As of the close of 65438+10.9, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 6.6930, which was 1060 points higher than the official closing price of the previous trading day. The exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by nearly 500 basis points in the day, reaching 6. 15 at 6.69065. Offshore RMB rose above the 6.7 mark against the US dollar.
As an important currency in the international payment and settlement system, the sharp appreciation of RMB against the US dollar will still have a great impact on the national economy. It should be pointed out that when considering the impact of exchange rate changes on economic life, we should imagine two people sitting on the seesaw, one is always high and the other is always low. In other words, what are the benefits of a sharp appreciation of the RMB for China's economy?
First, it is beneficial to outbound consumers. The most intuitive impact of RMB appreciation is reflected in purchasing power. According to the regulations of the central bank, the amount of personal exchange for each person is 50 thousand dollars. If the exchange rate of $50,000 at the beginning of the year is 69,500, it needs 347,500 RMB. Now as long as it costs 322,500 RMB, it saves 25,000 RMB. The increased purchasing power of RMB is beneficial to overseas consumers such as Haitao people, outbound tourists and overseas students, and will certainly stimulate more consumption abroad and overseas travel.
Second, the appreciation of the renminbi is not conducive to foreign investors, and their investment returns should be deducted from the foreign exchange rate. Continue to use the analogy of 50,000 dollars. At the beginning of the year, for example, 50,000 dollars of investment income can be converted into 347,500 yuan, but now it is only 322,500 yuan, and the return on investment has shrunk. In this way, some China enterprises preparing to invest abroad will be affected to some extent. When choosing investment projects, we should try our best to prevent the risk of investment loss caused by the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Will focus on domestic investment.
Third, RMB appreciation is beneficial to inbound investors, and its principle is contrary to the above analysis of outbound investors. At the beginning of the year, for example, it took 347,500 yuan to get a profit of 50,000 dollars. Now it only needs 322,500 yuan, and the profit pressure is reduced. As a result, foreign hot money poured in on a large scale, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves kept rising. In this way, it can be predicted that many foreign investors will take advantage of the appreciation of RMB to invest in China, which will play an important role in introducing foreign capital and improving the unfavorable investment environment in China.
Fourth, the rise of RMB exchange rate has brought substantial benefits to the capital market.
1 will have a positive impact on the capital surface of the A-share market, effectively improve the capital outflow, and play a certain role in attracting international capital to China, making the capital surface of the capital market relatively loose. The continued strength of the A-share market is not unrelated to the increase in liquidity brought about by the appreciation of the RMB.
2. It will improve the environment of China's capital market, make China's capital market more attractive to domestic and foreign investors, and bring greater impetus to China's capital market. Because, if the RMB exchange rate further appreciates, overseas institutions will be more willing to allocate domestic bonds.
Since 2020, with the expectation of RMB exchange rate depreciation gradually disappearing, the investment value of A-share market has become increasingly prominent, and the tendency of overseas institutions to increase their positions in domestic stock markets has become increasingly obvious. With the weakening of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB and the continuous inflow of overseas funds, can the A-share market still enjoy this in the future? Emerging market premium? Do not rule out the possibility of increasing the allocation of A shares in the future.
Fifth, it is conducive to enhancing the ability of RMB as an international currency and making the world know more about the status and role of RMB as an international currency. Moreover, the appreciation of RMB means that China's ability to repay debts will be enhanced, and its purchasing power will be enhanced, which will enhance the world's confidence in RMB. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to the adjustment and optimization of China's economic structure. It can be predicted that RMB appreciation can objectively promote China to optimize its economic structure by vigorously developing high value-added industries for a long time. This will have a profound impact on China's macro-economy.