165438+ 10, from the introduction of ten measures to expand domestic demand, to the reaffirmation of the control target of maintaining growth by the Central Economic Work Conference, and to the promulgation of "Thirty Opinions on Current Finance Promoting Economic Development" by the General Office of the State Council, more and more detailed control measures have gradually outlined the path of a new round of macro-control-not only to maintain the current economic growth, but also to seize the rare opportunity to optimize.
Maintaining growth, promoting consumption and adjusting structure: active fiscal policy releases energy
Since the fourth quarter, industrial production, export, fiscal revenue, CPI, PPI and other economic indicators have dropped significantly, indicating that the downward pressure on China's economy has further emerged. However, many experts said that with the gradual implementation of a series of expansionary control policies, China's economic growth rate is expected to gradually pick up after bottoming out in the first quarter of next year.
Wang Qing, chief China economist of Morgan Stanley, said that from June 1 to June 1 1, the investment in urban fixed assets in China increased by 26.8% year-on-year. Although this growth rate is slightly lower than that in the previous ten months, it is still at a high level, indicating that the expanding investment scale under the proactive fiscal policy will gradually take effect and provide impetus for economic growth.
Facing the challenges at home and abroad, the resumption of China's active fiscal policy has become the biggest highlight of the new round of macro-control, which means that the fiscal policy with "immediate" effect will release more and more energy in macro-control.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said that a proactive fiscal policy will be implemented next year. In addition to expanding the scale of investment, structural tax cuts will be implemented to reduce the tax burden through tax cuts, tax rebates or deductions, and promote corporate investment and household consumption. Further optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, increase investment in people's livelihood, and support scientific and technological innovation, energy conservation and emission reduction, advanced equipment manufacturing, service industry, small and medium-sized enterprises, and major reforms. To promote the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development mode.
Kang Jia, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the so-called structural tax reduction is a tax reform plan with "increase and decrease and structural adjustment". Specifically, according to the needs of the development of China's economic situation, the tax policy should be adjusted accordingly. While optimizing the tax structure, we can levy some new taxes and reduce the tax burden of some taxes, thus stimulating the economy and expanding investment and domestic demand.
Recently, the country announced that it would promote "home appliances to the countryside" and "agricultural machinery to the countryside" throughout the country, which sent a positive signal to expand rural consumption. According to the Ministry of Finance, a proactive fiscal policy should, on the one hand, adjust the pattern of national income distribution to increase the income of urban and rural residents, and on the other hand, promote consumption in key areas such as rural areas, housing, automobiles, service industries and tourism through tax incentives.
Next June, 5438+ 10, the transformation of value-added tax, and the timely introduction of refined oil price tax reform show that this is a good opportunity for China to adjust its economic structure. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said that the next step will be to vigorously promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, base on current investment, and promote enterprises to accelerate equipment renewal and technological transformation to maintain the sustainability of economic development.
Fan Jianping, chief economist and director of the economic forecasting department of the State Information Center, said that expanding domestic demand is not only an emergency strategy for China's economy to cope with the crisis, but also a long-term strategy for China's future development. Behind it is a major shift in the mode of economic development from investment and export to domestic demand. He predicted that by 20 10, with the full release of the effect of the government's policy to stimulate domestic demand, the economic development pattern mainly driven by domestic demand will take shape initially, and China's economy will start a new round of development.
Release liquidity and increase credit: moderately loose monetary policy promotes economic growth
Finance is the core of modern economy. If China's economy is compared to a big ship, money is the "water carrying the boat", and the function of finance is to make the "water of funds" flow. A series of financial measures taken by the central government are aimed at releasing this kind of "water" from the "dam" of the central bank and commercial banks.
From the moderately loose monetary policy put forward by the state, to the nine financial measures put forward by the the State Council executive meeting at the beginning of the month, and then to the 30 suggestions on further refining finance to promote economic development, China is introducing a series of financial policies to ensure growth, and by promoting the reasonable and stable growth of the total amount of money and credit, it will provide a vast water area for economic ships.
At present, the international financial crisis is gradually spreading to the real economy, and the world is on the verge of recession, so it is difficult for corporate financing to become a global problem. In order to solve the liquidity problem, the state has put forward a moderately loose monetary policy to promote the steady growth of money and credit. The central bank even cut interest rates four times in three months, lowered the deposit reserve ratio three times, and cancelled the control of the total credit scale of commercial banks.
Wang Qing believes that the effect of releasing liquidity in China is emerging. According to the financial data of the central bank in June 165438+ 10, the loans in June 165438+ 10 increased substantially year-on-year. But at the same time, the decline in the growth rate of money supply has not been effectively alleviated, and the phenomenon of banks' reluctance to lend is still serious. Relevant signs show that although the water of funds has flowed into commercial banks, it has not yet entered the production of enterprises well.
