As an important industry, real estate security is directly related to financial security and macroeconomic security.
The accelerated appreciation of RMB has had a considerable impact on the regulation of the real estate market. Because the people
The monetary capital account is not freely convertible, and a large amount of hot money enters through various channels and means.
To buy real estate, so that rising house prices and RMB appreciation coexist, and foreign capital will benefit from it.
According to the quarterly report issued by the Bank for International Settlements on June 5438+February, 2006 1 1, the house in China
The housing loan market reached $227 billion, ranking first in Asia. If real estate prices fall,
Now it has fallen sharply, and the mortgage value of the property held by the bank itself will decrease, which will affect it.
Real estate credit, which will push the real estate price down more sharply, thus
Causing financial risks. Therefore, how to keep house prices within a reasonable range, from
And prevent possible financial risks to the greatest extent, curb housing prices and prevent wind.
The win-win situation of insurance will depend on the management wisdom of public management departments and the art of system design.
That is, whether the regulatory measures that have been introduced are targeted and the implementation of policies.
2. 1 Impact of RMB appreciation on banking industry
In 2005, China resumed its managed floating exchange rate system under heavy pressure. After that, the accelerated appreciation of RMB exchange rate will further increase the domestic inflationary pressure, hit the confidence of foreign investors, lead to the decline of China's attraction to foreign investment, reduce the profits of China enterprises and increase the employment pressure. In addition, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate may also trigger bubbles in other asset markets in China, especially the real estate industry and the stock market. These studies have been the focus of extensive attention from all walks of life in China, so what is the impact of RMB appreciation on China's banking industry?
2. 1. 1 Enhance the international competitiveness of China's banking industry.
Domestic banks mainly deal in RMB assets, and the total assets of each bank range from several hundred billion yuan to several trillion yuan. Equivalent RMB assets can be exchanged or equivalent to more US dollars or other foreign currency assets due to the appreciation of RMB. At the same time, the proportion of foreign currency assets and liabilities owned by some banks is small and basically matched, and the appreciation has little effect on their foreign currency assets and liabilities. Even the bank profits formed by RMB deposit-loan spreads increase with the appreciation of RMB and the enhancement of RMB purchasing power, so the appreciation is conducive to enhancing the international competitiveness of domestic banks.
2. 1.2 is conducive to the restructuring of China's banking industry and the introduction of foreign capital to provide low-cost funds for banks.
Judging from the historical experience of Japan and South Korea, their capital markets are developing rapidly with the appreciation of their currencies. The stable and healthy development of the capital market is conducive to improving the governance level and profitability of Chinese enterprises and to the restructuring and transformation of China's banking industry. At the same time, under the background of RMB appreciation, a large amount of funds entered China, which provided abundant funds for Chinese banks, increased bank liquidity and provided low-cost funds for banks.
2. 1.3 is conducive to the gradual transformation of RMB into a quasi-international currency, which will improve the credit level and profits of China's banking industry.
The international status of a country's currency mainly depends on its stability, security and economic aggregate. The appreciation of RMB means the stability of currency value and the increase of economic aggregate, which is bound to improve China's position in the international financial market. At present, the status of China's economic aggregate in the world economy is not high, but RMB is widely used as a means of circulation in border trade because of its extremely stable status. If the RMB exchange rate is bullish, its credit will be greatly improved and it will gradually become a quasi-international currency. China is a developing country with a low per capita economic level, but a large economic aggregate, which is different from other developing countries. If there is international credit, it will help China banks to do business abroad. Increase the profits of the Bank of China.
2. 1.4 RMB appreciation will lead to the decrease of foreign currency denominated assets of banks.
