As an important strategic resource related to the national economy and people's livelihood, oil has always been one of the important factors affecting the economic development of all countries and even the world. Especially today, the world economy is in the recovery stage of economic adjustment, and the transformation and renewal of economic and industrial structures in various countries have further expanded the demand for international oil. The rapid economic development and economic upgrading cycle in some emerging market countries and regions have increased the demand for petroleum energy resources. This shows the importance of oil prices. If the oil price is too high, it will promote the increase of production cost and price and directly restrict the speed of economic development; On the other hand, if the oil price is too low, the foreign exchange income of oil exporting countries will be greatly reduced, thus damaging the economic interests of oil exporting countries; Therefore, in the medium term, how to maintain the international oil price at a reasonable level is a major issue that the international community needs to properly solve.

1. Uncertainty of world economic growth. The continuous rise of international oil prices is an uncertain factor for the further growth of the world economy. According to the International Monetary Fund's estimation, if the international oil price rises by $5 per barrel, the world economic growth rate will decrease by 0.3 percentage points 1 year. The fluctuation of oil production and price is a cyclical problem, which will affect the economic growth of different countries. When the international oil price is at a high level, it will lead to oil overproduction and oversupply, and then the price will plummet, leading to oil production contraction and oil price increase. This has been proved by history. Therefore, the economic growth of the countries concerned will inevitably be affected by this oil production-price cycle. In contrast, oil importing countries will be more vulnerable to this economic cycle fluctuation than exporting countries. At present, the demand for oil in the economic recovery of industrialized countries is also increasing. Oil is the most important import item of developed countries and the biggest deficit item in foreign trade. The fluctuation of international oil prices will have the most direct impact on the euro zone countries that rely heavily on imports. A very important reason for the depreciation of the euro lies in the pressure of rising inflation in the euro zone brought about by the rise of international oil prices. Even if the problem of rising prices is temporarily alleviated because of the increase of oil exporting countries, it is impossible to change this basic trend.

From the perspective of developing countries, the economic recovery in Asia has been relatively good in recent years, which has expanded the demand for oil supply. During the period of 1990- 1999, the increase in oil demand in East Asian countries accounted for about 80% of the increase in global oil demand, except for oil-producing countries in West Asia. If the oil price remains high, it will exert great pressure on Asian countries' fiscal revenue and expenditure, inflation, international trade revenue and expenditure and foreign debt repayment ability, and affect the good momentum of Asian economic growth. North America, Europe and Asia are the three largest oil markets in the world, among which Asia's oil demand is the fastest growing, but Asia's oil output as a major oil producer has basically not increased, which has greatly increased the oil imports of Asian countries from the Middle East. In addition, the political and economic turmoil in major oil-producing developing countries and regions also directly affects the fluctuation and rise of oil prices. For example, political problems in Venezuela have seriously reduced oil production, equipment aging and oil production reduction caused by Saudi economy, and destructive oil resources in Iraq are all potential oil price fluctuations. Among the oil-producing countries, some developing countries or countries with economies in transition, such as Russia, rely heavily on oil revenues to boost their economies and are greatly affected by oil price fluctuations. The price increase makes them happy, and the price reduction makes them sad. The rise of international oil prices since 2003 has greatly restricted the overall recovery and growth level of the world economy. As the tension in Iraq deteriorates again due to sudden violence, the high international oil price may become an obstacle to the recovery of the world economy.