Based on this situation, the Thirty Opinions on Finance Promoting Economic Development specifically deployed nine aspects, including monetary policy, credit services, capital market, insurance, financing channels, foreign exchange management, financial services, fiscal and taxation support, and reform risks. Among them, promoting the steady growth of money and credit and meeting reasonable capital demand rank first among all measures.
Zhang, vice-president of China Institute of International Economics and vice-president of Chengdu University, believes that these 30 opinions are a more targeted embodiment of implementing the current macro-control policies, in which the annual growth target of broad money supply (M2) 17% is the highest growth target since the Asian financial crisis, which reflects the characteristics of the current counter-cyclical adjustment of macro-control. "If this goal can be achieved, it is of great significance to expand liquidity and expand the issuance of base currency in a timely manner, which is of great significance to industrial growth, employment security and stable economic development."
In addition, in view of the phenomenon of banks' reluctance to lend, Article 30 of the Financial Opinions clearly proposes to encourage banking financial institutions to provide credit support to enterprises with good fundamentals, good credit records, competitiveness, market and orders but temporary operational or financial difficulties under the premise of controllable risks.
Zhang said that these 30 opinions also reflect another feature of current macro-control, that is, fiscal policy and monetary policy are better coordinated with industrial policy. The key to ensuring growth is to protect industry. China is in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, and industrial growth is crucial to economic growth and employment increase. At present, the policy of leaning towards enterprises is to ensure the development of enterprises.
"For banks, maintaining growth is the overall situation. If banks balk at this risk, it will affect industrial growth, thus making the problem of economic downturn more serious, and the bank's own stock loans will also be greatly affected. Finally, the harm will naturally include the banking industry. Therefore, for banks, it is also necessary to expand credit supply so that they can keep themselves while maintaining economic growth. " Guo Tianyong, director of China Banking Research Center of Central University of Finance and Economics, said.
Stock market, property market and automobile market: expanding regulatory policy tools to promote stable market development
Whether it is the Central Economic Work Conference or the 30 opinions on promoting economic development by finance, the three major markets that people care about have been highly concerned. How to boost market confidence and promote the stable and healthy development of these three markets will become an important part of economic work next year.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market and the real estate market, strengthen the basic system construction of the capital market, improve the quality and governance level of listed companies, strengthen the supervision of the capital market, and enhance investor confidence. The meeting emphasized the improvement of residents' property income and listed housing and automobile consumption as key areas for expanding consumption next year.
The "Thirty Opinions on Finance Promoting Economic Development" further clarifies that credit policies will be introduced to support residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied houses and improved ordinary self-occupied houses for the first time, support the development of automobile consumption credit business, and broaden the financing channels of auto finance companies.
Analysts believe that this is undoubtedly a major positive for the three markets, which will effectively enhance people's confidence in the market and stabilize expectations. The implementation of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has created a good policy environment for the market to pick up.
Cheng, chief strategist of CITIC Securities, predicts that in the second quarter of next year, the role of policies in the real economy will gradually emerge, and the stabilization of fundamental expectations will gradually replace simple emotional stimulation and become a new powerful boosting force for the stock market.
For the capital-intensive real estate industry, the policy tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference has created favorable conditions for it to get out of the downturn. Analysts believe that moderately loose monetary policy can effectively "transfuse blood" for real estate development enterprises, maintain the capital chain of enterprises, prevent house prices from "overshooting" and stabilize the expectations of buyers as soon as possible. In addition to the expansion of credit scale, the foreseeable interest rate cut in the future may save the capital cost of real estate enterprises, which will become an important condition for stabilizing housing prices and buyers' expectations.
In addition, interest rate cuts will bring down the cost of buying a house, leading to a continuous rise in transaction volume. The data shows that on the second day after the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference, the daily average number of pre-sale units in Shanghai increased by 35% compared with 165438+ 10, and increased by 56% compared with 65438+ 10. Although the winter sales in Beijing will decline due to seasonal factors, the average daily sales in June 5438+February is only 25% lower than that in1October 165438+, but still 20% higher than that in1October 10.
The automobile market has become the main consumption point of residents and is expected to benefit from the new round of regulation. Although affected by the slowdown in economic growth, the development of the automobile industry next year is not optimistic under the pressure of shrinking asset prices and slowing income growth. But in the long run, the economic policy of expanding domestic demand and the moderately loose monetary policy are all favorable factors for the automobile industry.
Answer supplement
What monetary policy? Significantly cut interest rates, reduce housing down payment, help trapped enterprises to raise funds, and issue shopping vouchers. ...