The first is the strength of the market and the phenomenon of plate linkage.
Generally speaking, when the market is in the stage of adjustment, rebound or horizontal consolidation, it is more likely that the breakthrough of individual stocks is a false breakthrough;
When the market is in the process of volume increase or the breakthrough stage after consolidation, the breakthrough of individual stocks is more likely to be a real breakthrough. When individual stocks break through, the plate linkage moves up at the same time, with high credibility. At this time, it is necessary to choose the stock with the largest trading volume and the biggest increase, which is often the leading stock. Finally, it depends on whether the policy and fundamentals support the upward trend of this sector.
Followed by quantity and K-line.
While the stock price hit a new high, the quantity and energy could not be effectively released. Moreover, the volume of transactions often cannot be released continuously, which is the biggest feature of false breakthroughs. Why do you want to increase the volume? Because the stock price breaks through several high points in the previous period, a large number of locked warehouse receipts will be released (the more high points in the previous period, the greater the volume required), and some profit-taking orders will lighten their positions first when they find that they have reached the dense areas in the previous period. If the volume is large, a small shadow line or a bald line is collected, indicating that the main attack is not temptation and will be sold all. Who is this financial strength if not the main force? This K-line is almost certainly the Dayang line with high turnover rate and high game.
First of all, after the stock price of the moving average system breaks upward, it will generally continue to rise along the 5-day moving average, and will also stop falling near the 5-day moving average when it returns. On the 5th, do more with the 10 moving average. However, a fake breakthrough is different. After the stock price broke through a new high, it began to shrink sideways. Investors mistakenly thought it was a retracement confirmation after the breakthrough, but the stock price fell below the 5-day moving average at the time of retracement, and then fell below the 10 moving average. When the 5th day forms a dead fork with the 10 moving average, a false breakthrough can be confirmed.
The share price diverged upward for the second time, and most of them were real breakthroughs. After the stock price rose sharply, the third and fourth upward breakthroughs of the moving average were mostly false breakthroughs. This is why technical analysts pay special attention to the first crossing (bonding) and the second crossing (bonding) of the moving average, which are called the Silver Valley and the Golden Valley, but not so much attention to the third and fourth crossing. Because there is no stock market that only rises and does not fall, hot spots need to be converted and the plates need to rotate. Long-term bull stocks are not absent, just too few.
The second is the time requirement.
Low breakthrough: the market or individual stocks continue to fall for a long time, and then sideways at the low position. As long as the low position has enough time (more than 3 months), there will be a real breakthrough when the stock price breaks through the low position for the second time. On the contrary, when the time is less than 2 months, the upward breakthrough is often a false breakthrough. This is also the requirement of morphological theory.
High-level breakthrough: high-level sideways consolidation of individual stocks. The longer the finishing time, the more effective the upward breakthrough will be.
The third is the distribution of chips. If there is a continuous and rapid concentration of chips before the breakthrough of individual stocks, and it is more rapid when the volume breaks through, it is more likely to be a real breakthrough. On the other hand, if the chips of individual stocks diverge greatly before the breakthrough, but are slightly concentrated or still divergent after the breakthrough, even if individual stocks break up with the market or plate, the increase is often not as good as the former.
For investors, for those stocks that may have false breakthroughs, we must not blindly chase them up. For investors who have already made profits, they can lighten their positions in the process of rising stock prices. When the stock price falls below the 5-day moving average, they will close their positions completely.