the actual impact is not as serious as expected. At the 28 China Information Industry Economic Annual Meeting held on December 5th, all the guests from the information industry told us with detailed data and in-depth analysis that although the global financial crisis has brought or will bring immeasurable influence to China's information industry, there are also rare opportunities.
The international financial crisis is not the only reason
Before the 199s, the international electronic information industry was mainly technology-driven, and gradually changed to market-driven after the 199s. China's electronic information industry is mainly based on technology introduction, digestion and absorption, and the influence of technology-driven industrial development is even less obvious. The increasing demand of international and domestic markets has become an important driving factor for the rapid development of China's electronic information industry in recent years. At present, China has become the largest electronics manufacturing country in the world.
the stabilization of global market demand inevitably leads to the slowdown of China's information industry growth. From 1987 to 27, the sales revenue of China's electronics manufacturing industry increased from 41.1 billion yuan to 5,16.6 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 25.7%, nearly seven times. However, the growth rate in the past 21 years has obvious fluctuation, and it is currently in a period of decline. If there are no special circumstances (such as breakthroughs in new technologies, economic crisis, social unrest, etc.), China's electronics manufacturing industry will enter a period of moderate growth in the next few years, and may even experience weak negative growth in individual periods.
obviously, the growth rate of communication equipment, desktop PC, home audio-visual products, mobile communication terminals and other products has declined to varying degrees in recent years. At the same time, software, basic components, LCD, plasma TV, notebook computers and other products have maintained a relatively fast growth rate. Taking the software industry as an example, the operating income of China's software industry increased from 56 billion yuan to 583.4 billion yuan from 2 to 27, with an average annual growth rate of 34%. In the first three quarters of this year, the accumulated business income was 576.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and an increase of 9.2 percentage points over last year.
in addition to the development laws of the information industry itself, the laws of China's economic operation also affect the development of the information industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October this year, the consumer expectation index, satisfaction index and confidence index decreased by 5%, 2.6% and 4.1% respectively compared with the same period of last year, which indicates that residents are worried about future expenditure expectations and lack consumer confidence.
the decline in consumer and investment confidence will definITely affect the domestic it market. Consumer electronics products, especially household audio-visual products, are the hardest hit, followed by the computer industry. Affected by the whole machine industry, the component industry will also see a decline in growth in the next year or two. Of course, this adverse effect will improve with China's next round of economic growth.
Zhou Zixue, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: "The development law of China's electronic information industry and the fluctuation characteristics of China's economy are affecting the development speed of China's electronic information industry, and the current problems of the information industry cannot be blamed on the international financial crisis."
Seize the opportunity to meet the challenge
The traditional advantages of the development of China's electronic information industry are mainly low production costs. With the rapid development of the information industry and China's economy, some traditional advantages are gradually weakening. However, after long-term development and accumulation, China's information industry has also cultivated and formed many new development advantages. For example, a number of large enterprises with greater competitiveness have been developed; The domestic market space has expanded rapidly, and breakthroughs have been made in international market development, accumulating a lot of international business experience; Technology research and development capabilities have been continuously improved, and the awareness of standard setting has been significantly improved. These traditional advantages and new advantages will play an important role in the process of building China into an electronic power.
the financial crisis in the United States has greatly impacted the economies of developed countries, while China's monetary, banking and capital market systems are relatively independent and less affected by the crisis. At the same time, China's foreign exchange reserves reach 1.8 trillion US dollars, the annual fiscal revenue reaches 5.1 trillion yuan, and the total bank savings assets are 46 trillion yuan. The solid family background enables China to cope with this international financial crisis with ease. Thanks to this, China's electronic information industry can still develop steadily in a relatively stable domestic economic and political environment. From this perspective, the capital supply for the development of China's electronic information industry is also facing certain historical opportunities.
under the impact of the global financial crisis, the living environment of enterprises in developed countries has deteriorated sharply, and a large number of elite talents will be laid off and high-quality assets will shrink. This provides an excellent opportunity for China's powerful enterprises to carry out transnational mergers and acquisitions, technology introduction and talent introduction.
in order to reduce the impact of the international financial crisis on China, the State Council has put forward ten measures to promote economic growth, and the implementation of these ten measures will require about 4 trillion yuan of new investment by the end of 21. At the same time, lowering the deposit reserve ratio, benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans, and raising the export tax rebate rate of 3,486 commodities and the reform of value-added tax mean that enterprises have more funds and more profit margins, which can stimulate enterprises to expand investment and expand domestic market demand. The in-depth implementation of the plan of home appliances going to the countryside will stimulate the market demand for mobile phones. If computers are finally included in the plan of home appliances going to the countryside, its positive impact on the information industry will be more profound.
Guo Jianbing, deputy director of the Software Service Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: "From the situation we have mastered, the international financial crisis may also bring some rare opportunities to the development of China's software service industry." The international financial crisis has brought huge cost pressure and market pressure to European and American enterprises. In the future, more multinational enterprises will outsource their non-core business to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. This will bring more development opportunities for China to undertake offshore outsourcing business.
The plight of India's outsourcing industry has given the industry a new understanding of the huge risks of over-reliance on foreign markets, which will surely promote enterprises to attach importance to the domestic demand market and create new development space for the software service industry by vigorously developing information technology services for China's manufacturing, government, telecommunications, finance, insurance and other departments and industries.
Growth is still the main theme
Guo Jianbing thinks: "The potential adverse effects may affect the whole software service industry in the future. Although the impact of the current international financial crisis on China's software service industry has not yet appeared, we must still clearly realize that the software service industry is at the end of the financial crisis transmission chain, and it is estimated that it is 3 to 6 months behind. " In the first 1 months of 28, the accumulated revenue of China's software service industry was 115.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%. Among them, the revenue from software outsourcing services was 12.5 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 81.5%. Although the growth rate of offshore outsourcing has declined, the year-on-year growth still reached 47.2%.
Due to the global economic growth decline, some multinational companies have accelerated the market layout in China, and the R&D centers and industrial transfer tend to be obvious, and the domestic competition pattern is facing new adjustment. All these provide important opportunities for domestic machine enterprises to solve the bottleneck of industry development through mergers and acquisitions.
Gao sumei, deputy inspector of the operation monitoring and coordination bureau of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said: "in 29, it is estimated that the development of the information industry will continue to maintain a stable trend, with a growth rate of about 17%~18%, which is basically the same as that in 28, with an operating scale of 7.4 trillion yuan, including 9 billion yuan in the software industry, with a growth rate of 2% and a profit and tax increase of 1%~15%. Specific to the sales situation of some sub-industries, color TVs will increase by 18%, computers by 17%, communication equipment by 1%, communication terminals by 9%, and electronic components by 19%. "