I personally think that the United States will do this for three reasons.
First: the needs of the blood-sucking bureau.
The United States pays attention to financial innovation and high-tech economy, which has caused a huge economic bubble in the United States. The essence of this bubble is that the United States prints US dollar bills without restraint and injects them into society through the so-called financial innovation derived from finance. At the same time, it buys a lot of world goods, flows into the world, turns junk money into material wealth, and creates world inflation. In order to fill the bubble hole created by itself, China and the European Union can only be cut short and upside down at the same time, full of ideals ... How easy is it for the United States to regain its vitality through this round of blood sucking?
Judging from the 20 15 world game, the preparations made by the United States to confuse the EU have been put in place. To put it bluntly, it is ... under the dual influence of the refugee crisis and the terrorist crisis, the United States has been able to completely confuse the EU at a "specific time node". As we all know, shortly after Russia sent troops to Syria, the "large-scale oil transportation" that Turkey has long supported the "Islamic State" was made public. Under the eyes of the United States, the "Islamic State" transported oil to Turkey on a large scale, which made Turkey grow and develop for more than a year. If it were not for Russia's strong intervention, it is estimated that this situation will continue. Is it possible to rely on the powerful military reconnaissance ability and powerful intelligence ability of the "Islamic State" to be unclear about these thorny issues between Turkey and Iraq? Is it possible?
To some extent, the United States, Turkey and the "Islamic State" are just one group. Is it strange that the "Islamic State" can transport oil without the connivance and support of the United States? With the refugee crisis, it is estimated that the EU itself can't tell how many "Islamic State" refugees have smuggled into Europe. In this way, as long as the United States needs it, the refugee crisis and the terrorist crisis in the EU will suddenly ferment. At that time, with the EU in violent turmoil, the capital within the EU will naturally flee in large quantities, thus fulfilling the United States. Seeing this, you must understand why the United States began to point more finger at China at the end of last year. After all, the layout of the United States in Europe has been completed. With this premise, the United States will naturally shift more energy to China, and then fully realize the plot to confuse us. This high-profile short-selling of RMB is undoubtedly one of the important means for the United States to confuse China.
The second reason is to prevent the RMB from successfully reaching the top!
As we all know, in the second half of last year, China accelerated the internationalization of RMB, judging from such measures as "decoupling RMB paper currency issuance mode from US dollar foreign exchange" and "successful operation of RMB cross-border payment system". Once the RMB reaches the top, coupled with China's status as the "factory of the world", the hegemony of the US dollar will definitely be seriously impacted. Although the "RMB system" relative to the "US dollar system" has not been successfully established, the impact of RMB internationalization on US dollar hegemony has begun to appear.
At present, 65,438+08% of China's global trade is directly settled in RMB, while only 2% was settled in RMB in 2065,438+00. According to the data of the central bank, since the implementation of the pilot RMB settlement of cross-border trade in April 2009, the RMB settlement business volume of cross-border trade in 20 10 was 506 1 100 million yuan and 20 10 respectively. In the first quarter of this year, the business volume reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%. In the first half of 20 15, cross-border trade in goods, trade in services and other current accounts, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment settled in RMB were 3 trillion yuan, 371.165438 million yuan,1670 million yuan and 486.6 billion yuan respectively.
What is "explosive growth"? Do you understand now? For this reason, in the face of the upper attempt of the renminbi, the United States naturally has to obstruct it. As for the United States allowing China to join the SDR currency basket, don't think that this move by the United States is "lenient" to China. In fact, China's participation in the SDR currency basket is the result of its own strength. If the United States doesn't agree, China will start a new stove. The most powerful evidence to prove this is the establishment of AIIB! To put it bluntly, the comprehensive strength of China is not what it used to be. America didn't take us to play before, so we had to draw circles in the corner. As for now, hehe, who will take who to play?
The United States wants to prevent the renminbi from succeeding in the upper position, and shorting the renminbi is undoubtedly a very good starting point. If the American calculation succeeds, China will not only suffer huge economic losses, but also the credit of RMB will plummet. This situation is obviously fatal to the establishment of the RMB system.
The third reason is to prevent China from buying foreign exchange in dollars.
With the lifting of the ban in Iran, a large number of international capital who choose to flee will most likely choose to go to Iran to "dig gold" instead of going to the United States to "take over". China's greatest threat to American vampire agents. To put it more bluntly, that is ... the United States overthrew the sheep, but it may be China that finally cashed it. In fact, the establishment of AIIB and BRICS Bank is the strongest evidence to prove this.
This will happen, or blame itself, the United States in the previous shearing process, the performance is too greedy. There is a saying: "People are afraid of being compared, and goods are afraid of being compared." With the contrast of American "black boss", China's series of actions naturally became popular. With China's "another choice", it will be difficult for the United States to "bargain-hunting" like the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis. This is definitely not good news for the blood sucking bureau in the United States. A large number of short RMB is undoubtedly an important means for the United States to deal with China's "bargain-hunting". As for the truth here, it is not complicated. After all, if we want to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate, we need the support of US dollar foreign exchange. The greater the momentum of US shorting RMB, the greater the pressure on China's foreign exchange reserves. So, can the American calculation succeed?
In my opinion, the answer is obviously no!
First, China has huge foreign exchange reserves. With the decoupling of RMB paper currency issuance mode from US dollar foreign exchange, China will undoubtedly have more autonomy in the use of US dollar foreign exchange. At that time, we will explode as many positions as possible. Secondly, the Chinese government has absolute control over the domestic banking system, and some small moves by the United States, such as encouraging China people to exchange RMB for dollars, are doomed to failure. Third, although the world economy is depressed, China still has a large foreign trade surplus. As long as the United States can't completely bring down China's real economy, then shorting the RMB by the United States is "daydreaming".
Judging from the recent "Ford moved out of Japan and increased its investment in the China market", it is extremely difficult for the United States to bring down China's real economy. At least, some American companies are tearing down the US government.
Personally, I think it is doomed for the United States to short RMB, and if the United States fails to short RMB this time, it does not rule out that the United States will be forced to "jump over the wall".
While shorting the renminbi, the Nigerian government went bankrupt. After Russia, Venezuela and Azerbaijan, Nigeria is also facing a currency collapse. These countries have one thing in common: crude oil producers. Oil prices have been running at a low level for a long time, and the wealth of these countries has been rapidly lost, and even the most basic finances cannot be maintained. This shows how miserable it is.