The purchase restriction will shrink the transaction volume of the property market in the short term, and investors, as the main buyers, will continue to wait and see after the introduction of the purchase restriction. "Beyond the limit" is the most lethal. Statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, local buyers in Guangzhou accounted for about 37%-40%, buyers with Guangdong household registration (excluding local household registration in Guangzhou) accounted for about 24%-25%, and non-Guangdong buyers accounted for about 33%-37%, indicating that as many as 60% of buyers were non-Guangzhou residents every quarter. "Once the limit is exceeded, it will not only affect investors. Whether it goes up or down, this tax is fixed. In addition, because VAT is levied according to the gross profit of sales, it is more difficult for developers to evade it, which increases the burden on developers to some extent.
As the property market in Guangzhou has always been rational, the house price is relatively low relative to the depth of Beijing and Shanghai, and the corresponding purchase restriction policy should not be too strict. The purchase restriction order is a product of the planned economy era and will only aggravate the oscillation of the property market. Once the policy is relaxed, a large number of pent-up demand will inevitably enter in large quantities, which will inevitably lead to a sharp rise and fall in the property market. Huang Tao thinks that the proportion of such customers is very low, only about 10% according to the Central Plains survey, and the impact on the market can be ignored.
With the arrival of the Guangzhou purchase restriction order and the convening of the Asian Games Town, there will inevitably be a short-term correction in the property market, but many policies are only temporary and will not last long. If the New Deal restricts purchases for a long time, it will have a greater impact on the property market, but if it is limited to half a year, it will have little impact on the market. Under such a policy, there is no deterrent to house prices, and it is unlikely that house prices will fall this year, because all the things that should be bought have been bought, and developers do not need to promote sales, and there is no sales atmosphere. Whether the house price can come down will not be known until the middle of next year.
In September, the transaction volume of Guangzhou property market hit a new high this year. On the one hand, developers have increased their efforts to push goods, triggering a large number of buyers with rigid demand to enter the market; On the other hand, due to the rising CPI and strong inflation expectations, investors entered the market, which triggered a sharp rebound in property market transactions. As for the "Five Articles of New China" promulgated on September 29th, the so-called New Deal is a commonplace topic, which only extends some measures to the whole country. 9.29 The strength of the New Deal should be relatively heavy regulation. Especially for first-time buyers, the regulation time should last longer than in April, and the duration will reach half a year or even longer.
If this round of new policies still can't cool down the high housing prices, will the government launch a killer weapon? Whether house prices can come down depends mainly on the attitude and implementation of the government. If the property tax of 0.3-0.4% is levied as rumored in Shanghai before, it will have no impact at all. At the same time, if the economic environment is good, no matter how the house price is adjusted, it is difficult to have a big decline.
If real estate wants to develop for a long time, the focus is not on regulation, but on increasing the supply of commercial housing, expanding the coverage of affordable housing and expanding financing channels. For thousands of years, the tradition in China has been that all residents have their own homes, which has caused many grassroots people to be unable to afford houses. If this awareness can be changed, then the real estate in China will develop healthily.
Attachment: Full text of Guangzhou purchase restriction order
Opinions on implementing the macro-control policies of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other ministries and commissions to promote the sustained and healthy development of real estate in our city
(Sui Guo Fang Zi [2010]1311)
All relevant units:
According to the Notice of the State Council on Resolutely Curbing the Excessive Rise of Housing Prices in Some Cities (Guo Fa [2065 438+00] 10), in order to further implement the relevant spirit of the recent national policy of strengthening the regulation of the real estate market, consolidate the results of the regulation of the real estate market, resolutely curb the excessive rise of housing prices, promote the stable and healthy development of real estate in our city, and speed up the housing security work, combined with the actual development of the real estate market in our city, we hereby put forward the following implementation opinions:
First, resolutely curb unreasonable housing demand and strictly limit all kinds of real estate speculation and speculative house purchase.
In the ten districts under the jurisdiction of this Municipality, the policy of restricting the number of houses purchased by households is temporarily implemented. For households registered in this city (including buyers, spouses and minor children, different) and non-household registered in this city who can provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates for more than 1 year in this city, they can only buy a new set of commercial housing in this city; Non-local residents who cannot provide proof of paying taxes or paying social insurance in this city for more than 1 year are not allowed to buy commercial housing in this city; /kloc-people under the age of 0/8 are not allowed to buy commercial housing alone in this city; Regarding the purchase of commercial housing by overseas institutions and individuals, the relevant policies such as Opinions on Regulating the Access and Management of Foreign Investment in the Real Estate Market (J&F [2006] 17 1No.) issued by the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange are strictly followed, and the newly purchased commercial housing must strictly implement the relevant credit policies.
Commercial housing includes new commercial housing and second-hand housing. From the date of promulgation of this opinion, all commercial housing transactions must implement the provisions of this opinion. The transaction time is determined by the time when the purchase contract is signed in the information system of the real estate administrative department of this Municipality, and the second-hand house is based on the time when the real estate transaction registration department accepts the business. In violation of the provisions of the purchase of commercial housing, the real estate transaction registration department will not accept the real estate registration.
Two, strictly implement the national differentiated housing credit policy.
Commercial banks suspend the issuance of housing loans for households to purchase more than the third set; Non-local residents who cannot provide local tax payment certificate or social insurance payment certificate 1 year or more will be suspended from issuing house purchase loans. For families who buy the first self-occupied house with a building area of over 90 square meters, the down payment ratio shall not be less than 30%, and for families who buy the second house by loan, it shall be strictly implemented, and the loan interest rate shall not be less than 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate. All commercial banks should strengthen the management of consumer loans and prohibit consumer loans from being used for buying houses. It is forbidden for commercial banks to issue housing mortgage loans with unknown purposes whose loan amount fluctuates with the real estate appraisal value; For mortgaged properties, commercial banks may not issue additional loans with the revalued net value as collateral before the buyers pay off the loans.
The down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans is not less than 20% for families who buy the first home and the building area in Xing Tao is less than 90 square meters, not less than 30% for families who buy the first home and the building area in Xing Tao is more than 90 square meters, and not less than 50% for families who buy the second home. The down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans for residents who purchase third and above houses is suspended.
Three, strictly implement the relevant national real estate tax policies.
Local tax authorities should strictly implement the Announcement of Guangzhou Local Taxation Bureau on Adjusting the Withholding Rate of Land Value-added Tax in Our City (No.1 20 10), focus on strengthening the liquidation and inspection of land value-added tax for real estate development projects whose pricing obviously exceeds the surrounding housing prices, conscientiously do a good job in the collection and management of land value-added tax, and give full play to the role of tax control.
Fourth, increase the intensity of housing security and gradually expand the coverage of housing security.
Further expand the scope of housing security. After solving the housing security of 77 177 low-income families registered in the housing survey in 2008, the scope of housing security will be gradually expanded from low-income families with housing difficulties to lower-middle income families.
Vigorously develop public rental housing. Before the end of the year, the public rental housing policy will be introduced. Through preferential policies such as land, credit and taxation, we will support and encourage social forces to participate in the construction of public rental housing, increase the supply of public rental housing through multiple channels and ways, and speed up the solution of the "sandwich" housing difficulties.
Five, this opinion from the date of issuance.
(The above answers were published on 20 15-07-20. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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