Since May, 2002, the dual effects of the weak US dollar and strong domestic economic growth have led to the appreciation of the Australian dollar. On June 24th, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar reached US$ 65,438 +0: 0.5795, the highest point since the previous 2 1 month. At the end of July, the fluctuation of the global economy caused investors to panic. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar again, the Australian dollar suffered a lot of selling, falling rapidly from the high price, and once fell to 1: 0.526, the lowest level in the previous five months. In early September, the Australian dollar returned to the price of 0.54, and rose to the price of 1: 0.55 in June. Since June 5438+ 10, 2003, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar has risen sharply. 65438+1October 17, and the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar in new york foreign exchange market is 1: 0.592. 65438+1On October 24th, the Australian dollar exchange rate rose to 1: 0.5937 again, the highest point since August 2000. From June 65438 to April, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar continued to climb gradually. The average price of 10 in October was 1: 0.5884, which rose to 1: 0.6054 in February, stabilized at 1: 0.6036 in March and rose to 1: 0.6230 in April. Judging from the current trend, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar will maintain an upward trend. Some experts predict that the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar will reach 1: 0.67 to 1: 0.7 this year.
The fluctuation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar has two characteristics: First, the fluctuation cycle of the Australian dollar against the US dollar almost came to an end in more than three years from 1 in 2000 to May 2003. It dropped from 1: 0.67 to 1: 0.48, and then climbed to 1: 0.65 again. Although the Australian dollar fluctuates greatly against the US dollar, it fluctuates less against other major currencies. At present, the average exchange rate of the Australian dollar against other currencies has only increased by 8%.
The main reasons for the sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar include: First, the continued weakness of the US dollar. The end of the Iraq war in a short time did not make the dollar stronger. On the contrary, the United States began to experience deflation and the dollar weakened further. Second, the prospect of global economic growth is still uncertain, and there are many unstable factors affecting economic growth, so the US economy cannot play the role of "locomotive". Australia's economy is the best among OECD countries. Investors choose the Australian dollar as a "safe haven" for temporary deposit of funds. Third, the official interest rate difference between Australia and the United States is very large. The official interest rate in Australia is 4.75%, and the official interest rate in the United States is 1.25%. The market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the existing interest rate unchanged, which will further widen the interest rate difference between the two countries.