Since July 2, 2005, the China government has allowed the RMB exchange rate to fluctuate within a monitored range according to market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. On the same day, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by about 2%. If the RMB appreciates against the US dollar or other foreign currencies, the appreciation will lead to the reduction of bank-related foreign currency assets. At the same time, since China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are listed in Hong Kong, the conversion of funds raised by H-share issuance into RMB will also devalue these stocks, thus causing losses. For example, from the perspective of three large listed banks, the net foreign exchange exposure at the end of 2007 was $65.438+06.585 billion for ICBC, $46.5438+00 billion for BOC and $7.935 billion for CCB (converted at the exchange rate of 7.3 at the end of 2007), and the foreign exchange gains and losses were: ICBC lost $68.88./kloc-0.00 million, BOC lost $980 million, and CCB lost $980 million.
2. 1.5 Rapid appreciation will cause the decline of export-oriented enterprises and affect the quality of loans.
Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has appreciated faster and faster against the US dollar, with an appreciation rate of 9. 10% from July 2 to June 20, 2008. With the rapid appreciation of RMB and the deterioration of external environment, China's export enterprises will face great challenges. According to the research report of China Banking Research Center of Central University of Finance and Economics, nearly 57% of small and medium-sized export enterprises have a profit rate after tax of less than 5%, 28% have a profit rate of 5%- 10%, only 9.57% have a profit rate of 15%, and only 5.44% have a profit rate higher than 15%. With the rapid appreciation of RMB, China's export enterprises will face severe survival pressure. Under the background of appreciation, the profit margins of these enterprises are further reduced, which will lead to the decline of the loan quality of the banking industry to these enterprises, the increase of risk factors and the increase of non-performing assets of banks.
2. 1.6 induces the inflow of international speculative capital, and the stability of China's financial system may be damaged.
At present, China's financial supervision system is relatively weak, the development of financial market is relatively backward, the function of securities market is imperfect, the bond market is underdeveloped, there are still many institutional defects in the stock market, and the speculative atmosphere is strong. In this case, the short-term appreciation of RMB will lead to a large amount of short-term capital flowing into the securities market through various channels, and its profit-seeking behavior will easily lead to a monetary and financial crisis, which will adversely affect the sustained and healthy development of China's economy. In addition, the stability of China's capital account surplus is not good. In recent years, the world's total direct investment has shown a downward trend, while foreign investment in China has increased rapidly. In 2002, foreign direct investment in China reached US$ 50 billion, and China surpassed the United States for the first time to become the largest country in attracting foreign direct investment. One of the important reasons is that foreign investors regard China as a "safe haven". The so-called "shelter from the wind" includes short-term behavior. Once the international economy recovers, some foreign capital may be withdrawn. With the gradual opening of China's capital account, foreign investment activities will continue to expand, and it is difficult to maintain a large surplus in the capital account under the condition of two-way capital flow. All these will damage the stability of China's financial system, and then affect the development of China's banking industry.
The appreciation of RMB will affect the effectiveness of monetary policy and the stability of financial market. The foreign exchange rate of each country is basically stable under normal circumstances. However, once it encounters the pressure of appreciation, it forces the central bank to buy a large amount of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, thus increasing the base currency in the form of foreign exchange holdings, resulting in inefficient use of funds and affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy. Due to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the fiscal deficit will increase. At the same time, it affects the stability of monetary policy. In addition, the appreciation of RMB will affect the stability of financial markets, especially in countries with relatively backward financial market development. A large amount of short-term capital flows into the capital market through various channels for profit, which can easily trigger a monetary and financial crisis and adversely affect the sustained and healthy development of the economy. For China, which relies on foreign investment for prosperity, the possible impact cannot be ignored. At present, the severe challenge faced by the Bank of China's monetary policy is excess liquidity. The foreign exchange settlement and sale business of commercial banks has obtained a large number of RMB positions, and with the strong growth of savings, the liquidity is obviously surplus. A large part of the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves is related to the expectation of RMB appreciation. In order to provide a relatively relaxed environment for exchange rate reform and avoid the influx of international hot money, the central bank lowered the market interest rate to increase the cost of international speculative capital.
To sum up, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's banking industry has both advantages and disadvantages. We should take advantage of the situation, steadily promote the reform of exchange rate system, speed up the exchange rate flexibility range, further promote the reform of financial system with state-owned banks as the main body, establish a flexible market exchange rate mechanism, and launch new foreign exchange risk products. Introduce some advanced trading methods and systems, and pay attention to the cultivation of quantitative financial talents to enhance the core competitiveness of China's financial industry.
