The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 4 1.0%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 59.0%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate at the current level by July is 24.2%, the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 5 1.6%, and the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 24.2%.

The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% in July is 26.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25%-5.50% is 73.2%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged before September is 22.0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 64.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 13.2%.

Raising interest rates is a tight monetary policy, and the Fed responds to the current economy by raising interest rates. Generally, raising interest rates can increase bank interest, thus reducing the money supply, and the dollar will appreciate. In addition, higher interest rates will have an impact on the economy. For example, after the appreciation of the dollar, the price of gold will fall, and everyone is more willing to hold the dollar; The currencies of other countries will depreciate and so on.

The impact of the Fed's interest rate hike

First, the Fed's continued interest rate hike will definitely restrain the economy, and both investment and consumption, as well as import and export, will be restrained from growing. The American economy may continue to decline, and the pressure will be even greater.

Second, I think the crisis of American banking will continue, which may further trigger systemic risks.

Third, for countries with low foreign exchange reserves, high foreign debt and single industrial structure, the Fed's interest rate hike may lead to bankruptcy of these countries.

Public opinion believes that the US government and regulatory authorities are now facing a paradox, that is, continuing to raise interest rates may aggravate the liquidity crisis of banks, while suspending interest rate hikes cannot effectively curb inflation.