At present, the pressure of rising prices has not been fundamentally alleviated, but judging from the trend of domestic agricultural products prices, international commodity prices, international currency liquidity after the subprime mortgage crisis and the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, China has a more favorable domestic and international environment to control price increases, and the policy effect of price control will be further manifested in 2009. At the same time, the subprime mortgage crisis is increasingly damaging the real economy of all countries in the world. The plight of China enterprises has been transmitted from the export sector to the domestic demand industry, from the coastal areas to the mainland, and from small and medium-sized enterprises to large enterprises. The growth rate of some regions and industries has fallen too fast, and the risk of excessive economic decline is gradually increasing. It is suggested that "maintaining steady and rapid economic development and promoting the transformation and upgrading of economic structure" should be the primary policy goal of macro-control in 2009. The reason why "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" should be listed as the primary policy objectives is because the total contradiction and structural contradiction are equally prominent in China's current economic operation. To solve the current economic difficulties, we not only need to moderately relax the aggregate policy, but more importantly, only through the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure can we rebuild the new vitality of China's economic growth and regain the new international competitiveness of China's economy. The juxtaposition of "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" as the primary policy objectives is conducive to further unifying the thoughts and actions of the whole party and the whole country in dealing with complex situations, better guiding the development enthusiasm of governments and enterprises at all levels to the implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, and preventing them from taking the old road of extensive development in order to "maintain growth".
(2) Implement a proactive fiscal policy and give more play to the role of the market in allocating resources.
It is suggested to implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2009. Different from the proactive fiscal policy adopted in response to the Asian financial crisis, this time it is necessary not only to expand the government's investment in construction, but also to allocate resources by the government to concentrate on major events, and more importantly, to promote economic restructuring and upgrading through market allocation of resources. Reduce the cost of enterprises and the burden of residents by reducing taxes and fees, and enhance the enthusiasm of enterprises for investment and consumption.
We should increase financial support for structural transformation, and propose to fully implement the reform of value-added tax transformation throughout the country in 2009 to promote the upgrading of enterprise equipment. In the process of transforming productive value-added tax into consumption value-added tax, it will stimulate the increase of investment, facilitate the formation of capital and promote economic growth. According to our calculation with CGE model, the nominal total investment growth rate increased by 2.25 percentage points and the actual total investment increased by 1. 16 percentage points in the first year of the implementation of consumption-based value-added tax, which showed a trend of expanding investment year by year. The increase of investment growth rate will lead to the improvement of the whole economic output and economic benefits, which will increase the nominal GDP growth rate by 65,438 0.22 percentage points and the real GDP growth rate by 0.86 percentage points. This influence will basically remain stable in the next decade. The model simulation results show that in the first year of the implementation of consumption-based value-added tax, the employed labor force increased by about 2 million people. The transformation of value-added tax has two effects on employment. On the one hand, it increases the capital investment of enterprises and reduces the demand for labor; On the other hand, it will increase the output of enterprises and drive the increase of labor employment. The results show that the role of output growth in promoting employment is greater than that of investment growth in replacing labor force. It is necessary to establish a mechanism for the steady growth of financial investment in science and technology, increase support for scientific research in public welfare research institutions and public welfare industries, and support the revitalization of major domestic equipment manufacturing industries and the development of national strategic industries. Carry out pilot projects of venture capital for enterprise innovation to create a good policy environment for enterprise technological innovation.
It is suggested that in 2009, the central government will issue long-term construction bonds or expand the investment scale within the budget to 200 billion yuan, which will be mainly used for post-disaster reconstruction, national key infrastructure construction projects, energy conservation and emission reduction, structural upgrading and other industrial development projects, as well as supporting "three rural" projects. The leading role of national debt investment should be expanded by means of supporting loans from banks and absorbing private capital.
(3) Implement a flexible and steady monetary policy and enhance financial support for economic growth.
In 2009, there was great uncertainty about the currency liquidity in China. It is possible that due to the further deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, the expectations of domestic financial institutions on the domestic economic situation and corporate profit prospects have deteriorated, and the phenomenon of "sparing loans" has generally appeared. At the same time, the massive withdrawal of international "hot money" led to a sharp decline in the trading volume of China's credit market, capital market and money market, which suddenly changed from excess liquidity to insufficient liquidity, resulting in a serious shortage of funds for production and operation activities of enterprises; It may also be that China's economic performance is obviously better than that of other countries, so international "hot money" continues to flow into China in large quantities, continuing the passive money supply situation that has existed in China in recent years, resulting in liquidity in the banking system's surplus. In the face of uncertainty, it is not appropriate to tighten or expand monetary policy. Therefore, it is suggested to implement a flexible and prudent monetary policy in 2009. Monetary authorities should flexibly adjust the statutory deposit reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates according to the actual situation of currency liquidity changes, control the growth rate of broad money supply at 16% ~ 17%, cancel the management of credit line, focus on strengthening the guidance of credit structure, and guide the capital investment structure while attaching importance to SME loans.
Increase government investment in affordable housing and stabilize the real estate market.