2.2 the impact of RMB appreciation on China's insurance industry
Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, there was basically no exchange rate risk in the international insurance industry, and more attention was paid to the insurance risks such as product pricing risk, investment risk and operational risk, while countries paid little attention to the foreign exchange risk of the insurance industry. After the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, the exchange rate risk of insurance began to be concerned, but it still did not attract enough attention. For example, in the Core Principles and Methods of Insurance Supervision formulated by IAIS, it is considered that the main risks faced by insurance institutions include underwriting risk, operational risk, legal risk, reserve-related risk, market risk, operational risk, legal risk, institutional and group risk and credit risk. In 2005, the International Association of Actuaries (IAA) issued the Global Assessment Framework for the Solvency of Insurance Companies, which divided the risks affecting the solvency of insurance companies into underwriting, credit, market and operation. Among them, exchange rate risk is not even listed as the risk faced by the insurance industry. From the domestic situation, before the reform of China's foreign exchange management system, the state implemented a fixed exchange rate system, and all foreign exchange risks were borne by the state. Insurance companies do not need or have tools to manage foreign exchange risks.
Since July 2, 2005, when the exchange rate formation mechanism was reformed in China, the RMB rose unilaterally against the US dollar for a long time, and the cumulative appreciation rate reached 17. By the end of June 2008, it was 53%. Since June 2008 1, the appreciation of RMB has reached 5% (see figure 1). The sharp fluctuation of exchange rate in the short term will inevitably have a certain impact on the insurance industry. For example, in recent years, insurance companies have conservatively estimated that they have accumulated more than $654.38+0 billion in foreign exchange assets through overseas listing financing and other channels. According to the 5% appreciation of RMB this year, the floating loss of foreign exchange assets in the insurance industry is about 4 billion yuan, which is huge and should be paid attention to.
2.2. 1 Impact of RMB appreciation on China's insurance industry
The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the insurance industry can be summarized into three categories: depreciation effect, substitution effect and wealth effect. Exchange rate fluctuations have a direct impact on the assets and management of insurance companies through these three ways.
The depreciation effect refers to the depreciation of foreign currency, which directly leads to the shrinkage of the existing foreign exchange assets of insurance companies, thus causing losses to foreign exchange holders (see Figure 2). Where Af stands for assets denominated in foreign currency, E stands for the exchange rate under direct quotation, and the decline of E stands for the appreciation of local currency. A stands for the local currency price of foreign currency assets, so A=Af? E. When the local currency appreciates, that is, E decreases and A decreases.
Substitution effect means that due to the fluctuation of exchange rate between different currencies, the insured will tend to use the currency with appreciation trend to insure, reducing the insurance demand for the currency with depreciation trend, thus avoiding exchange rate risk or obtaining additional benefits from currency appreciation. Assuming that Pf is the premium income of foreign exchange insurance products and P is the premium income of local currency, in the long run, the local currency tends to appreciate, and the changes of premium income between local currency and foreign currency are shown in Figure 3.
Wealth effect refers to the promotion of insurance companies' business due to the rise of domestic asset prices caused by the appreciation of local currency, mainly the promotion of investment and underwriting business. In the investment business of insurance companies, companies can gain investment income in the process of rising asset prices. E → va → I, where va stands for asset price and I stands for investment income. In the underwriting business, on the one hand, the company's investment performance has improved, and the return on investment of products has increased. The resulting demonstration effect will attract more consumers to buy insurance, that is, I ↑→ ROI → P ↑, and ROI stands for return on investment. On the other hand, due to the increase in the value of assets held by policyholders, the consumption expenditure on insurance in their asset allocation will increase, and the underwriting business scale of insurance companies will also expand accordingly, that is, E → VA → W → P, where W stands for personal wealth.
In addition, exchange rate fluctuations will also have a great impact on a country's economy. In general, there is a positive correlation between the national economy and insurance business, and exchange rate fluctuations can indirectly affect the insurance industry through economic changes.
