2008 is destined to be an extraordinary year.
2008 was also an eventful year for global financial markets. This week after the seventh anniversary of 9 1 1 incident has become
The most thrilling week in the history of Wall Street. September 15, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States.
Entering the bankruptcy protection procedure according to Article 1 1 of the Bankruptcy Law means that this investment bank with a history of 158 has left.
Become history. The growth history of Lehman Brothers is a microcosm of the modern American financial history, and its bankruptcy is the world financial history.
The last big event.
The rise and fall of Lehman Brothers
Lehman Brothers, founded in 1850, is an international investment bank headquartered in new york. Lehman brothers
Since its establishment, Brother Company has experienced American Civil War, two world wars, Great Depression and "9? 1 1 "attack
Strike and acquisition, standing all the time, is Roy, a professor of finance at new york University? Smith described it as "yes"
A cat with 19 lives. "
1994, Lehman Brothers was listed on the new york Stock Exchange through IPO and officially became a public company. In 2000,
On the 50th anniversary of the establishment of Lehman Brothers, its share price broke through 100 for the first time and entered the S&P 100 index.
Shares. In 2005, Lehman Brothers managed assets of US$ 654.38+075 billion, and Standard & Poor's rated its creditor's rights as follows
A promoted to a+; In the same year, Lehman Brothers was named the best investment bank of the year by Euromoney.
Lehman once dominated the mortgage securitization business, but in the end it was also defeated in this industry.
The subprime mortgage crisis caused by business. On September 9, 2008, Lehman's stock began to plummet and fell within a week.
The price plummeted by 77%, and the company's market value shrank sharply from11200 million dollars to 2.5 billion dollars; Until it finally closes.
Bankruptcy Lehman's bankruptcy frightened the CEO of Merrill Lynch, who quickly sold Merrill Lynch for $44 billion.
To Bank of America.
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Why does it always happen in investment banks?
Among the top five investment banks in the United States, Lehman collapsed, Merrill Lynch was acquired, and Bay was acquired by Morgan at the beginning of the year.
Six months later, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs became the only five major investment banks on Wall Street.
Investment banks, that is, securities companies, used to be very proud and had great momentum to dominate the financial sector and the income of investment bankers.
It is also the highest in the financial sector and a place that many people yearn for. Traditionally, investment banks are mainly engaged in securities business.
Issue, transaction, enterprise reorganization, merger and acquisition, investment analysis, venture capital, project financing, etc.
It is the main financial intermediary in the capital market. In recent years, investment banks have become an important source of financial innovation.
. From the initial financing for trade and infrastructure two centuries ago to the strong intervention in enterprise restructuring.
Securities and futures markets, etc.
In fact, when financial innovation intensifies, the nature of investment banks is becoming more and more like a high-end casino.
Investment banks designed wonderful financial ideas and put them into practice, which gave birth to a market miracle. also
It is precisely because of this that investment banking is a "money-making" industry, which has contributed to the acquisition of 654.38 billion yuan. It is estimated that it
It wants to take 1 100 million, but it pays a few so-called high IQ planning and evaluation, and can buy some money at most.
The stock wavered. Under the signboard of innovation and the temptation of huge profits, investment banks are certainly passionate, aren't they?
Spare no effort, even take risks.
Before the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, international financial institutions blindly used high leverage such as "securitization" and "derivatives"
Leveraged structured products pursue investment bank income, and the whole financial industry is immersed in the wealth feast brought by high leverage ratio.
We forget that financial innovation is actually a "double-edged sword", and the market bubble will eventually burst. time
The loan crisis is actually the product of excessive credit expansion. All kinds of credit have expanded substantially, and the actual affordability has been placed.
Anyway. It not only creates an illusory and wonderful prospect, but also stimulates the desire for greed and speculation.
The origin of economy and finance is to provide people with the needs and convenience of life. However, in endless interest.
In the pursuit of consumption, people forget the purpose of production and lose the direction of life. The only goal is to do more.
More, better and stronger, as to whether it is so necessary, no one will seriously think about it. A family of three.
A family of four, living in a house of 1000 feet is already very good, why do you have to chase 2000 feet? everybody
They all lost their direction and purpose, only pursued the greatest interests and lost the standard of value judgment. When everything
When everything is based on interests and enjoyment, it is difficult to completely avoid extinction and disaster.
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Lehman, regardless of the risk, finally brought about its own destruction. (Getty's picture)
Virtual finance is seriously out of touch with real economic life.