In the past few years, the price of real estate rose too fast, which exceeded the affordability of urban residents. Adjustment is inevitable. The regulation of the real estate market should be oriented to improving the supply structure and meeting the demand for self-occupation, which should not only promote the rational return of housing prices, but also prevent the excessive adjustment of the market caused by the superposition of multiple unfavorable factors. Improve the supply structure, increase the supply of low-rent housing, affordable housing and ordinary housing land, and increase the supply of affordable housing and ordinary housing. Large and medium-sized cities should expand government investment in affordable housing and improve the housing security system. Financial institutions should carry out risk assessment on real estate investment projects under construction, ensure normal loans for ordinary housing, affordable housing and other real estate projects, stabilize the scale of real estate investment, ensure the normal construction and completion of real estate investment projects under construction, and prevent large-scale "uncompleted residential flats" due to the break of capital chain. It is necessary to allow listed real estate companies and other high-quality real estate enterprises to raise funds through the corporate bond market and encourage mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry. The tax increase on residential transactions introduced in the early stage has increased the burden on buyers and should be cancelled in time. It is suggested that the deed tax, stamp duty and land value-added tax for residents to buy the first self-occupied housing should be reduced, and the preferential loan interest rate for residents to buy the first self-occupied housing should be given to attract residents to actively enter the market when the house price falls back to a reasonable level.
(5) Improve the consumption policy and further tap the growth potential of consumption.
To deepen the Party's understanding of the importance of expanding consumption, the new growth point of China's economy in the future will inevitably be the consumption demand of 654.38+300 million people. The most important aspect of economic restructuring is that the demand structure has shifted from relying mainly on external demand to relying mainly on consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents. We should start with macro income distribution and do everything possible to increase the income of urban and rural residents. It is suggested that the deduction standard of wage income and expenses should be raised to 3000 yuan, and the dividends distributed by listed companies in the securities market should be exempted from capital gains tax. Other taxes and fees levied on urban and rural residents should be comprehensively cleaned up, and they should be exempted if they can, and reduced if they can, so as to reduce the tax burden of low-income people and increase the actual disposable income of residents. Fiscal expenditure should be tilted towards urban and rural residents, and governments at all levels should increase spending on public health care, compulsory education, old-age care, affordable housing, rural roads, urban and rural consumption infrastructure, and effectively alleviate the worries of urban and rural residents. Implement a proactive employment policy, expand urban and rural employment, implement the relevant policies of the Regulations on the Implementation of the Labor Contract Law, and raise the minimum wage standards in various places according to changes in the price level. Increase investment in rural commercial and trade circulation system and cultural service facilities, and improve rural consumption environment. Improve the consumption tax system and guide residents to spend reasonably. Vigorously develop tourism, culture, sports and other service consumption, and cultivate new consumption hotspots.
(6) Improve foreign trade policies to help export-oriented enterprises tide over the difficulties.
It is suggested to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, weaken the expectation of RMB appreciation, eliminate the exchange rate transmission mechanism of the subprime mortgage crisis to China's exports, and prevent the exchange rate from becoming a policy tool for the United States to pass on the crisis. After the subprime mortgage crisis worsens, there will be more trade barriers in developed countries in the future, trade protection measures will be used more frequently, and trade frictions between China and foreign countries will further increase. Therefore, China government and enterprises should take active measures to solve possible disputes in foreign trade in a pragmatic and effective way. If necessary, it can also unite with other relevant countries to jointly resist the possibility of developed countries transferring the crisis to the international community through trade protection under the WTO framework. It can refine the different technical content and added value content of labor-intensive products, and further improve the export tax rebate rate of textile light industry encouraged products. Focus on supporting the export of self-owned brand products and high-tech value-added products, increase the export tax rebate rate of high-tech mechanical and electrical products, increase credit support for foreign trade enterprises, and help enterprises accelerate the establishment and improvement of independent international marketing networks and after-sales service systems; It is necessary to give certain financial and technical support to small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises and help them tide over the difficulties through technological upgrading. We will continue to strictly control the export of "two high-tech and one capital" products such as grain, fertilizer, steel, coal and coke. Efforts will be made to expand the import of important resources, advanced technology and equipment and key parts.
(7) Seize the favorable opportunity to rationalize the prices of resources and energy.
At present, the rising pressure of domestic agricultural products prices has gradually eased, and the prices of international commodities such as oil have fallen back in an all-round way, which provides a favorable opportunity for China to straighten out the prices of resources and energy and reform the formation mechanism of resources and energy prices. We should treat both the symptoms and root causes, focus on the root cause, and make up our minds to start the reform of the price formation mechanism of refined oil in a timely manner, accelerate the pace of electricity price reform, and promote the formation of a reasonable electricity price mechanism. We mainly use economic means to solve the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the current prices of electric coal, refined oil and heating, do a good job in ensuring the normal order of production and life from the supply side. It is necessary to further strengthen power demand side management and curb unreasonable demand. Reform the system of resource taxes and fees, improve the system of paid use of resources and the compensation mechanism of ecological environment.
(eight) the rational use of foreign exchange resources, the integration of international resources for China's expansion of domestic demand.
China is rich in foreign exchange reserves, but the per capita natural resources are relatively insufficient, and many resources are highly dependent on foreign countries. In the early stage, China was often in a passive position in the pricing power of international products. The global asset price adjustment triggered by the financial crisis has just provided an opportunity for China to integrate. In the future, China will need a lot of resources to expand domestic demand. However, the developed countries injected unlimited monetary liquidity into the financial market, which made it possible for China's foreign exchange assets to depreciate for a long time. We must seize the opportunity to convert more foreign exchange monetary assets into strategic resource assets. By purchasing the shares of international enterprises with oil and mineral resources and even gaining relative control rights, we can improve the reliability of China's resource guarantee, enhance China's right to speak on the international pricing of important resources, convert more foreign exchange monetary assets into physical assets, and provide long-term resource supply guarantee for China's expansion of domestic demand.