At present, there is a view at home and abroad that if the RMB appreciates, China's huge foreign exchange reserves will suffer huge losses. How much the exchange rate appreciates, how much the corresponding foreign exchange reserves will lose. However, experts believe that if foreign exchange reserves are converted into RMB, foreign exchange reserves will indeed suffer losses due to the appreciation of RMB. But this is not the case if it is not converted into RMB. Theoretically, since the foreign exchange reserve itself was purchased in RMB, it has already been invested in RMB. If the foreign exchange reserve is converted into RMB again, it will be put into RMB for the second time, and the foreign exchange reserve will not be reduced.

From a broader perspective, foreign exchange reserves are strategic resources owned and available by the state, and also reflect the national strength. The appreciation of RMB will cause losses to foreign exchange reserves, but if domestic RMB financial assets, national wealth and current GDP are calculated in US dollars and international purchasing power, there will be corresponding appreciation, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is still very small compared with these assets and wealth. Therefore, even if RMB appreciates and foreign exchange reserves suffer losses, the gains of the whole country will outweigh the losses. In fact, even if foreign exchange reserves and exports are considered together, since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the gains from the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate far outweigh the losses.

From the use point of view, foreign exchange reserves are mainly used to buy overseas equipment, technology, resources, intellectual property rights, equity and so on. If the prices of these things do not rise in dollar terms, their purchasing power will not decline; Only when the prices of these purchases rise will the actual purchasing power of foreign exchange reserves decline. In other words, the loss of foreign exchange reserves depends on the prices of countries holding foreign exchange currencies, the prices of resources and the international prices of the objects they want to buy, and has little to do with the appreciation of RMB. Generally speaking, prices in all countries are rising. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the decline in the actual purchasing power of foreign exchange reserves is an insoluble problem, and the loss of foreign exchange reserves cannot be calculated in this way. Just like taking China's salary, prices go up and purchasing power goes down, so you can't calculate the loss.

However, the calculation of profit and loss of purchasing financial assets is more complicated. The continuous appreciation of the euro since 2003 has also triggered many discussions on the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves. Some people think that if the dollar depreciates, the foreign exchange reserves of the dollar will be lost, while others think that the euro has depreciated recently. Actually, you can't look at things like this.

First, the international currency itself is constantly fluctuating, and the short-term (real-time A-share /H-share market) appreciation and depreciation are constantly changing. Therefore, as an investment in foreign exchange reserves, it is normal that it is a loss or a gain, a market risk and a risk return. Short-term depreciation, but what if it is a long-term investment? It's still uncertain. In addition, losses, as long as they are not realized, are on the books, not actual. Just like the price of the stock held falls, as long as the stock is not sold, it is not a real loss. The price increase has not been realized, nor is it a real profit.

From the market itself, it is often difficult to adjust the stock of foreign exchange reserve assets, and the market itself will have some constraints and even strong reactions. When a large number of dollar bonds are sold, the dollar itself will fall, and those who sell bonds will suffer huge losses. A bigger question is, who can take over the sale of huge dollar bonds in the short term? Is there such a huge supply and liquidity guarantee for buying euros? Can it be so convenient to invest in any market? These have great practical problems. In fact, if we study the monetary system of the international settlement system, we can find that the dollar still occupies a dominant position and absolute advantage, and giving up the dollar means losing interests. People's hatred of the United States is often mixed with resentment of dollar finance, but who will benefit if a monetary system collapses? The bursting of the 200 1 US stock bubble and the dollar turmoil after the "9. 1 1" incident, even the euro countries do not want to see this situation, and are trying their best to maintain the stability of the dollar. In the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the dollar did not depreciate, but appreciated. This shows the world's dependence and helplessness on the dollar.