2.2.2 Impact of RMB appreciation on underwriting business of insurance industry
Due to long-term undervaluation, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has shown a relatively strong appreciation trend since the reform. Recently, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has intensified the concerns of countries around the world about major reserve currencies, and the RMB exchange rate is under pressure to appreciate further. By analyzing the transmission mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations, we can analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on the insurance industry. At present, its influence is mainly reflected in underwriting business and capital utilization business.
The impact of RMB appreciation on underwriting business can be divided into the direct impact of premium income fluctuation caused by currency change and the indirect impact of premium income fluctuation caused by real economy or financial market fluctuation caused by currency change.
From the direct impact, there are mainly the following points:
First, the actual RMB premium income of insurance companies' foreign currency policies has shrunk. When foreign currency insurance policies pay foreign currency premiums, the real value decreases due to the appreciation of RMB.
Second, it has an uncertain impact on the premium income of insurance companies' foreign currency policies.
Affected by the appreciation of RMB, the cost of RMB insured in foreign currency is reduced, and it is useful to insure in foreign currency. At the same time, policies insured in foreign currency are also paid in the foreign currency designated by the applicant. Under the trend of RMB appreciation, once the insurance is out of danger or the payment is due, the foreign currency indemnity received by the beneficiary may suffer exchange losses. For the sake of preserving value or gaining currency appreciation, policyholders tend to use RMB for insurance. Based on two factors, the impact of RMB income on foreign currency policy premium income is uncertain.
Third, it has some influence on the international reinsurance of domestic insurance institutions, but it is not clear. Affected by the appreciation of RMB, the RMB cost of domestic insurance companies in international reinsurance has decreased, and their willingness to use international reinsurance has increased. But at the same time, once an accident occurs, the foreign currency indemnity recovered from the international market will shrink accordingly. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the impact of RMB appreciation on international reinsurance of domestic insurance companies.
From the indirect impact, it includes two aspects:
Fourth, the income from export credit insurance business declined. On the one hand, after the appreciation of RMB, the price of export commodities denominated in foreign currency rose, and the export enterprises faced the pressure of weakening competitiveness, and the total export volume decreased. In this case, the demand for export credit insurance will be weakened. On the other hand, affected by the appreciation of RMB, the operating pressure of export enterprises has increased, and for the sake of reducing costs, they also tend to reduce insurance costs. Generally speaking, export credit insurance business
Face unfavorable factors.
Fifth, the investment product business achieved rapid development. Usually, after a country's currency appreciates, some funds will enter the currency appreciation country through various channels to obtain the appreciation income of the country's currency, thus causing the asset price of the host country to rise. On the one hand, in the process of rising prices, the investment business of insurance companies can obtain higher returns, which will correspondingly increase the benefits brought by investment products to policyholders and enhance the attractiveness of investment products. On the other hand, people realize the appreciation of personal wealth in the process of rising asset prices, which will also increase the expenditure of insurance consumption accordingly. Therefore, in the case of currency appreciation, the business scale of investment products will greatly increase.
2.2.3 Impact of RMB appreciation on the use of insurance funds
The impact of RMB appreciation on the use of insurance funds can also be summarized as the direct impact of currency fluctuations on foreign currency assets held by insurance companies and the indirect impact of currency fluctuations on insurance investment business.
Direct impact:
Foreign currency assets held by insurance companies have shrunk. The foreign currency assets of insurance companies mainly come from three channels: funds raised by overseas listing of domestic insurance companies, foreign exchange capital of joint ventures and foreign exchange policy income. Take the foreign exchange capital of the joint venture company as an example. According to the current foreign exchange management regulations, the foreign exchange capital of the joint venture company must be declared and exchanged as needed, and cannot be exchanged at one time. In the case of RMB appreciation, the foreign exchange capital of the joint venture company may continue to shrink.
