1985- 1990 Japan's economic crisis, the United States raised interest rates on 1988+0989 1 1 times;

1995- 1997 Asian economic crisis, the United States raised interest rates seven times in 1994- 1995;

During the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006-2008, the United States raised interest rates 17 times in 2004-2006.

The cycle of American economic crisis is about 10 years. During this 10 year, the United States made the local economy extremely "prosperous" by directionally importing dollars, and then suddenly took away the liquidity of dollars, leading to the local economic crisis. Then through the influence of the United States in the world, it gradually expanded the scope of the economic crisis and formed a worldwide financial crisis!

The fundamental purpose of the American economic crisis is to cut the wool of the world!

By raising interest rates continuously, the United States drained the liquidity of world dollars, which led to the bankruptcy of a large number of countries, and then used the dollars raised by raising interest rates to buy high-quality assets of bankrupt countries at ultra-low prices.

As for the process of creating an economic crisis, it is very complicated and may involve a series of political and military actions, but its fundamental purpose is only one: to drain the liquidity of the world dollar.

In order to facilitate ordinary people to understand this process, today I will briefly talk about the process of creating an economic crisis.

Since the US dollar is an international currency, 90% of international transactions are settled in US dollars. For the sake of analysis, we can think of China as the world, and then the Bank of China is equivalent to the Federal Reserve.

So how does the government harvest wealth?

First of all, the central bank cut interest rates, both deposit interest and loan interest are very low. If the deposit interest rate is low, then people will not put money in the bank, and it will naturally circulate to the market. At this time, a large amount of money is circulating in the market. If things remain the same, prices will soar, that is, things will become expensive!

Things become more expensive, so many companies will expand production. For example, if the price of pork rises sharply, many farmers will increase their investment and expand the scale of farming.

At this time, farmers have no funds to expand the scale of farming, so they can only borrow money to expand the scale. There are two main ways to borrow money: one is to borrow money from the bank; The second private lending!

At this time, due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the central bank, the interest on bank loans is very low and the conditions are not so strict, so it is very easy to borrow a lot of money. For example, if you have fixed assets of 654.38+00,000, you can borrow 500,000 or more loans, such as 654.38+00,000. In this way, you can double the production scale in an instant!

Private loans are also easy to borrow, because bank interest is extremely low. Assuming that the bank interest rate is only 2%, as long as you promise to give the borrower an annual interest rate of 5%, it is easy for you to borrow 1 10,000 again, so you can borrow 1 10,000 again and double the output!

Look at this process carefully. At this time, you already have 3 million assets-your own assets are 6,543.8+0 million, bank loans are 6,543.8+0 million, and private loans are 6,543.8+0 million!

By the time you expand production, the supply of pork in the market has greatly increased, the price of pork has dropped, and you haven't earned that much! However, you have invested another 2 million yuan, so it is not so easy to earn it back. Suppose it takes at least five years.

In the first year, because of the newly expanded production, the price of pork is still very high, and you may earn a lot. Suppose you earn back 200 thousand this year; In the second year, because a large number of farmers expanded production, the supply of pork in the market increased greatly, and the price naturally decreased. You only earned 654.38 million yuan this year, and then you earned less every year. Later, the supply of pork in the market far exceeded the market demand, so you couldn't make any money at all and began to lose money. ...

At this time, the central bank began to raise interest rates, so that the interest you borrowed from the bank 1 10,000 increased! Suppose at this time, you lose 65,438+10,000 pigs every year. Assuming that the bank interest is increased from the previous 1% to 5%, then the interest you have to pay back every year will increase by 4%, which is 40,000, plus the 5% interest on your private loan, which is 50,000! In this way, you lose 6,543,800 yuan in aquaculture every year, and the loan interest you need to repay is 6,543,800 yuan, which is 200,000 yuan a year.

