As of press time, spot gold fell 0.52% to 13 17. 10 USD/oz; COMEX gold futures fell 0.50% to 13 17.4 USD/oz; The dollar index runs around the parity of 90. 1 17. Spot gold price fell 13 15. 18 USD/oz, and the USD index bottomed out at 89.902.
Wall Street is now highly sensitive to any signs of rising prices, fearing that this may lead the Fed to raise interest rates more actively. Therefore, the February consumer price data of the United States, which will be released on Tuesday (March 13), will be closely watched.
It is worth remembering that the recent stock market crash began when the employment data was released in May 438+1October, because the report showed that wages had the biggest increase in more than eight and a half years, which triggered inflation worries. The February employment report released on Friday showed that the increase of non-agricultural jobs was the highest in more than a year and a half, but the salary increase slowed down.
In June, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States increased by 2. 1% compared with the same period of last year, and increased by 0.5% compared with the previous month. If the February data shows that inflationary pressure intensifies, investors' expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates four times instead of three times this year will heat up, and the stock market may be under pressure again.
Shinichiro Kadota, senior foreign exchange strategist at Barclays, said that although investors' risk aversion has eased recently, the current dollar rally may be limited. He added: "In view of the lingering uncertainties such as US trade policy, the reasons for buying dollars at present seem limited."
Is the economy overheating? Opinions differ.
Although the increase in non-farm jobs in the United States in February far exceeded expectations, the pressure of wage increase is still not great. The speeches of several senior Fed officials highlighted the different views of policy makers. Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, called for a "regular and gradual" rate hike to avoid economic ups and downs, because the falling unemployment rate has increased the upward pressure on inflation and wages.
Chicago Fed President Evans said that the strong employment report and the good news that people are returning to the labor market cannot alleviate his anxiety about low inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali even thinks that many of his colleagues' judgments that the US economy has reached the Fed's "maximum" employment target are quite absurd. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in February last year, both he and Evans voted against it.
Therefore, money market traders continue to bet that the Fed will raise interest rates no less than three times this year, but the probability of raising interest rates four times this year is still not high, only about 25%.
US President Donald Trump said last Friday (March 9) that he held talks with Australian Prime Minister malcolm turnbull, and the two sides are trying to reach an agreement so that Australia can waive US tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Analysts predict that the tough stance of the United States on tariff issues is expected to gradually soften, which will ease market anxiety, which will be bad for gold and good for the US dollar.
Trump announced last Thursday (March 8) that he would impose tariffs of 25% and 10% on imported steel and aluminum respectively, and only exempt Mexico and Canada, which are parties to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Trump said: "Turnbull is committed to maintaining a very fair and mutually beneficial military and trade relationship between Australia and the United States. The two countries are rapidly formulating a security agreement so that we don't have to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum products on our ally Australia. " Although Australia is one of the largest iron ore suppliers in the world, it plays a very small role in global steel exports.
There is no winner in the trade war, and the dollar is doomed anyway.
There is no winner in war, which also applies to the field of international trade. The United States is the initiator of this latest battle, and the US trade and budget twin deficits make the dollar vulnerable; If things get out of hand, the Fed may cut interest rates, which also makes the dollar hard to cope with. Half of the profits of Standard & Poor's 500 companies come from overseas, and the outbreak of trade war may hurt these companies.
Many people think that the dollar may not fall as badly as it did in the steel war in 2002, because the current account deficit is small and the economic growth is strong. What about other economies? If the global economic and trade growth slows down, the currencies of small developed and open economies such as Canada, New Zealand and Australia will depreciate, and emerging markets will also suffer setbacks. The dollar will also suffer an indirect drag.
It is reported that US President Trump is preparing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the situation of the nuclear issue in Northeast Asia may be broken. US officials defended President Trump's decision to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying the move was not just a gesture, nor a gift to North Korea.
Trump agreed to accept the invitation of the North Korean leader last Thursday and meet him before the end of May. In the past few months, regional tensions have been escalating due to North Korea's missile and nuclear programs.
Trump said at an event over the weekend that his planned negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may not reach any agreement or "the greatest agreement for the world."
CIA Director Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that the United States hoped that North Korea would stop all nuclear and missile tests before the meeting. They said that the goal of the meeting is still to realize the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and Kim Jong-un also agreed to discuss this issue.
"President Trump is not putting on a show," Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday. He wants to solve the problem. " However, he added that the United States will still conduct military exercises in the region before the negotiations.
Huitong Com believes that, at least for now, the American economy has entered a moderate growth track in an all-round way. We expect that the fear of a trade war triggered by tariff issues will gradually fade away. Therefore, the main attraction of safe-haven assets to investors lies in the historic meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea.
Don't have unrealistic expectations for the "special gold club"
The time and place of the meeting have not yet been determined, but Trump's early acceptance of the invitation caused a sensation. An official of the South Korean Presidential Palace said that South Korean officials who conveyed the invitation of the DPRK to the United States will visit the leaders of China and Japan this week to update them on the talks.
For decades, North Korean leaders have been seeking face-to-face talks with the President of the United States, but they have been rejected due to human rights issues and nuclear programs. Many Democrats and Trump's * * * and party colleagues said that the United States should ask North Korea to make concessions before agreeing to talk to it.
US Democratic Senator Warren said on TV: "Before they win such an award, we should insist that they make some substantial and verifiable changes to their projects." Warren said she was worried that North Korea would use Trump.
Pompeo and Nuchin said that the United States will not give in and will continue to maintain economic sanctions and strength? I maintain the posture of putting pressure on North Korea.
They also refuted the criticism that Trump's decision to talk has raised the status of North Korean leaders on the international stage. Pompeo said: "The government has opened its eyes wide, and the pressure on North Korea will continue to rise throughout the talks."
FX678 also pointed out that the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula will remain a topic full of speculation in the gold market this year. It is completely unrealistic to expect that the historic meeting between the current leaders of the United States and North Korea can reach an agreement to completely solve the problem. The market should be prepared for repeated setbacks in negotiations, and the price of gold may return to the upward trend at any time. The market outlook does not rule out the possibility of reaching a high of 166.8+05 USD before touching.
Spot gold may drop to March 9 low 13 12.99 USD.
The analysis of double-top morphology and retracement position shows that spot gold may drop to the low of 13 12.99 USD on March 9 again. Double-top form is formed around 1366 USD. Although it has not been confirmed, this pattern indicates that spot gold may eventually fall below the low point of March 1 102+0.
The retracement analysis from 1366.07 USD to 1302.6 1 USD shows that the support level is 14.6% retracement level 13 12 USD, and the rebound caused by this water level may be/.
On the daily chart, another retracement analysis shows that the spot gold has remained below 1330 USD, which is the retracement from 1 122.35 USD to 1366.07 USD 14.6%. Spot gold may fall to 1309 USD. If it rises above 1327, it may rise to 1334.