Indirect effects include two aspects:
On the one hand, due to the appreciation of the local currency, the domestic asset price rises, and the investment income of insurance companies in the domestic local currency rises. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005, the domestic stock market and property market have maintained a long period of prosperity. In 2007, the investment business of insurance companies also achieved the highest return on investment in this round of price increases.
On the other hand, the impulse of insurance companies to invest abroad has weakened. At present, insurance companies can't invest in financial derivatives, so they lack foreign exchange hedging tools. Theoretically, under the uncertainty of overseas investment income, the overseas investment income may be lower than the exchange loss caused by RMB appreciation. In order to avoid this risk, insurance companies will reduce the scale of overseas investment. However, in practice, some companies may increase the scale of foreign investment due to the enhancement of capital strength of domestic investment income and the reduction of RMB cost of overseas investment.
2.3 the impact of RMB appreciation on the securities market
2.3. 1 The overall impact of RMB appreciation on the securities market
The impact of RMB appreciation on the securities market can be described from the following aspects. In the short and medium term, the appreciation of RMB has a positive effect on the securities market and can effectively attract foreign speculative capital to enter the stock market; In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will have a negative impact on the real economy as a whole, and ultimately affect the securities market, which will lead to a sharp decline in the stock index. Facts have proved that when a currency becomes a financial hotspot in the world, it will certainly attract a large number of international hot money to speculate and make the market fluctuate greatly. Although China's RMB is still not freely convertible and China's capital account has not been liberalized, in fact, domestic and foreign capital pipelines are gradually connected. From the perspective of capital market, QFII in H-share, B-share and A-share markets are all channels connecting domestic and foreign markets. From the perspective of foreign exchange market, the developed underground foreign exchange market along the coast has become an important "supplement" to China's regular foreign exchange market. At present, the RMB has appreciated slightly, but investors' expectations for its future appreciation are still strong. In any financial market, when a price trend is formed, it is difficult to reverse it unless it encounters a strong external shock. Since 2003, international "hot money" has entered China's domestic market. According to statistics, about $654.38+000 billion of "hot money" is speculating on RMB appreciation. What attracts these speculative capitals most is the securities market, which is easy to realize and has high liquidity, because foreign capital entering China's capital market is unlikely to invest in industry, because its goal is the difference between RMB exchange rate appreciation. At the same time, with the implementation of QFII policy, the door for foreign capital to enter China stock market has been opened, and the reason for attracting foreign capital to enter China stock market is largely the expectation of RMB appreciation.
2.3.2 The structural impact of RMB appreciation on the securities market
The influence of (1) on A shares.
The appreciation of RMB may become an unstable factor affecting the stock market. There is a relationship between exchange rate and stock market: local currency appreciation-hot money inflow-stock market rise-attracting more hot money inflow-increasing appreciation pressure, which means that RMB appreciation may be a continuous process. Generally speaking, RMB appreciation is beneficial to the A-share market in the short to medium term. Incremental funds entering A shares will buy A shares in large quantities for arbitrage, and the capital-driven stock market will repeat itself. Stock prices and stock indexes may rise unilaterally under the impetus of a large amount of funds. But in the long run, after RMB appreciation becomes a reality, all kinds of "hot money" are likely to withdraw from the securities market after realizing the income, which will bring about the decline of the securities market. The changes in the securities market are also fluctuating because of the different ways and times of withdrawal of various main funds. China's stock market has been depressed recently, and there is no sign of a large influx of foreign capital. Because RMB is not freely convertible under capital account at present, although international speculative funds can penetrate into domestic capital market through current account, it is still quite difficult to try to speculate on financial products in domestic capital market. Therefore, the current cross-border capital flow has not had a significant impact on A shares. However, from the development trend, international capital will definitely bet on A shares. The recent sluggish performance of the A-share market may mean that the opportunity for international capital to build A-shares is maturing. However, based on the characteristics of speculative capital "fast forward and fast out", once the expectation of RMB appreciation weakens, it will cause the withdrawal of funds, which will have a great impact on the securities market, increase the risk of market fluctuation and bring great pressure to the regulatory authorities.
(2) Impact on H shares.