It turns out that your own assets are only 6,543,800 yuan, and the other 2 million assets are all borrowed by you. Now you are losing 200 thousand every year. At this time, you can only survive by constantly borrowing money, otherwise you can only sell your assets!

However, at this time, banks are still raising interest rates. The more you borrow, the more interest you need to repay. Moreover, the requirements for bank loans are very strict, and no money can be borrowed at all. At this time, private lending is also very difficult, and the interest rate of banks has increased to 5%. If you want to borrow money from the private sector, you may have to pay 10%!

If you go on like this, your losses will get bigger and bigger, and you will eventually have to go bankrupt! It turns out that you have 6.5438+0 million assets, borrowed 6.5438+0 million from the bank and 6.5438+0 million from the people, which is 3 million assets. Suppose you have been producing for five years and lost 500 thousand, then there are 2.5 million left. If we continue to produce, even our own 6.5438+0 million will be lost, even negative assets.

You want to sell your company at this time, but the situation is very bad at this time. You can't sell your original 3 million assets for 3 million. Nobody wants it!

At this time, you can't borrow money from banks and the private sector, and you can't afford the bank's interest, so the bank will auction your assets forcibly! Can only sell 2.3 million. With 2.3 million yuan, you paid off the bank loan and interest 165438+ ten thousand yuan, and you also paid off the private loan1200 thousand yuan. You've lost everything!

In other words, it turns out that you have assets of 6.5438+0 million. After this round of expansion, you are bankrupt!

In other words, the bank bankrupted your property by raising interest rates!

The bank auctioned your original assets worth 1 10,000 yuan to state-owned enterprises at a low price. After the state-owned enterprises get your assets, the banks start to lower interest rates again. At this time, a large number of farmers went bankrupt, and all breeding enterprises were bought by state-owned enterprises at low prices. Pork on the market began to increase in price, and state-owned enterprises made big profits!

This process is the same as the process of creating economic crisis in the United States: first, a large number of dollars are circulated around the world at extremely low interest rates, and enterprises begin to expand their enrollment. After the expansion, the United States began to raise interest rates continuously, which made many countries bankrupt. After bankruptcy, the United States will buy your assets at a low price with dollars!

The United States raised interest rates for the first time from 20 15 to 20 17 14, which is the fifth time in the United States. The interest rate increased from 0.25% to 1.25%- 1.5. A large amount of dollars circulating in the world began to flow out of some countries with poor economic conditions. At present, many countries are on the verge of collapse. For example, Venezuela has formed a debt crisis, and Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and other countries are on the verge of economic crisis!

In 20 18, the United States will enter the stage of continuous interest rate increase, interest rates will be higher and higher, and more and more southern economies will begin to have crises, and then these crises will gradually expand to the whole world, and the global economy will fall into depression!

In order to prevent domestic capital outflow, South Korea and Britain have started to raise interest rates-the United States raises interest rates, and only by raising interest rates can we ensure that capital does not flow out! With the increase of interest rate, the money supply in the domestic market will decrease, a large number of companies will close down, and economic development will be difficult. However, there is no way to do this-if you don't want to be cut by the United States, you can only do this-it is better to be cut by your own country than by the United States.

After the world economic crisis in 2008, the economic situation of many countries has not improved until now. For example, Japan, Russia and Europe are still in dire straits and are still adopting relatively loose monetary policies. Russia even cut interest rates a few days ago!

The fundamental reason is that if these countries follow the United States to raise interest rates, then the economy may collapse immediately. If they don't follow suit, there will be a lot of capital outflow, but it won't collapse!

In other words, some countries with relatively poor economic development can only let the United States cut some wool-cutting some wool is better than killing a sheep!

However, with the arrival of 20 18, the United States will raise interest rates many times, and all countries in the world will inevitably follow the United States to raise interest rates, and China is no exception!

