According to data, my country’s legal currency, the RMB, is becoming more and more popular in the international market and has now become a pivotal presence in the currency field. In recent years, many countries in Asia have used the RMB as a transaction currency. , currency influence increases directly. Some time ago, some professionals pointed out that the RMB will become the world's third largest reserve currency after the US dollar and the pound in 2030, with a bright future. However, based on an objective analysis of the current situation, there is still a certain pressure for RMB appreciation.

Analysis of the RMB

According to an analysis report by Goldman Sachs Group, the total reserves of the RMB in central banks around the world will exceed 6% within five years. Even reaching 7%. By then, it means that the RMB will be widely circulated around the world. Its analysts also speculate that there are currently only two major reserve currencies in the world, namely the US dollar and the British pound. It is estimated that by 2030, the RMB may become the world's third largest reserve currency. With a large reserve currency, the income may reach a peak, which will bring great returns to those countries.

The RMB faces pressure and motivation to appreciate

Due to the ravages of the new coronavirus epidemic, in order to alleviate the economic crisis caused by the epidemic in the United States, the Biden administration printed a large amount of currency and then decentralized it to society and the financial market. , resulting in a large amount of U.S. dollars circulating in the market, which has had a negative impact on my country's foreign exchange. In order to stabilize the exchange rate, the central bank has repeatedly taken control of the exchange rate, raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve by more than 2 points, and froze the amount of U.S. dollar foreign exchange flowing outside as high as 200 yuan. billion, even so, the international market is still flooded with U.S. dollars, which invisibly puts pressure on the appreciation of the RMB.

Although the large amount of U.S. dollars has put pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, these pressures are only temporary at the moment. They are both pressure and motivation. Due to the endless printing of U.S. dollars by the Biden administration, in the long run, not only will the U.S. dollar Depreciation will also slow down the development of the U.S. financial market and make the United States bear more international debt and economic losses.

Many countries have also foreseen the consequences of depreciation caused by the large-scale printing of US dollars, and have begun to sell US dollars to choose the more stable RMB. Currently, many countries’ central banks are continuously reducing US dollar reserves. In just four quarters The global total volume of the U.S. dollar fell to 59%, the lowest total volume in 25 years. Opposite to the U.S. dollar is the RMB, which has always been stable and highly profitable. While the world is promoting close economic cooperation, The RMB has also begun to be recognized by more and more countries, and more and more countries have begun to use the RMB as a foreign exchange currency for reserves.

In addition, some economists pointed out that the prospects for RMB appreciation in the second half of this year are not optimistic, and the oscillating appreciation will be close to 6.3. If the Fed pulls policy back to conventional levels, there will be less to gain between the dollar and the yuan. The opening of China's capitalist market has also improved the index of the world capital market, and RMB assets are not related to new national assets, so the RMB will be more stable and have greater potential for appreciation in the future.

The appreciation of the RMB will enhance our purchasing power and will also increase the value of our assets. However, it is not good for the export of some commodities, because the appreciation of the RMB will make our products look more expensive and easier. Being replaced by the same commodity exported by other countries, thus affecting the competitiveness and economic benefits of our country's export commodities. Although the appreciation of the RMB is a matter of time, we cannot allow it to appreciate. The central bank will adjust and control its unfavorable appreciation. , enabling it to achieve a more stable appreciation environment.

Economists from some banks said that in the second half of this year, the appreciation pressure of the RMB will still be relatively large, and the oscillatory appreciation will reach 6.3. If the Fed normalizes policy, the gains between the dollar and the yuan will become smaller. The opening up of China's capitalism has also improved the index of the world's capital market. Moreover, RMB assets have no characteristics related to new national assets, so the RMB will be more stable and have greater potential for appreciation in the future.

The appreciation of the RMB will enhance our purchasing power and will also increase the value of our assets. However, it is not good for the export of some goods because the appreciation of the RMB will make our goods look more expensive and easier. Being replaced by the same commodity exported by other countries, thereby affecting the competitiveness and economic benefits of our country's export commodities.

It is only a matter of time before the RMB appreciates, but we cannot allow it to appreciate, so our country’s central bank will adjust and control its unfavorable appreciation to achieve a more stable appreciation environment.