Social security funds and QFII funds have entered the market one after another, which is conducive to improving market attention, but the effect of improving this attention can only be reflected in a long-term trend. Looking at their functions with a quick success and instant benefit mentality will probably disappoint many market participants, and investors should have an objective understanding of this.
After ubs warburg and Nomura Securities became quasi-QFIIs, the second batch of QFIIs such as Morgan Stanley were launched one after another. At the same time, six fund management companies have successively signed entrusted investment agreements for social security funds. Encouraged by this, the stock index returned to the annual line, and many investors rejoiced that the prelude of the big bull market was about to start. So, is the entry of social security funds and QFII funds really that effective?
First, it is difficult to quickly enlarge the scale of new funds.
As far as the social security fund is concerned, the disclosed approximate market entry amount is 654.38+0.6 billion, mainly invested in stocks and some corporate bonds. From the nature of social security fund, its security is very important because it is the life-saving money of ordinary people. According to relevant regulations, the proportion of bank deposits and national debt investment shall not be less than 50%. It can be seen that the overall operation idea of the social security fund should be to maintain and increase the value on the basis of ensuring the safety of the principal.
According to the scale of social security fund, theoretically, the amount that can enter the secondary stock market should be far more than 654.38+0.6 billion. However, considering that China's securities market is not perfect, and the initial loss experience of the social security fund when it invested 65.438+0.266 billion yuan in China Petrochemical in 2006.438+0, it should be said that it is unlikely to continue to expand its scale in the short term due to the consideration of risk control.
Regarding the entry of QFII into the market, it should be said that the first batch of QFII just got the license on May 26th. Less than 10 working day, that is, on June 6th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange approved the investment quotas of US$ 300 million from Bank of ubs warburg and US$ 50 million from Nomura Securities. The second batch of QFII such as Morgan Stanley, and the third batch of QFII such as Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs Group and HSBC will also enter the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for approval. Although QFII is enthusiastic at present, it is still in the initial stage of the running-in period of mutual understanding because it is the first time to set foot in the speculative domestic A-share market, so it has great potential for follow-up, but it will be restrained in the short term. In short, the increase of incremental funds will certainly help to improve the market center of gravity, but don't expect too much from the market value of the two cities of nearly 5 trillion.
Second, it takes time for incremental funds to enter the market.
According to relevant media reports, the opening time of the social security fund is within three months from June 9. Three months is not short, and 654.38+06 billion funds are dispersed to six fund management companies for operation. After deducting the amount of corporate bonds, its market impact will be moderate. Ubs warburg, which has the strongest desire to enter the market in QFII, basically has no obstacles after signing an agreement with Shen Yin countries. However, the relevant person of the bank said that the company originally considered entering the market as soon as it got the investment quota, but the funds were not in place, so it has not yet entered the market. According to his explanation, the reason why the funds are not in place is mainly because these investment funds are not the funds already in hand, but the funds raised from their customers, so there will be a process. Nomura Securities, which belongs to the first batch, has not yet confirmed its customers, and I am afraid it will take a long time to enter the market. It can be seen that the capital investment of social security funds and QFII has a long process, and basically will not have a decisive impact on the short-term market trend.
Third, the operation style is stable for a long time, and it will not quickly set off waves in the market.
Judging from the nature of social security fund and QFII, both of them are long-term funds, which require high stability of long-term income and liquidity of funds. They are completely different from the previous mode of financing through borrowing. China Petrochemical, which has been held by social security fund for nearly two years, is a good example. The latter's funds have strict deadlines, which has contributed to the mode of quick success and instant benefit. If it is not good, the capital chain will break due to the failure to repay on time within the specified time, which will lead to the continuous diving of individual stocks. It can be seen that the capital operation of social security fund and QFII will be completely different from the previous village-running mode, and their operation style will be relatively stable, which is determined by the nature of their funds, so the impact on the secondary market will be subtle for a long time. It can be seen that the hype about social security funds and QFII comes more from the hype about their themes than their real market influence.
Fourth, to promote the change of investment concept, the status of blue chip will become increasingly prominent.