2. The inevitability of structural adjustment of energy demand. With the economic globalization, the rapid development of productive forces, the rapid enhancement of national economic strength and the improvement of economic growth quality, the demand for energy in various countries is increasing day by day. In 2004, the world oil demand increased by 6.5438+650 million barrels per day, and the daily oil consumption reached 79.9 million barrels. At the same time, the international energy demand structure is undergoing fundamental changes, the world crude oil stocks are decreasing, and the comprehensive problems of resources, technology and equipment for oil exploitation are outstanding; In addition, the decline in coal demand and the rapid increase in fuel and natural gas demand have made the contradiction between international fuel supply and demand more and more prominent; With the increase of high-tech content in the new economy, international oil production, transportation and storage have also undergone high-tech transformation, and the combination of alternative oil and crude oil resources has gradually emerged. The development of natural gas, hydrogen and other energy sources has also affected the international oil supply and demand pattern. As the world economy is facing the transition from the traditional economy to the new economy, especially the structural transition from export-driven to investment-driven, the expansion of domestic demand in various countries not only increases the investment demand, but also promotes the sharp rise of international raw material prices, and the rise of raw materials such as oil, steel and coal has produced a joint reaction. In the era of global commodity flow, there are transportation bottlenecks and storage technology problems in the international oil market. High transportation costs, crowded ports and roads, and rising storage costs have all stimulated the further rise of oil prices to some extent.

3. Coordination of international economic relations. The oil problem has multi-level complexity in international economic relations, such as the contradiction between OPEC and non-OPEC, the contradiction between oil supply and demand, and then extends to the complex coordination and cooperation between big countries and powerful countries, rich countries and rich countries, big countries and small countries, rich countries and poor countries. The uncertain fluctuation of international oil price interferes with the recovery of the world economy and increases the difficulty of economic policy coordination in major countries and regions. The changes in the relationship between oil supply and demand in international economic relations caused by international oil problems mainly focus on financial security and economic interests. The oil issue has become an important bargaining chip for the strengthening and loosening, reorganization and clutch of state relations, among which the prominent influencing factors are the economic interests, political hegemony, military power and its unique position in the financial market of the United States. The oil issue is the main line of American foreign political, trade, economic and diplomatic relations, and it is also one of the main fronts of economic and financial competition and contest between the United States, Europe and Japan. Statistics show that 25% of the total oil imported by the United States comes from the Middle East, 60% from Europe and 80% from Japan. The competition among the three major interest groups in the United States, Europe and Japan stems from oil and complains about oil.

From the perspective of resource regions, Gulf oil is the main support point for oil consumption in industrialized countries. Therefore, international forces on the world stage are keeping a close eye on the huge oil reserves in the Gulf region. It is not difficult to find that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and the Gulf War continues. Gulf oil is one of the focuses of world economic and political issues, and its rise and fall indicates the development trend of the international situation. After the end of the American war against Iraq, the international oil prospect will be more unpredictable, and the impact of the war on the oil market will exceed expectations. In 2004, political factors will play a leading role in oil prices. With the weakening of political issues and the strengthening of accumulation, oil price fluctuations will continue to expand.

4. The difference between globalization and regionalization. Since the advent of the euro, the rejection and attack on the euro has been the main theme of American international financial strategy, and the tangible and intangible contest has made the euro face great pressure and risks. The fundamental difference between America and Europe lies in the game of globalization and regionalization. The United States and Japan are admirers of economic globalization, because their economic scale, market share and development level are dominant, which makes it difficult for them to integrate with weak developing countries or emerging market economies in the region. They are afraid of paying the "price" in regionalization, so they are bound to show their advantages and consolidate their interests by globalization. Europe is a developed economy, with relatively balanced politics, economy, finance and trade, and has the inherent advantage of regionalization. 1 The realization of the EU's eastward expansion 10 in May, 2000 has made the integration of old and new Europe form a stronger economic alliance, surpassing the United States in economy, population and market. The differences in the interests of globalization and regionalization between the United States, Japan and Europe, as well as the unbalanced and balanced situation, are mainly due to the different concepts of economic globalization and European economic regionalization. The differences in economic and financial concepts between the United States, Europe and Japan are also reflected in the price competition in financial markets, such as exchange rate, stock price, gold price or oil price. In the international oil competition, the three major economies or monetary bodies will inevitably increase the competition of international resource products with their own ideas of economic globalization or regionalization. It is an important strategic intention of the United States to attack the original oil supply and demand pattern with the wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, supplemented by currency competition. From Japan's point of view, in order to make up for its own oil demand, it has strengthened economic and trade cooperation with Asian and Middle Eastern countries, improved and even strengthened its relations with Russia, and its trend is also worth pondering and studying.