Keywords: coffee, export: international competitiveness,
Coffee is an important export product of Indonesia and the third largest foreign exchange source of Indonesia after palm oil and natural rubber. At present, Indonesia is the fourth largest coffee producer and exporter in the world, and has an important strategic position in the world coffee trade. Indonesia's coffee exports account for 6.4% of the global coffee. The main destinations of Indonesian coffee exports are the United States, the European Union (mainly Germany and Italy) and Asian countries (mainly Japan, Malaysia and Singapore). In recent years, the lifestyle of China society has changed, and the younger generation in China likes to drink coffee more and more, which leads to an increasing demand for coffee. The annual growth rate of per capita coffee consumption is between 15% and 30%. China's domestic coffee production bases are mainly distributed in Hainan and Yunnan, and the coffee produced in Yunnan accounts for more than 90% of China's total coffee production. However, the coffee produced in these areas cannot meet the rapid growth of domestic coffee demand, and most of our coffee depends on imports. At present, besides Viet Nam, Indonesia is also the main source country of coffee imported from China. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to strengthen the research on Indonesian coffee exports to China.
First, the analysis of Indonesia's coffee export trade with China
The consumption of coffee in China is growing rapidly, and the quantity of domestic coffee is far from meeting the demand, so it needs to be imported in large quantities from abroad. Indonesia is the fourth largest coffee producer and exporter in the world, and coffee export is one of Indonesia's largest sources of foreign exchange. Indonesia is also one of the main sources of Chinese coffee imports. Therefore, China and Indonesia have great potential to develop trade in coffee products. China market has become an important target market for Indonesian coffee export. See table 1 for Indonesia's coffee export trade. (Table 1)
Table 1 counts the export trade of Indonesian coffee to China from 20 10 to 20 19. According to the data in the analysis table, Indonesia's coffee exports to China show a fluctuating development trend. From 20 10 to 20 13, the export of coffee showed an increasing trend, from 3 194.30 tons of 20 13 to 13,103.50086.000000000606 After 20 17 years, Indonesia's coffee export showed a fluctuating upward trend. As the global temperature rose and the productivity of coffee decreased, Indonesia's coffee production decreased a lot in 20 17 years, which greatly affected the domestic supply and export of Indonesian coffee.
Judging from the proportion of Indonesia's coffee exports to China in Indonesia's total coffee exports, from 20 10 to 20 17, the proportion basically fluctuated and rose from 0.66% of 20 10 to 20 17 and 20 18 ~ 20655.
Second, the competitiveness analysis of Indonesian coffee export to China market
The commodity export competitiveness of a country or industry can be analyzed by various methods or indicators. Among them, the common indicators are dominant comparative advantage index (RCA) and export market share index (MS). Using these two indicators, the competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exported to China was analyzed. In addition, as raw coffee beans, roasted coffee and coffee products are the most important coffee varieties imported by China from Indonesia, these three coffee varieties are taken as the main analysis varieties.
(A) comparative advantage analysis.
Ballassa(RCA, ballassa, 1965) is the most commonly used performance evaluation index when studying international competition at the product and industry level, and its calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula, RCAij stands for balasa, where country J exports I products to country C; Xiji represents the export value of product I from country J to country C; Xj represents the total export of all products from country J to country C; Xiw stands for the total export value of global I products; Xw stands for the total export value of world products.
If RCA> 1, it shows that country J has a strong export competitive advantage in I products; If RCA
Data source: calculated according to the un commerce database, the same below.
As can be seen from Table 2, among all kinds of coffee products exported from Indonesia to China, the RCA index of roasted coffee is below 0.03 every year, which shows that Indonesian roasted coffee is not competitive in China market. The RCA indexes of Indonesian green coffee beans in China market are all higher than 1 3, 20 14 and 20 15, indicating that green coffee beans have certain competitive advantages in several years. The RCA indexes of Indonesian coffee products in China market are 20 10 and 20 1 1, both of which are less than 1, and their competitiveness is weak. However, with the passage of time, RCA index keeps rising, reaching 7.5 1 in 20 15 years, which shows that Indonesia has a strong market in Chinese coffee products. (Table 2)
(2) Export market share.
