China's trade prospect, structure and exchange rate mechanism: upgrading China from a big developing trading country to a powerful developing trading country as soon as possible is the core of China's new economic development strategy in the first decade of the 20th century. In the first five years of this century, China's import and export made great strides, while international trade protectionism rose, and trade barriers against China products were constantly strengthened. Whether China can successfully realize the strategy of a trading power This paper will analyze the evolution trend of China's trade structure and the adjustment trend of exchange rate mechanism from the current trade situation, and draw the conclusion that China will become a developing trading power in the world in the next five to ten years. Keywords: dynamic comparative advantage of exchange rate mechanism of high-tech products trade structure 1. Introduction Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade volume has increased from $20.6 billion in 1978 to $620.79 billion in 2002, and its ranking in world trade has risen from 32nd to 5th. The average annual growth rate of foreign trade exceeds that of the national economy. It is estimated that in 2003, China's total import and export volume will exceed US$ 800 billion, which will replace Britain as the fourth largest trading country in the world, and China will become a veritable trading power. But China is not a strong trading country. Then the next stage is China's journey from a big trading country to a powerful trading country. Upgrading China from a developing trading power to a developing trading power as soon as possible is the core of China's new economic development strategy in the first decade of the 20th century. So, can China complete this historic transformation in the next five to ten years? Second, from a trading power to a trading power (1) a veritable trading power. In the past 20 years, the average growth rate of China's exports was twice that of GDP. The share of China's export commodities in the world market increased from 0.75% in 1978 to 5. 1% in 2002, and China's ranking among the world's export powers correspondingly rose from 1978 to the 32nd. The proportion of exports in China's GDP increased from 20.3% in 1997 to 26.6% in 2002. The structure of export commodities has also improved significantly: the ratio of primary products to industrial finished products has changed from 65438+25.2: 74.8 in190 to 9: 91in 2002, and the export proportion of high-tech products has increased from 20. 18% to 34%. This shows that China has become a veritable trading power. (2) The gap towards a trade power China has developed into a foreign economic and trade power, but it is not yet a foreign economic and trade power. In the new century, the goal of China should be to develop from a foreign trade power to a foreign trade power. However, compared with the world trade powers, there are still many gaps. Mainly manifested in the fact that China's export products and services trade has little competitive advantage, and processing trade accounts for half of the country, resulting in unfavorable terms of trade. China must improve its foreign trade competitiveness, speed up the adjustment and optimization of its export commodity structure, and improve its industrial structure and trade structure. The main force of China's rapid export growth is foreign-funded enterprises, which have played a leading role in China's export growth and structural improvement. The proportion of foreign-invested enterprises' exports in China's total exports increased from 65438+4 1% in 1997 to 52.2% in 2002, and the proportion of high-tech products exported by foreign-invested enterprises increased from 70% to 85% in the same period. The contribution of foreign-funded enterprises to China's export increment increased from 47% in the Ninth Five-Year Plan period to 8 1.7% and 5438+0 in 2006, and the proportion of processing trade in total exports increased from 47% in 1.994 to 55.3% in 2002, and the proportion of processing trade in high-tech products exports reached 88%. This is quite different from the situation that the proportion of general trade exports is greater than that of processing trade exports in the world's major trading countries, which shows that the export capacity and growth potential of local enterprises in China are far from being brought into play. China's trade structure is underdeveloped, and its international competitiveness needs to be greatly improved. International experience shows that a country's trade structure will change from exporting labor-intensive products and importing capital-intensive products to exporting capital-intensive products and service products and importing labor-intensive. If a country wants to gain more benefits from international competition, it should make its high value-added industries have strong international competitiveness. The proportion of products with high technical content and added value in China's export commodities is low, while the proportion of products with high technical content and added value in China's export commodities is low. At present, in China's export structure, the proportion of labor-intensive products is high, while the proportion of capital-intensive products (such as machinery and transportation equipment) is relatively low; In the import structure, the proportion of labor-intensive products is low, and the proportion of capital-intensive products is high. This shows that China's trade structure is still in an underdeveloped stage. In addition, from the perspective of industrial trade dependence, China's trade structure is also in an underdeveloped stage. Generally speaking, the more developed the trade structure, the more internationally competitive the capital-intensive products are. At present, because processing trade has accounted for a large proportion of China's foreign trade, the total level of trade structure is difficult to reflect China's international competitiveness, while the general trade import structure and the general trade structure export structure can better reflect the development level and international competitiveness level of trade structure. (C) the main constraints to become a powerful country. In recent years, international trade protectionism has been on the rise, and the means of protection have become more subtle. The trade barriers of China products in major export markets have been continuously strengthened, and cases of anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures against China's export commodities have continued. All these factors make it more difficult for China to explore the international market. Foreign technical barriers to trade will further restrict the development of China's foreign trade. As an exogenous trade restriction measure, technical barriers are becoming a weapon for more and more countries to frequently restrict the export of China products and protect their own industries. Technical barriers to trade have caused adverse effects on China's export enterprises, such as reducing international market share, urban trade opportunities, withdrawing from the trade market, damaging the reputation of enterprises, etc., which have brought long-term negative effects on China's exports. Since 1996, China has become the country with the largest number of anti-dumping investigations on its export products in the world. Especially in recent years, the anti-dumping suffered by China products involves almost all kinds of export products. In 200 1 year, the number of anti-dumping investigations in China accounted