After the emergence of financial innovation, financial investment began to rely too much on quantitative models, and theoretical assumptions were seriously out of touch with market reality.
Out of touch, the prediction of future changes in capital gains is also seriously distorted. Lehman Brothers dabbled in too many complex derivatives.
With the market, there is a transmission process after the problem appears, and it is difficult to emerge immediately, so I am still addicted to the past.
Brilliant, missed many opportunities to save the country, and finally collapsed because the US government refused to guarantee the bottom.
In recent years, mathematical models with strict assumptions and complex theoretical structure have been deeply influenced by global investment banks and hedgers.
The pursuit of funds and rating agencies has become the main tool to measure financial risks. That's why so many numbers.
Reasons why doctors of science and computer science entered investment banks.
However, in this subprime crisis, although financial institutions have established sophisticated pricing for subprime derivatives.
And rating model, but in the face of the actual situation of the sudden reversal of the US real estate market price, the premise of the model is the assumption.
Serious deviation from the real market risk, leading to the failure of risk pricing function, causing investors to panic, and through
"Herd effect" transmits and amplifies risks, which eventually leads to a full-scale financial crisis.
The real economic life is ever-changing, and the mathematical model is exquisite and huge, so it is difficult to cover all emotions.
Conditions and risk characteristics, if we worship mathematical models too much, the change of market risk can be described by several parameters.
Instead of rational market investment decisions, it will inevitably lead to crisis.
In the past 30 years, the result of financial innovation is that the chain of buying and selling is getting longer and longer and the scope of dispersion is getting wider and wider.
After easy completion, the final investor and the initial borrower have been separated by Qian Shan, and they don't know each other at all.
. For example, the subprime mortgage products that triggered this crisis, from the initial mortgage to the final CDO, and so on.
Derivative products go through complex stages such as borrowing, packaging, credit enhancement, rating and sales, and the whole process.
There are dozens of different institutions involved in the design, and the problem of information asymmetry is very prominent. Bonus incentives for investment banks
It also greatly encourages the moral hazard of senior management-pursuing high bonuses and bonuses, ignoring prudential requirements,
Innovate business blindly.
In fact, the current subprime mortgage crisis has not yet passed the dangerous period and has not come to an end. The term of subprime loans is mostly 30 years.
Now it is just five years since the issuance of subprime bonds. The size of the entire subprime mortgage and derivatives in the United States
Of the 12 trillion dollars, it only wrote off 500 billion dollars, less than 1/20 dollars. No matter how big the subordinated debt is.
From the perspective of time span, the crisis is likely to continue further.
Lehman got caught up in its own gambling.
The direct cause of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy is that the subprime mortgage crisis caused its financial products to become bad debts, because
It bet too much on secondary products. In addition to betting on subprime products, Lehman also bet on credit default swaps. "credit
The English name of default swap is credit default swap, or "CDS" for short, which is a product for transferring fixed interest.
Credit risk swap arrangement, Lehman's amount involved in CDS is as high as 800 billion US dollars.
The capital market is a gamble, so is Lehman. The capital market is the so-called leveraged financing, that is, there is a small amount.
Have your own funds and borrow twice as much. The average leverage ratio of Wall Street is 14.5 times.
Guo Xunjie, director of structured financial products trading department of Credit Suisse, said: "Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers are very big.
The reason why Class I investment banks closed down in an instant is essentially because they invested a lot of money in subprime loans.
Securities products, and the investment principles of these products generally have a large proportion of investment leverage, that is, these products.
The investment gains and losses of products are magnified by a large proportion-if you earn, you will earn more, and if you lose, you will lose more.
. At this time, there is no difference between the strength of big banks and small banks. Now, which bank can participate in this finance?
Survival in the crisis depends on the distance between them and financial products related to subprime loans. 」
Before the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, Lehman Brothers held a large number of subprime financial products (including MBS and CDO).
And other low-grade housing mortgage financial products. After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, due to subprime mortgage
The rising default rate has caused the credit rating and market value of subprime financial products to plummet. With the wind of credit
If the risk continues to expand from subprime mortgage, the credit rating of lower-grade mortgage financial products will be lower.
Grade and market value also began to decline sharply. All products have problems, and when it comes to terminal illness.
The government is hard to save.
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People in Europe were heartbroken when they learned that Lehman had gone bankrupt. (Getty's picture)
Why didn't the US government rescue Lehman Brothers?
