Today, the exchange rate of foreign currency to Egyptian pound has been completely updated, of which the buying price stipulated by the central bank of the US dollar is 13. 10 Egyptian pound, and the selling price is 13.50 Egyptian pound, with a depreciation rate of 66%. The central bank allows the fluctuation of 10% when trading, and the bigger fluctuation needs the approval of the central bank. The floating of the Egyptian pound, which has been discussed for several weeks, has been implemented, and the wolf has really come! What does this mean?
To put it bluntly, the Egyptian government is dying! They let the black market price of exchange rate connect with the official price by "allowing the exchange rate to float freely".
At present, the official exchange rate is 8.88, which means: 1 US dollar can be converted into 8.88 Egyptian pounds. However, on the "black market", the Egyptian pound was converted from 1 USD to 16. 1 1. After announcing the "liberalization" of the exchange rate, the Egyptian pound will depreciate to 13 against the US dollar at one time, with a depreciation rate of nearly 50%!
In fact, the Egyptian government was forced to do so. There is a huge difference between the official exchange rate and the black market exchange rate. Enterprises and individuals will try their best to get cheap dollars through various channels and resell them on the black market, which is 100% profit. Egypt's foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, are only about $6,543.8+65 million, which is simply unbearable.
How did the Egyptian pound step by step towards destruction?
As we all know, Egypt has been in trouble since President Mubarak stepped down 20 1 1 years ago. In addition to capital outflows, the local currency has also depreciated sharply.
Egypt's economy has four pillars: tourism, petrochemical industry, remittance and Suez Canal toll.
In recent years, because of the unstable political situation in Egypt, tourism has been hit hard. The income from 20 15 is 6 1 billion dollars, and it is estimated that the income from 20 16 will be 3.5 billion dollars.
Coupled with the current global shipping recession, low oil prices and rising global unemployment rate, these have led to an overall decline in canal tolls, petroleum and petrochemical industries and remittances in Egypt. Therefore, there is no doubt about the economic downturn in Egypt.
More sadly, 95% of Egypt's land is desert, of which 5% can be used for agriculture and life. Egyptians also advocate many children and love life, and the birth rate is very high. In the palm-sized area of the Nile Valley, there are nearly 6,543.8+billion people to feed, which makes Egypt a country highly dependent on imports.
From commodities and medicines to fuels and machinery, we all depend on imports. Therefore, the turmoil in the international economic market may have a huge impact on Egypt.
Egypt's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced by half from $36 billion of 20 1 1, and the balance at the end of February was $ 165 billion, which can only cover import payments for more than three months. With the decline of foreign exchange reserves, Egypt has to pay for necessities such as wheat and medicine. At the beginning of this year, several wheat exports to Egypt were suspended because traders delayed receiving payment guarantees from the Egyptian government. To make matters worse, Egyptian natural gas holding company missed the contract period with two suppliers and the transaction was cancelled.
Many rounds of tragedies were staged in turn, which sounded the alarm for China!
This time, the new round of Egyptian currency crash, together with the previous painful experiences of Nigerian, Venezuelan and other countries, sounded the alarm for China! In the future, the global economic market will be in crisis!
165438+1The final answer will be revealed in the American election on October 8th! If Trump really comes to power and fulfills his promise to raise interest rates quickly and substantially, then the biggest black swan event this year will be staged, and a financial storm with rare history will strike! In this big storm, it is difficult for most countries to be immune, and some weak small countries may be hit hard.
In addition, in the early morning of February 15, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting to discuss interest rates, and the US dollar will raise interest rates for the second time. At that time, global dollars will flock to the United States at the same time, and more countries' currencies may face collapse.
Therefore, money and finance are really cruel and cold things. They will make a market, even a country, encounter an unprecedented crisis, let decades of efforts go to waste, and return to before liberation overnight!
Of course, China's national strength cannot be mentioned in the same breath as Egypt's, and China's foreign exchange reserves rank first in the world, almost 200 times that of Egypt. In the future, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may continue to depreciate slightly, but this depreciation is controllable. In a certain sense, the independent and controllable moderate depreciation of RMB will help to improve the international competitiveness of China products and benefit China's real economy! So, don't worry too much about the RMB.
However, in the battlefield of blood shed in the world economy, China should be prepared for danger in times of peace, learn from the experience of other countries, pride goes before a fall, take precautions and make all-round preparations for all kinds of responses!