Qilu Securities Circular Download: http://www. stock123.tk/qiluzquan.htm Qilu Securities Circular v8.0 Download: http://www.stock123.tk/qiluzquangv8.0.htm Download: http://www.htm. Kloc-0/23. tk/ Qilu qiluzquangv8.0.htm Qilu Securities Straight Flush Download: http://www. stock 123. tk/ Qilu QuangThuashun.htm On the one hand, the amount of funds due this week is as high as 274 billion yuan, the second highest in the year, and the tools available to the central bank are limited. At present, the spread between the primary and secondary markets of central bank bills in March has reached as high as 30BP, and the willingness of institutions to take coupons from the primary market is obviously insufficient. Although the market demand for central bank bills has been relatively strong in the past three years, the central bank will have scruples when using this deeply locked liquidity tool in the context of "hot money" flowing out for three consecutive months. On the other hand, the quarter-end assessment and the two-day reserve factor once again make the banking system short of funds, so it is necessary for the central bank to plan ahead and release water in advance to ensure the funds. In terms of interest rate, the winning interest rate of the central bank bill and the repurchase on that day continued to be the same as that of the previous period. Market participants pointed out that although the market had strong expectations that CPI would hit a new high in August, and the increase in the spread between the primary and secondary markets of central bank bills in March made it difficult to issue a large number of bills, the central bank finally chose "reducing the volume and stabilizing the price", indicating that the central bank had obvious intention to guide short-term market interest rates and manage inflation expectations by stabilizing the issue interest rate. The issuance rate of central bank bills was flat, and the net capital was put in for two consecutive weeks, successfully guiding the interest rate in the money market to gradually decline. On September 9th, the weighted interest rates of overnight and 7-day pledged repo dropped to 1.64 12% and 2.2827%, respectively, which were lower than the highs of 1.9 1bp and 90.93BP in September. Among them, the overnight variety fell for the sixth consecutive day, and the 7-day variety remained below 2.3% for the fourth consecutive day. "Hot money" may return. With the approach of the two festivals and the attack of the end-of-season assessment factors, as well as the continuous expansion of the bond market, the funds that have just returned to calm will undoubtedly face the test again. However, although there is a new upward pressure on the interest rate of funds, in view of the increased attractiveness of RMB assets, it is expected that "hot money" will flow in again, and the central bank has flexible and skilled monetary control capabilities, and the moderate easing of market funds in the future is still guaranteed. From the perspective of "hot money", the data show that since May this year, the "hot money" estimated by "new foreign exchange holdings -FDI- trade surplus" has experienced negative growth for three consecutive months, reflecting the international capital outflow that once brought a lot of liquidity to China's market. In fact, this is also one of the important reasons for the serious drought of market funds in May and June. As for the outflow of hot money that lasts for several months, some analysts pointed out that with the acceleration of RMB internationalization, the attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, so the outflow of hot money will not last long. Moreover, it is worth noting that the motivation for the re-inflow of hot money is gradually accumulating. Zheshang Securities analysts said that on the one hand, the inflow of hot money is positively related to the expectation of RMB appreciation, while the NDF quotation shows that the expectation of RMB appreciation still exists; On the other hand, the stock market began to rebound in early July, and the effect of making money initially appeared. More importantly, the market's expectation of China's economy is improving, and the view that "the economy has bottomed out" has begun to appear. Therefore, the improvement of the attractiveness of RMB assets will become the main driving force for capital inflows, and the inflow of hot money is expected to continue to increase in the future, and the increase in foreign exchange holdings will become a trend. Judging from the central bank's regulation, First Venture said that maintaining moderate liquidity management will be the main content of the open market in the process of economic growth decline. In view of the central bank's increasingly flexible and skillful use of open market tools, the overall funds will not be in short supply for a long time.

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