Lehman Brothers Bibel Stearns was even bigger. Why did the US government save Bear Stearns and two other companies?
After the House of Representatives, it refused to provide credit support for Bank of America and Barclays, which planned to buy Lehman Brothers.
What if Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy? Is this practice of the US government suspected of favoring one over the other?
In fact, after the US government rescued Bear Stearns, the Fed received a lot of criticism. Most representative
The sexual opinion is, why should the government use taxpayers' money to pay for the investment decision-making mistakes of financial institutions?
? Will government aid private financial institutions breed new moral hazard, that is, encourage financial institutions to take on greater responsibilities?
Anyway, the risks of the previous government? So, when Lehman Brothers had an accident, the US government had to
More cautious.
On the one hand, it has been more than a year since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, and market investors have no idea about the causes and possibilities of the subprime mortgage crisis.
There is a clear understanding of the possible losses, and a series of rescue measures taken by the US government have also begun to be introduced.
Under this premise, the collapse of an investment bank will not cause greater panic in the financial market;
On the other hand, under the torrent of criticism of the government's bailout, the US government also needs to clarify its position, namely
Unless it causes systemic risks, the US government will not easily use taxpayers' money to save the private sector. private
Institutions should be responsible for their own decisions, including not only management, but also shareholders. That's why.
When the U.S. government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it said that it only protected the interests of creditors, but changed the management and seriously diluted them.
The value of shareholders' equity of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is analyzed. Taking responsibility for investment failure is one of the core principles of the free market.
At least seven China financial institutions are creditors of Lehman.
After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, on September 17, China Merchants Bank took the lead in announcing the ownership of Lehman Brothers.
The risk exposure of issuing bonds is * * * 70 million USD; Among them, the senior bond is USD 60 million and the subordinated bond is USD 65.438+million.
Dollars. On September 18, Bank of China announced that China Bank Group * * * holds Lehman Brothers Holding Company and its subsidiaries.
75.62 million dollars in bank bonds. On the same day, Industrial Bank announced that as of the date of this announcement, it has cooperated with Lehman Brothers of the United States.
The total risk exposure arising from the company's related investments and transactions is $33.6 million.
ICBC revealed that at present, the bank (including overseas institutions) holds Lehman bonds, which are linked to Lehman credit.
The total bond balance is $65,438+0.510.80 billion. CITIC Bank and China Construction Bank also admitted to holding Lehman bonds,
However, how big the quota is, it is currently being checked. According to relevant sources, Lehman bonds are held by two banks.
Both exceeded the total amount of China Merchants Bank. Bank of Communications related people said that they have business dealings with Lehman, but the impact is
Limit, risk controllable.
However, the existing statistics are only for transactions that have been clearly stipulated, and there are many major transactions because they involve laws.
The identification of this part of the loss is not clear. And institutions that do business with Lehman will also fail to deliver.
Banks bring about capital problems, especially back-to-back delivery (buy first and then sell, but now you can't buy). at present
The problem of account overdraft has appeared in this kind of products. If it continues to develop, I'm afraid there will be more than one crisis.
It's 7 o'clock.
In addition, Lehman also has a large number of mortgage loans, commercial real estate-related assets, subprime mortgages and CDO risks.
Selling these assets in liquidation may lower the market's valuation of similar assets, thus making them
Other institutions bring more additional write-down losses.
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Wall Street is facing a once-in-a-century financial storm. (Getty's picture)
How much did China lose in foreign exchange reserves during the financial turmoil?
Macroeconomic analysis and forecast of the third quarter of 2008 released by the Institute of Economics of Renmin University of China on September 2 1.
It is pointed out that "the price of China's foreign exchange reserve assets is affected by factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar and investment income.
It has shrunk dramatically and its net loss has reached $36 billion. 」
The report pointed out that due to the subprime mortgage crisis, speculation in the financial market led to a sharp rise in the prices of bulk products, and
Through the channel of price loss, the actual purchasing power value of China's foreign exchange reserves has been greatly reduced. Moreover, in dollar terms,
Exchange rate depreciation, investment income and other factors, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar through the assets of valuation effects.
The price of foreign exchange reserve assets that have to be priced has shrunk dramatically.
Wang Jinbin, assistant dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, pointed out that due to China's international asset management level and people,
The weak position of currency in the international payment system and the future price of China's foreign exchange reserve assets.
Will shrink, China's loss will be greater.
Experience/comment:
The reason why management will fail is simple, but it is blinded by profiteering and rationality.