Export market share refers to the proportion of a country's total export of a product to the total export of that product in the world. The higher the export share of a product, the stronger the international competitiveness of this product. For Indonesian coffee exports to China, China's market share can be expressed by MSij.
Among them, Xij represents the total amount of I products exported by country J to country M, and Mim represents the total amount of I products imported by country M. The export market share index can reflect the weight of a country's products in the import market, so it can better explain the ability of products to enter and explore the international market.
As can be seen from Table 3, Indonesia's share in the roasted coffee market in China has been very small, and it shows a downward trend. By 20 19, the market share is only 0. 15%. Judging from the raw coffee bean market in China, the market share of Indonesian raw coffee beans remained stable and rose steadily, reaching 36. 17% in 20 17 years. From the market share of coffee products, the market share is relatively stable, with an overall upward trend, from 1.54% in 20 10 to 5.89% in 20 19. (Table 3)
Three. Suggestions on Promoting Indonesia's Coffee Export Trade with China
(1) Indonesia should improve the efficiency and quantity of coffee production.
In recent years, due to the global temperature rise, the growth environment of Indonesian coffee has changed, which has affected the output of Indonesian coffee and led to the continuous decline of Indonesian coffee exports. In order to solve this problem, the Indonesian government should choose the best coffee producing area according to the climate change in Indonesia, and monitor the temperature and precipitation in the coffee growing area, so as to find the problem as soon as possible, make preparations as early as possible, prevent the adverse impact of climate change on coffee production, and minimize the impact of climate change on coffee production.
In addition, the government gives policy and financial support to coffee producers to help them cultivate new coffee varieties and provide them with a better environment for research and development of new coffee varieties. This can increase the planting area and area of coffee, enhance the production capacity of coffee beans, increase the output of coffee beans, and thus increase the export volume of Indonesian coffee.
(2) Improve the scientific and technological content of coffee production and optimize the structure of coffee export products.
In the process of coffee planting, coffee production enterprises should use modern science and technology to improve coffee varieties and enhance the adaptability of coffee trees to the environment. At the same time, by applying fertilizer and relying on modern science and technology, the yield and production efficiency of coffee per unit area will be improved, and the intensive, large-scale and market-oriented development of coffee production will be realized, and the coffee production capacity and production level will be improved, laying the foundation for greatly increasing the coffee supply in Indonesia's export market. In addition, coffee production enterprises should do a good job in protecting coffee beans during the process of picking and transporting them, so as to avoid the rot of coffee beans caused by inadequate protection or picking and transporting. Modern refrigeration technology can be used to store coffee beans in cold storage, prevent them from rotting during transportation, and maximize the supply capacity of raw materials for coffee production.
With the advantage of close economic and trade exchanges with China, Indonesia can make use of the abundant capital, technology and management advantages of China enterprises to help Indonesia's own coffee production enterprises improve their technical and management capabilities, cultivate Indonesia's own coffee production talent advantages, enhance the technical development level of Indonesian enterprises, improve the quality and taste of Indonesian coffee production, improve the development mode of coffee production and management, optimize the export structure of Indonesian coffee products, and improve the market profitability of coffee production enterprises.
(3) Deepen the depth and breadth of economic and trade cooperation between China and Indonesia, and promote the construction of a free trade zone between China and Indonesia.
We should deepen the depth and breadth of China-Indonesia economic and trade cooperation, establish good political mutual trust and economic reciprocity, and facilitate economic and trade exchanges between the two countries. Promote the construction of a free trade zone between China and Indonesia. After the establishment of the Free Trade Zone, the import and export tariffs of merchandise trade between the two countries can be greatly reduced or not levied, which can effectively promote the rapid development of Indonesian coffee trade, facilitate the export of Indonesian coffee trade to China, and effectively promote the large-scale development of bilateral trade. In addition, China and Indonesia can carry out mutually beneficial cooperation in a single coffee trade, and agricultural products with comparative advantages can be taken as the main commodities for import and export. The two countries will implement zero tariffs or reduce tariffs on these commodities to realize the complementary development of bilateral trade.