Under the market background that the scale of open-end funds is expanding, social security funds enter the market, the proportion of insurance funds entering the market is increasing, and QFII institutions are expanding, the investment concept of advocating performance and development is being accepted by more and more people, and it will be the general trend that the status of big blue chips will become increasingly prominent. A simple example can reflect the problem. Large institutional investors have higher requirements for stock liquidity, and large-cap stocks that can be easily cashed out have natural advantages in this respect. The two-day trend of large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks is a very obvious phenomenon of market effect brought about by changes in investor structure. Of course, the bigger the plate, the better, but it has enough liquidity to at least enter the category of institutional stock selection. The capital supply of the whole market is quite abundant. From the analysis of the nature of funds mentioned above, we know that more and more funds have joined the ranks of long-term funds, which is obviously different from the previous financing. There is no doubt that blue-chip stocks are favored by long-term funds for their outstanding strategic position, stable business style and stable income. At present, the continuous diving of Zhuangzi shares, to a certain extent, announced the beginning of the disintegration of Laozi and Zhuangzi, and also prompted the market to think more deeply about the new investment concept. Therefore, the development prospects of blue-chip stocks will continue to be optimistic.
Fifth, the investment of social security fund and QFII needs further study.
This trend has been expounded by many media, so I won't repeat it in this article. However, it should be reminded that the hottest plate at present is not necessarily the plate they want to intervene in. For example, the automobile sector, as one of the fast-developing national economic industries, attracted hot money because of its short-term high-speed growth, but its value was fully reflected after repeated stock price speculation. In addition, the industry is in the Warring States period to compete for market share, expand production scale and strive for a prominent position in the industry. The capital demand is far greater than the return it can give investors. There are still many variables which companies can become real blue chips in the future. The automobile industry has set off a new wave of price reduction, which is uncoordinated in the context of RMB depreciation following the dollar and high steel prices. It shows that the automobile market environment tends to deteriorate. Changan Automobile's performance was questioned, and FAW Car's earnings per share declined in the first quarter, all indicating that China's automobile industry is far from reaching the mature level of developed countries. From this perspective, overseas funds may not be optimistic. An example is that several QFII did not list auto stocks among them when they announced their investment ideas. Obviously, the social security fund will not take over this hot potato at a high level. In contrast, petrochemical and steel stocks have greater potential.
In short, social security funds and QFII funds have entered the market one after another, which is conducive to enhancing market attention. However, the effect of this focus enhancement can only be reflected in a long-term trend. Looking at their functions with a quick success and instant benefit mentality will probably disappoint many market participants, and investors should have an objective understanding of this.
social security system
1. Definition: The social security system is a system that the state provides protection for the basic living rights of social members based on certain laws and regulations and social security funds.
2. Main contents: China's social security system includes social insurance, social relief, social welfare, special care and placement, and social mutual assistance.
3. Purpose: The goal of China's social security system construction is to establish a unified, standardized and perfect social security system, and truly form a social security system with China characteristics, which is independent of enterprises and institutions, diversified in funding sources, standardized in security system and socialized in management services.
4. Role:
The universal social security system is the "propeller" of social and economic development, the "regulator" of realizing social equity and the "stabilizer" of maintaining social stability.
① Establishing and perfecting the social security system will promote and guarantee the deepening reform of enterprises. The surplus staff of enterprises must get proper living guarantee in the process of re-employment, and provide a stable social environment for enterprises to participate in market competition, operate independently and be responsible for their own profits and losses.
(2) Establishing and perfecting the social security system will help to enhance the vitality of enterprises and promote economic development. It has played an important supporting role for new and old enterprises to participate in market competition on an equal footing and promote economic development.
③ Establishing and perfecting the social security system is conducive to safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of workers and promoting social stability. It regulates the excessive disparity in income level and wealth among members of society, and realizes the fair distribution of society to a certain extent. This has a positive effect on alleviating social contradictions, coordinating social relations and maintaining social stability.
Main problems existing in China's current social security system
After the overall goal of social security is determined, there is a lack of specific goals and long-term planning, and the boundaries between rights and responsibilities of the government, enterprises and individuals are unclear.
-Avoid historical problems and form institutional defects.
□ The problem of low overall planning level has not been solved for a long time.
-unfair protection for different social groups.
After the overall goal of social security is determined, there is a lack of specific goals and long-term planning.
The Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee determined that the overall goal of China's social security system reform is to "basically establish a complete social security system with multi-channel funding sources, multi-level security methods, equal rights and obligations, and socialized management services." The Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee also proposed that "the level of social security should be compatible with the development level of China's social productive forces and the affordability of all aspects."
