The RMB exchange rate, which has kept a small two-way fluctuation for a long time, suddenly fluctuated sharply in the last two days. Economists in China pointed out that changes in the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad have led to a sharp drop in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, but the long-term trend will not be reversed.
After 65438+February 1 and the central parity of RMB against the US dollar fell by 156 basis points, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in the spot market inquiry system fell by nearly 500 basis points, the biggest one-day drop since the exchange rate reform in 2005. On the 2nd, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar fell again by 22 basis points, falling for the fourth consecutive trading day.
In the context of the upcoming Fifth Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the United States, the continuous decline of RMB exchange rate has aroused widespread concern. Based on this, some overseas traders judged that the RMB exchange rate would enter the downward channel, and some market participants even thought that the Bank of China might stimulate export growth and ease domestic economic pressure through RMB depreciation.
Market participants here believe that the recent trend of RMB exchange rate is the result of changes in the international market and domestic macroeconomic environment.
From the external environment, the international crude oil price dropped rapidly from the historical high of 146 USD/barrel, and fluctuated around the mark of 50 USD/barrel. The U.S. stock market plunged frequently, and the three major indexes all fell more than 7% on Monday. Data such as unemployment rate in the euro zone released by the European Union are lower than market expectations, which also makes the market expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates quickly and sharply.
In this context, the rising demand for safe haven has made international investors' willingness to hold US dollars high, thus pushing the US dollar to remain strong.
In China, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates sharply last week, with the highest drop of 1.08 percentage point. Before and after this, the central bank has continuously introduced various policies to ensure the liquidity of the money market.
Ye Yaoting, senior manager of the international business department of Bank of Communications Shanghai Branch, said that the sharp drop in RMB exchange rate may be closely related to the sharp drop in exports.
As one of the current macroeconomic indicators, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index 1 1 released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in June dropped to a record low of 38.8.
According to the survey data of more than 700 manufacturers, the downward trend of Chinese mainland's economic growth is further aggravated, and the signs of economic contraction are more obvious. Among them, the number of new export orders in 10 decreased by as much as 1 12.4%, indicating that China's export pressure is relatively high.
In addition, near the end of the year, a large number of foreign-funded enterprises established in China by European and American countries may repatriate this year's profits in advance. This will also increase the purchasing power of the US dollar in China's foreign exchange market to some extent.
According to the middle price at the end of 2007, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 6.59% this year, while the cumulative appreciation rate in the second half of the year is less than 0. 1%. According to the spot market closing price, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar even depreciated slightly in the second half of the year.
However, market participants said that a steady decline in the short term does not mean that the RMB will reverse the long-term trend.
"Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has been unilaterally appreciating against the US dollar, with a cumulative appreciation of nearly 20%. This exchange rate fluctuation is a normal rational response to the market's release of risks. " Tan Yaling, chief exchange rate analyst of Bank of China, told reporters.
Experts pointed out that since July this year, the relationship between major western currencies has also been adjusted. From the perspective of RMB formation mechanism, RMB exchange rate should refer to a basket of monetary policies. Only by adjusting the exchange rate of the US dollar can we balance the relationship between the RMB and the Euro.
China bankers also told the media a few days ago that the central bank will continue the exchange rate reform on the basis of keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable.
Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, pointed out that despite the decline in exports, China's trade surplus of 5438+00 in June still reached a new high, and it has 2 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves to support the strength of the RMB, so it is unlikely that the RMB exchange rate will continue to depreciate sharply.
"Although the current export has shrunk dramatically, once the global economy recovers to a certain extent, the comparative advantage of China's manufacturing industry will still emerge." Ye Yaoting said that in this sense, it is unlikely that the RMB will continue to depreciate in the future.