One of the costs of the war is the soaring domestic prices, and the prices themselves have a great impact on the commodity futures market.
In 1812, when the Spanish-American War broke out, the wholesale price index jumped from 38 to 58. After the war, the price index fell rapidly, even reaching a low of 25 in 1845.
In 1862, when the American Civil War broke out, the price index quickly soared from 32 to 70. After the reunification of the north and the south, the wholesale price index fell sharply again, reaching a low of 25 again in 1896.
In 1914, when the First World War broke out, the wholesale price index quickly jumped from 35 to 80. After the war ended in 1919, the price index fell back as quickly as the previous two times. In the 1930s, It initially fell back to around 35.
In 1941, when the Pacific War broke out, the U.S. wholesale price index quickly soared from 40 to 80. The Korean War and the Vietnam War that followed pushed the price index to 100. After the defeat in the Vietnam War, the price index fell again and the economy fell into recession.
Generally speaking, before and after the war broke out, strategic materials (copper, oil, etc.) rose for a long time, and grain (corn, soybeans, etc.) rose for a long time, and remained high for a long time after the war. or decline slowly.
Take the international copper price as an example. During World War I, the international copper price reached a historical high at the time. After the war, it slowly declined and reached a stage bottom in 1934. Then, in anticipation of World War II, it began to rise, and during the war Before the full-scale outbreak, it formed an accelerated rise in a small wave, and then continued to rise after a slight fall; after the end of the 45-year war, because World War II was far more destructive than World War I, post-war reconstruction and economic recovery required a large amount of copper, so the price of copper continued to rise after the war. .
The futures market is a financial market that trades according to an agreement and delivers on a scheduled date. The significant difference between spot and futures is that the delivery period of futures is placed in the future, while the price, quantity, method, location and other conditions of delivery and payment are stipulated in the contract by the buyer and seller at the spot. Commodities and securities can be traded in the future. Trading on the futures market. Although the contract has been signed, the goods sold by both parties may be in transit, may be in production, or may not even be put into the production process yet. The seller may or may not have goods or securities in his hands.
The cumulative trading volume of the national futures market in 2021 is approximately 7.514 billion lots, and the cumulative trading volume is approximately 581.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.13% and 32.84% respectively.
Main problems:
1. The futures market is limited in scale and listed trading varieties, which affects the overall function of the futures market.
2. There is too much speculation in the futures market, and the overall efficiency of the futures market is not high.
(1) According to the analysis of modern economics, the futures market belongs to the category of "incomplete market". In this kind of market, the level of commodity prices depends to a large extent on the expectations of buyers and sellers about future prices. Precisely because there are few varieties in the futures market, not only does a large number of companies that need to avoid price risks have no suitable place to avoid risks, but it also becomes a The root of irrational speculation.
(2) The important function of the futures market in the market economy is to enable various producers and industrial and commercial operators to avoid price risks through hedging, so as to operate with peace of mind in the spot market.
(3) Market participants are not mature enough.
3. There is a lack of risk management tools in the futures market and the mechanism needs to be improved.
4. The regulatory model does not adapt to the development trend of the futures market.
5. Futures theoretical research is not taken seriously and cannot promptly solve new and deep-seated problems encountered in practice.