First of all, there is a lack of goal setting for different protection levels. At present, China's social security system is mixed with insurance. What rights do citizens have and what rights are guaranteed by social security are basically confusing. There is no clear concept of what should be guaranteed by the government and what should be guaranteed by individuals. In this way, some of the rights guaranteed are not guaranteed, but the part that should not be guaranteed by social security has spent a lot of financial and material resources to guarantee.
Second, there is a lack of goal setting at different stages. China's economy and society are in a period of rapid transformation and development. There is no clear understanding of what kind of social security level is suitable for what stage of economic life development and how to adapt it, let alone long-term planning and overall deployment. In this way, when there are any problems in the economy and society, relevant policies will be introduced immediately, which will inevitably lead to a situation of "treating the headache and treating the foot". There are many temporary policies and few long-term policies, and the system design is becoming more and more complicated, and the implementation cost is getting higher and higher, but the policy effect is often unsatisfactory and even leads to dissatisfaction.
The boundary between rights and responsibilities of government, enterprises and individuals is not clear.
China's social security reform is based on reducing the responsibilities of the government and state-owned enterprises. However, with the continuous advancement of reform, the definition of responsibility of government, enterprises and individuals is still vague. The proportion of national financial social security expenditure in total expenditure increased from 5.5% in 1998 to1.2% in 2005, with an average annual growth rate of 29.8%. Only the central government's investment in "two guarantees" and "minimum living security" increased from 9.6 billion yuan in 1998 to 80.4 billion yuan in 2005, with an average annual increase of 35.5%. The investment of local governments at all levels in social security is also increasing year by year. But at the same time, enterprises and individuals generally feel that the burden of paying social security is getting heavier and heavier. The proportion of individual basic pension contributions has increased from 3% to 8% year by year, and the payment base has also increased year by year. People's dissatisfaction with the social security system is also increasing. An important reason for the dissatisfaction of all parties is that the responsibilities of all parties are not clearly defined. Where the government's money is spent, the people are not very clear; There is no clear expectation for the rate of return paid by enterprises and individuals. So, what is the responsibility of the government and how much it should bear; We should further clarify the responsibilities of enterprises and individuals in what areas and at what levels, and truly establish a responsibility mechanism.
Avoiding the problems left over from history and forming institutional defects.
China's social security system faces two basic realistic conditions: one is the problem of aging population; The first is the historical debt problem.
Population aging means that the proportion of the elderly population to the total population is getting higher and higher. 2 1 century, China has entered an aging society, and the degree of aging has intensified, and the burden coefficient of pension funds has gradually increased, and pension insurance payment will enter a peak period. While ensuring that retirees' pensions are paid in full and on time, the phenomenon that the pension funds are unable to meet their expenses and are short of funds has become increasingly prominent, and the pension funds have entered a state of intense operation, and some areas even have fund deficits. In addition, enterprise restructuring and early retirement make this problem more serious, which directly affects the operation and function of China's old-age insurance system.
Historical implicit debt is an important issue in the design of China's current endowment insurance system. The reform of social security system in China began in the mid-1980s. People who have retired before have not paid their pensions, so they have no personal accounts. For people who used to work, their personal accounts were incomplete from the beginning of pension payment. Therefore, the retirement expenses of these people can only be borne by those who are working. Under the pressure of historical debt, the social pooling of China's old-age insurance system and the combination of personal accounts have accumulated funds. Due to the empty operation of personal accounts, most areas exist in name only. Once China's economy enters a period of steady development and an aging society, it is impossible for the pension received in the current period to bear the retirement expenses of retirees. If we can't take various measures to solve the historical debt owed to middle-aged and elderly workers caused by the transformation of the old and new pension systems, it will eventually have a great impact on the social security system in China in the future.
The basic endowment insurance fund has a huge gap, the payment pressure is increasing year by year, and the payment risk is becoming increasingly prominent.
The problem of low level of overall planning has not been solved for a long time.
The low level of overall planning is a serious defect of China's social security system, which has caused a series of other problems.
First, the social security system between different places is not uniform. Over the years, social security reform has been decided by regions, and each region has formulated policies, standards and measures that are only applicable to its own region, resulting in different payment levels and management methods among regions.
Second, it is difficult to transfer between regions. Due to the non-uniform security system in different places, the transfer of social security between regions is blocked, which is not only difficult to transfer between provinces, but also difficult to transfer between provinces. This completely violates the requirements of the market economy for the free flow of labor. With the increasing mobility of human resources in China, the difficulty of cross-regional transfer has a great negative impact on the collection and distribution of social security funds.
