Basic knowledge:
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced an increase in trading margin requirements on Wednesday night, which dealt a heavy blow to market participants. The new regulations will take effect at the close of trading on Thursday. At the same time, the employment data in the United States is better than expected. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped by 7,000 to 395,000, with an expected 400,000. It hit a four-month low, and US stocks continued to rise after opening higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones index once rose more than 500 points and closed up more than 400 points. The market's worries about economic growth prospects have eased. Yesterday, the gold price in the Asia-Pacific plate remained at a high level and fluctuated to a record high of 18 14.70, and then fluctuated downwards. Before the US session, it traded above 1750 and fell to the line of 1732 near the lowest closing price, and finally fluctuated lower, falling by more than 40 dollars.
Despite the correction of gold price, in the previous three trading days, after Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of US debt, gold jumped by 8%, and in the past 1 year, the price of gold rose as high as 46%. In the context of the economic slowdown in the United States and the escalating crisis in Europe, the high risk aversion has pushed up gold.
In addition, on the morning of 12, the French financial regulator AMF announced that 1 1 naked short selling of French financial and insurance stocks 15 days was prohibited, including Societe Generale, a French financial company facing capital risks.
Chai Lu analysis:
Yesterday, spot gold hit a record high of 18 15 in early trading, and then fluctuated downward for most of the time, maintaining the first-line trading of 1750- 1770. At the end of Pan Mei, it was back-tested for 4 hours, and the MA30 moving average supported 1732, and finally closed at 1753, and the daily line closed at the long-lost Yinxian.
Although the daily price of gold stopped rising, the overall price of gold was still above the moving average system. The short-term adjustment has not shaken the upward trend of the main force. Need to pay attention to the MA5- 10 moving average below to support attack and defense.
Four hours later, it rebounded quickly after the first-line support of 1732 was back-measured at Meipanwei Road yesterday, and rose to around 1760 again in early trading today, showing that the multi-party downward support is still stubborn. After 4 hours of backtesting, it has the intention of stopping falling and rebounding. At present, it is under pressure in the middle rail of Brin. With the continuation of the upward channel of Brin, the price of gold is expected to stabilize the short-term pressure 1762 and return to the multi-party shock range again.
In summary, the international financial situation is turbulent recently, and risk events occur almost every day. The European and American debt problems have touched the nerves of global traders. Gold rose like a rainbow, rising more than 8% in just three trading days this week. The amplitude is obviously larger than in the past, and the fluctuation is intensified. In the real operation, investors are advised not to blindly follow up, after all, the background is still good for gold. Especially friends in technical schools, don't think it is a change in the direction of the trend just because you find a small short signal on the technical side. Therefore, in operation, the author still suggests maintaining the operating concept of doing more with the trend and buying on dips.
London gold:
Intraday band strategy:
1. See 1750-52 long, stop loss 1745, short-term target 1758-62, broken position 1768- 1772.
2. Stand firm 1762, you can chase more light positions, stop loss 1757, and target 1768-72.
3. See 1772 empty order for the first time in the day, stop loss 1778, target 1768-65-62.
4. At the beginning 1732-30, more than one intervention, stop loss 1727, target 1735-40-48.
5. Recently, the price of gold fluctuates violently, so it is possible to enlarge the stop loss in a light position in operation to avoid the occurrence of sweeping losses in the shock market. On the main force, you can find key support levels to buy on dips.
Tiantongjin:
1. See short at 360.50, stop loss at 358.20 and target at 362-365.
2. Fall back to the 356 line to go long, stop loss 354, target 360-362-365.
Tiantongyin:
Spot silver opened at 8 105 yesterday, and the highest test in the Asian plate was 82 17. The US market once fell back to 78 10, and finally closed moderately below 8007, with a decrease of 1.53%. The daily line received a long shadow line.
The daily line shows that the silver price is currently fluctuating in the densely populated area of the moving average, and the overall fluctuation is relatively flat. Short-term downward support 7750-7650. Critical upward pressure 8080-8200. MACD dead fork kinetic energy is gradually exhausted, and RSI remains neutral. Generally speaking, judging that silver has the meaning of bottom energy storage and upward attack.
In 4 hours, it gradually fell back from the high point of 8745 on August 4, forming a downward adjustment trend of A-B-CB-C. At present, the price of silver has entered the bottom of C wave, which is expected to end the adjustment pattern. The indicators in the attached figure show neutrality, and in the medium term, we pay attention to the first-line attack and defense of 8 180-8200.
Overall: The recent trend of silver is relatively independent, and the external market is blood shed, but silver turns a deaf ear to things outside the window. The author thinks that the rise of silver is only a matter of time. At present, the United States is weak, the credit rating is lowered, the US debt is increasing, QE3 is expected to rise, and European debt is troubled. The rise of global risk events has given certain support to the precious metal market, and there is still considerable room for the silver market to rise.