imports. Americans tend to travel less during the economic downturn, and service imports also declined. At the same time, the loose monetary and fiscal policies in the United States have led to a relatively weak dollar, which has promoted exports and attracted foreign tourists to spend in the United States. Therefore, according to past experience, the trade deficit of the United States narrowed during the economic recession.
However, in 2020, when the global epidemic spread, the trade deficit of the United States rose sharply, which was caused by the huge decline in exports and the relatively limited reduction in imports. Because the COVID-19 epidemic has disrupted the industrial chain and supply chain of American manufacturing industry, since February 2020, the United States has lost about 540,000 factory jobs, and the manufacturing industry, which accounts for about 12% of the American economy, has once again fallen into a downturn, and commodity production has been seriously affected. 3 trillion dollars of monetary and financial measures to release water, so that people can not only take advantage of the government's monthly free subsidies, but also maintain the original consumption pattern, thus making the decline in imports far less than the decline in exports. This situation also shows that the American economy and society are heavily dependent on goods from other countries.
Another factor is that the epidemic has led to a 65.9% year-on-year decline in global air passenger demand in 2020, and the American aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing is deeply mired in its own problems. Aircraft is an important industrial export product of the United States. In 20 17, the export of American civil aircraft, a powerful industry, reached $56 billion. As the largest exporter in the United States, due to the grounding of 737 MAX and production problems of 787, Boeing's revenue and aircraft delivery dropped sharply in 2020, making it the worst year in history. Boeing's financial report for the fourth quarter of 2020 shows that Boeing lost $8.4 billion in the fourth quarter due to the delayed delivery of related models; Revenue was $6543.8+$0.53 billion, down 654.38+05% year-on-year. This makes Boeing's annual loss in 2020 reach $65,438+01900 million; The annual revenue was US$ 58.2 billion, and 57 civil aircraft were delivered19, which decreased by 24% and 59% respectively compared with 20 19. The "grounding storm" not only caused Boeing to face huge losses, but also brought a big impact to the US export economy.
The United States restricts the export of high-tech products and services to China, which also makes the export performance of the United States unsatisfactory. From 20 18, the United States imposed all-round sanctions on China in the technical field. Huawei, ZTE, DJI and other Chinese-funded enterprises are listed on the restricted list by the United States, and the United States also imposes technical restrictions on China in many high-tech fields, among which the semiconductor field is the most serious. China is the largest semiconductor market in the world, so while imposing sanctions on China enterprises, American enterprises are also suffering huge losses caused by sanctions.
According to SEMI statistics, after the United States imposed technical sanctions on China enterprises such as Huawei, the export of the semiconductor industry in the United States was hit hard, with losses as high as $654.38+07 billion. Therefore, SEMI believes that this move actually weakens the competitiveness of the US semiconductor industry. In March last year, a global consulting report issued by Boston Consulting Group said that the escalation of tension between the two countries directly threatened "the US semiconductor industry's $49 billion income from the China market" because American companies were deprived of the right to fully enter the China 5G market by their own governments.
Analysts pointed out that although the last US President Trump waved the unilateral trade protection policy around and tried to reduce the trade deficit by imposing tariffs and other trade protection measures, the data showed that the trade war hurt the US economy and employment, leading to the expansion of the US trade deficit and the decrease of foreign direct investment. The epidemic has seriously weakened the global demand for American products and made American exports worse.
The trade deficit hit a new high of 12 years, which shows that the American economy is not as vigorous as its stock market. On the contrary, it shows that the production and supply of the market have not fully recovered and the economy is still in a weak recovery. In this way, the financial, monetary and zero interest rate incentives have not been withdrawn, and the future of the US economy depends on the result of the competition between the supply and vaccination speed of the US vaccine and the infection speed of COVID-19 virus.