Third, various social security policies lack uniform standards. Social security policies include basic old-age insurance, unemployment insurance, industrial injury insurance, maternity insurance, minimum social security and other types of insurance, and different types of insurance are often formulated by different departments. However, the social security coverage targets are both targeted and cross-cutting, and the introduction of various policies is often to solve outstanding problems in reality, which cannot be brewed for a long time, so there are contradictions and conflicts among various systems. According to different policies, different rescue or security standards can be implemented, and the newly introduced policies will affect the implementation of previous policies.
The fourth is the difficulty of fund management. According to China's current policy, social security funds below the provincial level can only be deposited in banks or purchased from government bonds. For some time, the interest rates of banks and government bonds in China have been low, and the bank interest rate has been lower than the inflation rate. When the real interest rate is negative, the social security fund is actually depreciating. This makes the already severe social security fund situation in China even more severe. On the other hand, it is difficult to guarantee the safety of social security fund management institutions below the provincial level if they invest. Therefore, in order to maintain and increase the value of the fund, it is necessary to improve the overall level of social security funds and conduct overall management at the central level.
The safety treatment of different social groups is unfair.
First, the social security treatment between regions is unfair. The underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions are labor exporting places, and the exported laborers work in developed areas and pay social security funds. However, in the reality that it is difficult to improve the overall level of social security and transfer it across regions, the funds they paid can only stay in developed regions and cannot be recovered. This is also one of the important reasons for the abundant social security funds in the eastern developed areas and the lack of funds in the underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions, thus forming a strange phenomenon of "supporting the rich with poverty" and making the development of the already unbalanced areas even more unbalanced.
Second, the social security benefits between enterprises and government officials are unfair. For a long time, the different operation and adjustment mechanisms of the social security dual-track system between enterprises and institutions have not only caused different social security burdens among employees of enterprises and institutions, but also widened the treatment gap between retirees of enterprises and institutions, resulting in unfairness and social dissatisfaction.
Third, the social security benefits between enterprises with different ownership and employees with different forms of employment are unfair. There is still a big gap from the goal of basic old-age insurance coverage. A large number of employees of non-public enterprises, flexible employees, migrant workers and landless peasants are still outside the old-age insurance system. The actual payment rate of the insured is not high, and the payment period is intermittent. In terms of unemployment insurance, employees in joint-stock enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises and township enterprises with the most unstable jobs actually have no unemployment protection. In terms of industrial injury insurance, China is currently facing the reality of high accident rate in high-risk industries. In 2006, there were 1 12822 deaths in production safety accidents. The incidence of occupational diseases is increasing. In 2006, 676,562 cases of occupational diseases were reported nationwide. The industrial injury problem of migrant workers is very prominent. Most migrant workers in cities are engaged in high-risk industries, and the risk of occupational hazards is much higher than that of employees in other industries, and they often do not participate in work-related injury insurance.
In fact, according to the current system, the more vulnerable groups need social security, the more they can't afford it. Take flexible employment and unemployed people as examples. No one pays the part that the enterprise should pay for it, but the base of payment should be based on the average wage of the local society. Therefore, a large number of low-income groups are simply unable to pay all kinds of social security, becoming long-term unpaid social security groups, and thus unable to enjoy social security.
The fourth is the unfairness between urban and rural areas. The rural population accounts for the majority of the population in China, but the rural social security system has not yet formed. Although the Sixth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee explicitly proposed to establish a "social security system covering urban and rural residents", the new rural social security system is still in the exploratory stage, and the rural old-age insurance in most places is basically at a standstill. An effective institutional model has not yet been formed, and the development in various places is extremely uneven.
Technical problems of system design and management
With the deepening of the reform of social security system, the design of social security system in China is becoming more and more complicated and the management cost is getting higher and higher. The construction of the whole social security system has obvious emergency characteristics, and the degree to which a security system is valued varies with the size of political voices of different social groups, the size of departmental power or the size of personal influence. The characteristics of non-institutionalization are very obvious, the level of legalization is not high, and even the existing laws and regulations are seriously lacking in law enforcement. There is a lack of communication and coordination between departments, systems and superiors and subordinates, and offside and absence sometimes occur. The financing of social security fund is not standardized, the fund management level is limited, and the supervision of social security fund needs to be improved. The level of electronic management also needs to be improved.