Affected by many factors, China's price increase has obviously accelerated since 2007. We believe that due to the influence of ten factors, the pressure of price increase in 2008 is still relatively large. It is estimated that the CPI in 2008 will increase by about 4.5% year-on-year, showing the characteristics of high before and low after.

First, the depreciation of the US dollar induces global inflation and increases the pressure of imported inflation in China.

With the continuous spread and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States entered a new cycle of interest rate cuts, which led to the continued depreciation of the US dollar. The dollar is the core currency of the international monetary system. The United States exported a large amount of dollars to the world through the trade deficit, and became the "money supply machine" of the global currency, resulting in excess of global money supply and liquidity, which greatly improved capital liquidity. In addition, international commodities are mainly priced in US dollars, and the decline of US dollars makes the value of commodities rise relatively. It is predicted that the US dollar will remain weak in 2008, and the global prices of energy, agricultural products, raw materials and precious metals will also remain high, which will greatly impact China's price system.

Second, China's economy will continue to operate at a high level, and the benefits of enterprises will be significantly improved. Since 2003, China's economy has entered a new boom cycle, and the endogenous power of economic growth is very strong. In the first three quarters of 2007, GDP increased by 1 1.5% year-on-year, the highest since 1995. The three major demands of investment, consumption and export are warming up in an all-round way, and it is predicted that China will maintain a relatively high growth in 2008. Higher economic growth rate will stimulate the rise of total social demand and push up prices.

Third, the unemployment rate has been declining year by year, and the income of urban and rural residents has shown a rare rapid growth trend. In the first nine months of 2007, 9.2 million people were newly employed in cities and towns, accounting for 1.02% of the annual target of 9 million people. In the first three quarters of 2007, the average wage of employees in urban units nationwide was 16675 yuan, up18.8% year-on-year; The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 10346 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth was 13.2%.

Fourth, asset prices represented by the stock market and real estate continued to rise. In the third quarter of 2007, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 8.2% on average year-on-year, which was 65,438 0.9 percentage points higher than that in the second quarter. China stock market ushered in a super bull market. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes fluctuated and rose, hitting record highs. At present, it is still fluctuating at a high level above 5000 points, and the wealth effect is remarkable. Most investors have obtained rich income, and the property income of residents has increased rapidly.

Five, the pressure of high rebound in fixed asset investment. During the period of 1- 1 in 2007, the national urban fixed assets investment was 8,895.3 billion yuan, up 26.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. Moreover, the year-on-year growth rate remained at a high growth platform, and the investment rebound trend was obvious. Before the basic factors such as low interest rate, excess money and credit, substantial increase in corporate profits, high return on investment, and economic growth mainly relying on investment have not fundamentally changed, it is expected that the pressure of investment rebound in 2008 will remain relatively high.

6. The growth momentum of consumption has obviously picked up. Before 2007 10 months, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was 7,209 billion yuan, up 16. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached a new high since 1997. The growth rate of consumption increased steadily, with a growth rate of 14.9% in the first quarter, 15.8% in the second quarter and 16.8% in the third quarter.

Seventh, food prices have risen. Although China's grain increased substantially in 2004, 2005 and 2006 for three consecutive years, it is expected to achieve a small increase in 2007, but it is still a recovery growth, which has not yet reached the level of 1998 and 1999. In the past ten years, the population of China has increased by about 80 million people. In addition, with the improvement of residents' living standards, people want to improve their diet structure and need more meat, eggs, aquatic products and dairy products, which leads to the rising demand for food as raw materials, so the demand for food is rigid and stable.

Eight, the market liquidity is abundant and there is too much money and credit. After all, the price increase can be attributed to the monetary phenomenon. Due to the high current account surplus and capital account surplus, the base currency passively invested through foreign exchange holdings continues to increase, and the market funds are very abundant. 165438+at the end of 2007 10, M2 increased by 18.45% year-on-year, which was 1.5 1 percentage point higher than the end of last year, and also exceeded the target growth rate set at the beginning of the year by 2.45 percentage points. M 1 increased by 2 1.67% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4. 19 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. In addition, at the end of 1 1, the difference between RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions in China was as high as 12.43 trillion yuan, indicating that the market funds were very loose.

Nine, the surge in international crude oil prices has brought greater price pressure to China. Since 2007, the international crude oil price has soared, once reaching 100 USD/barrel. As an important strategic material, China has been strictly controlling the price of refined oil. Although the National Development and Reform Commission decided to increase the price of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene from 1 1 ton to 500 yuan in October 2007, it is still only equivalent to the international oil price of $70/barrel. Domestic and international oil prices are upside down, and domestic wholesale and retail oil prices are upside down. The reason for the sharp rise in international oil prices is not the CPI in China.

Ten, the comprehensive reform of resource prices and service prices will promote the price of related products, thus directly or indirectly promoting the overall price level in the future. It is expected that China will increase investment in energy conservation and environmental protection, continue to reform the price formation mechanism of resource products, and introduce resource price reform measures one after another, so that the price of resource products can fully reflect the scarcity of resources and the relationship between market supply and demand, thus playing an important role in the allocation of resource products.