I told you before that raising interest rates can only be used when the economic development is overheated-there are too many currencies circulating in the market, and all walks of life are expanding production and there is a serious overcapacity! Otherwise, raising interest rates will do serious harm to the economy-the market is already short of money. If we raise interest rates again, it will only make less money in the market and lead to insufficient investment, which will eventually lead to the closure of a large number of companies and unemployment of workers!

Although China's economy is developing well in the world economy, it is far from time to raise interest rates according to normal rules. However, in order to avoid being cut by the United States, we must follow the United States to raise interest rates!

In other words, in 20 18-20 19, many domestic enterprises with low profitability will go bankrupt!

At present, China is also preparing for this "crisis". In order not to let these bankrupt companies expand, at least not to cause a large-scale economic crisis in China, China has started a lot of preparatory work-such as super environmental protection, and released many risks in advance!

At present, there are only two places in China that may cause economic crisis: the property market and the stock market!

These two places are the most dangerous places. No matter which one goes bankrupt, it will cause a serious economic crisis in China!

The following is very important, you can understand it yourself, and my interpretation is for reference only.

Let's talk about the stock market first!

As I told you before, the global stock market has hit record highs, but the China stock market is half dead, because China stock market is a policy city!

Different from other countries' stock markets, other countries' stock markets are controlled by capital, so the stock markets follow the global stock markets. When the global stock markets rise sharply, they will also rise accordingly, and the role of state regulation is not great, which is the so-called market economy. But China is different. In China, the stock market is used by the state to regulate the economy. In order to prevent the stock market from plummeting from a high level because 20 18-20 19 followed the US interest rate hike, the stock market can only be controlled at a low level!

During 20 18-20 19, China will not let the stock market go up and down. If it goes up, it will be suppressed by the policy, and if it falls, it will be protected by the policy!

In other words, the possibility of a stock market surge in the past two years has been basically ruled out, and the possibility of a sharp drop has also been basically ruled out. But this does not mean that there are no opportunities, there will be many structural opportunities!

As analyzed earlier, the economic crisis of 20 18 will bankrupt many enterprises, but state-owned enterprises are the beneficiaries! Because of strong financial strength and the support of national policies, when a large number of private enterprises close down, it is time for state-owned enterprises to expand their enrollment!

Obviously, this is the best time to lay out high-quality state-owned shares!

Let's talk about the property market!

At present, the property market is the place with the largest capital stock. Once the property market collapses, China's economy will inevitably collapse! Therefore, it is impossible for the China property market to fall, which means that there is limited room for the property market to fall!

But there is no room for a sharp rise in the real estate market. Why?

Because most of the rise of the property market is due to speculation, and the speculative funds mainly come from bank loans, and if the property market rises sharply, it will prove that a large number of loans have entered the property market, and China will inevitably raise interest rates on 20 18-20 19, which will bankrupt many real estate speculators and cause a large increase in bank bad debts, and China will form a systematic financial crisis!

In other words, I think the China property market will not go up or down on 20 18-20 19! At present, China is controlling the continuous rise of the property market, including various restrictions on loans, purchases and sales, and the policy performance is already obvious! If this can't curb housing prices, the last resort must come out-property tax!

Regarding rigid demand, I think it is possible to buy a house at present, because it is only possible for house prices to rise uncontrollably, and there is no possibility of a sharp drop; As for real estate speculation, I don't think you can play, because if the house price doesn't go up, you will lose a lot, because you have to pay a lot of loan interest every month, and then you have to raise interest rates. In addition, if you can't control the rise, the property tax will kill you!

For us ordinary people, that is, people who don't speculate in stocks or speculate in real estate, we have encountered some difficulties in recent years, which are embodied in: it is difficult to make money! Therefore, we should control the lavish spending!

People with investment needs should also keep cash, because on 20 18-20 19, a large number of small companies and enterprises will go bankrupt, that is, the price of assets will be very low, which is the best time to sell!

Earlier, we wrote that there will be an economic crisis in the world in 20 18-20 19, which will start in the second half of 20 18 and reach Gao Chao in 20 19.