The expected appreciation of RMB has the most obvious impact on H shares. H shares are RMB assets priced in Hong Kong dollars. The appreciation of RMB means the appreciation of H shares, and the potential benefits brought by the appreciation of RMB will become an important force to stimulate the market. At present, H-share companies have excellent assets, steady operation, rapid growth in performance and outstanding advantages. In addition, compared with the corresponding A-share price level, the H-share market still has expectations, and the impact of appreciation expectations will also help its market interpretation. Because Hong Kong's financial market is very stable, pursues a free economy and has no foreign exchange control, it is the main battlefield of the hot money game of RMB appreciation. With the expectation of RMB appreciation strengthened, a large amount of overseas hot money flowed into Hong Kong, which made the bank balance in Hong Kong rise continuously, lowered the interest rate of time deposits, drove local funds into the stock market, and the stock price soared. Based on the above factors, once there is any trouble in the value of RMB, H shares will be the first to become the vane of RMB appreciation, and then passed on to the mainland stock market.
(3) the impact on B shares.
After the appreciation of RMB, the assets of B-share listed companies will increase, which is beneficial to their business and profits. Long-term appreciation of RMB and expected return of B-share investment will be two options for investors to play B-share market in the future. However, due to the small scale and poor liquidity of China's B-share market, the impact of RMB appreciation on B-shares is limited, and the increase of B-shares may not be as good as that of H-shares. At the same time, the possible differentiation in the B-share market cannot be ignored. Shenzhen B-share market is adjacent to Hong Kong, and there are frequent short-term capital activities abroad, so the capital supply will be more abundant than that in Shanghai. Although the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar at present, with the appreciation of the RMB, there is great uncertainty in the exchange rate system of Hong Kong and the trend of the value of the Hong Kong dollar, so holding the Hong Kong dollar will inevitably suffer as much as holding the US dollar. However, the weakening of the US dollar has shrunk the market value of Shanghai B-shares, and investors are facing investment losses caused by systemic exchange rate risks, which has caused great psychological anxiety to Shanghai B-share investors. Since the B-share market was opened to domestic residents in February, 20001,domestic investors have gradually become important investors in the B-share market. The potential appreciation of RMB makes most investors unwilling to invest in the B-share market at the current price to avoid the loss of their foreign exchange assets caused by the appreciation of RMB. Due to the lack of financial support, the overall weakness of B shares in Shanghai stock market will be inevitable. In this way, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, due to the psychological factors of domestic investors and the different expectations of Hong Kong dollars and US dollars, the trend of B shares in Shenzhen and Shanghai will continue.
2.4 the impact of RMB appreciation on prices and employment
The impact of RMB appreciation on residents is mainly reflected in the impact on prices and employment. In the short term, after the appreciation of RMB, the competitiveness of China's commodity exports weakened, and the number of export products decreased. Under the condition that the production capacity of export enterprises remains unchanged, the products originally intended to be exported are hoarded in the domestic market, which leads to the situation that the supply of goods exceeds demand and the price falls in the domestic market. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi also directly reflects the decline in the prices of imported goods. In view of this, domestic similar or similar goods also adjust their prices to increase their competitiveness, which leads to the decline of domestic commodity prices. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will make domestic commodity prices fall, which may further lead to potential deflationary effects. In the long run, the increase of China's import demand leads to the change of the relationship between supply and demand in the international market, which makes the international market price rise, and then drives the domestic price in China to rise. At present, influenced by market supply, international prices and other factors, China's prices have been rising moderately, and deflation is unlikely. In terms of employment, after the appreciation of RMB, on the one hand, the export of labor services decreased, and domestic labor resources increased. On the other hand, in the short term, the supply of goods in the domestic market exceeds demand, and enterprises may lay off employees and reduce the scale of enterprises to maintain their competitiveness, thus gaining an advantage. Therefore, the domestic employment situation is grim, especially in labor-intensive industries, and the unemployment situation is even more severe. Fortunately, at present, the appreciation of RMB in China is not large, the employment situation is generally good, and the urban unemployment level is controlled within 4-6%.