Many people are full of worries about this. How to protect your wealth? How does China respond to the US interest rate hike? Can you resist the American attack?

Of course I can resist!

It is not only affordable, but also a great opportunity for China!

Why do you say that?

Let's begin to analyze this problem. I believe that after reading my analysis, you will understand that this crisis is a great opportunity for China!

As mentioned earlier, a series of measures such as raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets in the United States, including tax cuts, are nothing more than trying to squeeze out the dollar liquidity in the world, leading to the loss of dollar reserves in a large number of countries, which will eventually lead to a debt crisis or lack of money to buy resources and products that have to be used internationally. Finally, the economy collapses and the country goes bankrupt! After these countries go bankrupt, the United States will buy their high-quality assets at a low price with dollars, thus achieving the goal of controlling the country's political economy!

Let's talk about the debt crisis first!

I talked to you about this before, but I didn't elaborate. Many people don't understand the process of debt crisis.

After the globalization of the world, international cooperation has been strengthened, and many projects cannot be completed by relying on the strength of one's own country. For example, those small countries in Africa, if they want to develop nuclear energy, they not only don't have that technology, but also don't have that much money. At this time, they can only seek help from the international community!

If you want to get help from other countries, you must give them dollars. Others don't want the currency of your own country! At this time, you can only find a way to get dollars, otherwise others will not help you-what will you do without money?

There are two main ways to get dollars:

First, sell things to the country in dollars in exchange for the funds needed for the project;

Second, international borrowing!

Let's focus on the second point.

There are two main ways to borrow dollars:

First, borrow from international banks and the International Monetary Fund, both of which are led by the United States. Obviously, the dollar is the currency of the United States, and the issuing right of the dollar is in the Federal Reserve, so he has a lot of dollars! But it is very difficult to borrow money from international banks and the International Monetary Fund, because the United States will attach a series of political conditions to you-for example, you must open your market to the United States, be a "pearl" country, and open your financial market!

Second, borrow money from other countries in dollars. For example, the Bank of China has a large amount of dollars, which China can borrow! Compared with the United States, China is generally not bound by too many political conditions!

In today's world, many countries owe dollars!

This was left a message some time ago. Do those countries that owe dollars owe dollars?

Not necessarily!

However, many countries owe money to the United States and many countries owe money to China!

Raising interest rates in the United States will greatly reduce the dollar reserves of many countries, so that you will not have dollars to buy the products you need internationally, nor will you have dollars to repay the debts you owe!

When the debt is due, you have no money to pay it back-this forms a debt default!

Someone once left a message asking: What happens if you owe money?

The consequences are very serious!

First, your national credit is gone! You will never want to borrow money from the world again. No country will lend you money. Even if the country lends you money again, you should raise the interest rate, otherwise others will not lend you money!

Second, do you think the country that lent you money is so easy to deal with? Do you owe money or not? Then all kinds of sanctions came, not excluding the use of force against you-for example, the United States threatened to use force against Venezuela some time ago!

At that time, Argentina owed a lot of foreign debts. Argentine President Veron obeyed Yi Ming and did the following major things: nationalizing all foreign capital, substantially raising tariffs, and refusing to repay foreign debts. ...

As soon as the decree came out, the Argentine people all rejoiced! However, this is also the beginning of Argentina's death. Confiscation of foreign assets leads to the flight of foreign assets, and the competitiveness of enterprises loses rapidly after nationalization. By raising tariff barriers, Argentina became an economic island and lost the opportunity to cooperate with the world; Refusing to repay foreign debts, Argentina completely lost its source of international funds, and since then, Argentina's economy has plummeted, with large-scale unemployment and inflation. In the end, the army launched Zheng rebellion and Peron stepped down.

For example, in the Greek debt crisis of 20 15, the Greek Prime Minister actually prepared a referendum and wanted to postpone the debt due! Note that it is not the default, just want to postpone it for a few days!