for 15% of global cases in that year, and rose to 17% in 2002, and finally 36 anti-dumping measures were taken, ranking first in the world. According to incomplete statistics, in the first three quarters of 2003, countries including the United States and Australia filed more than 42 anti-dumping safeguard measures against China products, involving more than $654.38+0.7 billion. Trade experts also predict that if this situation continues, the trade dispute in China will reach its peak. The competition in the international market is fierce, while China's low value-added products have low uniqueness, poor anti-crisis ability and weak competitiveness of export commodities, making it difficult to stabilize exports at critical moments. China's labor-intensive export products are based on low labor costs, and all these industries have a common feature: low cost and easy market access. Therefore, it is easy to cause excessive investment, which in turn leads to overcapacity, and ultimately leads to oversupply, which will inevitably lead to vicious competition. The final result of disorderly competition is anti-dumping prosecution or safeguard measures. (d) The transformation from a big trading country to a powerful trading country requires a long-term transformation of trading power. The key to realize the sustained growth of trade is the transformation of trade power. The transformation of trade power comes from the transformation of industrial structure, and the benign interaction of industrial structure, domestic demand structure and trade structure forms the transformation of industrial structure. At present, the driving force of China's trade growth is based on the comparative advantage of labor, and the dominant trade structure is labor-intensive products. The terms of trade deteriorate with the increase of trade volume, because the driving force of trade growth has not changed with the change of trade growth stage, which shows that the potential of low-cost labor advantage is insufficient, and further shows that comparative advantage faces the need to change to a high level. How to transform the existing comparative advantage into long-term competitive advantage is the most fundamental and serious problem in the adjustment of industrial structure in China. It is necessary to realize my goal of changing from a big trading country to a powerful trading country and increase the dynamic benefits that China has gained in its foreign economic exchanges. The key is to strengthen the existing comparative advantages of China's foreign trade export, cultivate high-tech industries with potential competitive advantages, transform traditional industries with high technology, and realize the second transformation of China's trade structure in open competition. Three. Analysis on the Changing Trend of China's Trade Structure I. Environmental Factors Affecting the Transformation of China's Trade Structure I. The world economic structure is also undergoing fundamental changes, which provides an opportunity for China to share the global technological progress and the efficiency improvement brought by the world. The optimization and upgrading of China's foreign trade structure will be affected by both positive and negative aspects. First, due to the highly developed industrial structure led by information technology industry and the promotion of foreign capital in high-tech fields in China, the export competitiveness of mechanical and electrical products will continue to improve and become the growth point of export growth. The focus of foreign investment has developed from general manufacturing to basic industries, infrastructure and high-tech industries. Especially in the past two years, foreign investment in integrated circuits, computers, information products and other high-tech projects has increased significantly, which not only improved the technical content of China's export products, but also transformed, nurtured and expanded a number of pillar and advantageous industries in China, thus enhancing China's export capacity and international competitiveness as a whole. On the other hand, from the perspective of domestic industrial structure adjustment, the structural adjustment under the framework of WTO means to further enhance the existing comparative advantage, and China's industrial structure may have a "low level" adjustment stage. The existing labor-intensive industries in China will further develop, while the technology-intensive industries will face greater competitive pressure. This will help solve the employment problem, but it may also increase the proportion of traditional commodities again, which is not in line with the goal of industrial restructuring in China in the long run. How to transform the existing comparative advantage into long-term competitive advantage is the most fundamental and serious problem in the adjustment of industrial structure in China. (2) The reform of foreign trade system has promoted the diversification of foreign trade business entities. China has earnestly fulfilled its commitment to join the WTO, and the fields of opening to the outside world have been continuously expanded, and the laws and regulations system and investment environment have been continuously improved, which has enhanced the confidence of foreign investors in investing in China. Foreign investment continues to increase, and the interaction between investment and trade is further enhanced. At the same time, with the accelerated liberalization of China's foreign trade management rights, the vitality of various market players, especially private enterprises, has been further released, and the independent growth capacity of imports and exports has been significantly enhanced. Two. Current situation of trade structure development (I) Overall development. China's foreign trade export has achieved two leaps: First, in the early 1980s, it got rid of the export structure dominated by resources and entered a period dominated by the export of labor-intensive manufactured goods, and China's foreign trade export took the first step of 50 billion US dollars. 1995, the export structure of foreign trade has undergone a decisive change, and the export of mechanical and electrical products has surpassed textile and garment products for the first time to become the largest export product. The export of mechanical and electrical products with dual characteristics of labor-intensive and technology-intensive has sprung up suddenly, making China's foreign trade export step up to 300 billion US dollars in 2002. In 2002, the export of high-tech products surpassed textiles for the first time, reaching $67.707 billion. China's foreign trade export has entered a new stage in which mechanical and electrical products drive the national foreign trade export and high-tech exports drive the rapid growth of mechanical and electrical products export. (2) developing high-tech exports. With the rapid development of world trade globalization, high-tech products have become a new force in world trade, and the level of high-tech industries has become a symbol to measure a country's international competitiveness. After China's entry into WTO, taking the strategy of developing trade through science and technology as its strategy, it will further vigorously develop high-tech industries, promote the secondary adjustment of export commodity structure, and occupy the international market with high technology, thus driving the economic take-off of China in the 2 1 century. With the continuous high-speed growth of import and export of high-tech products, the position of high-tech products in China's foreign trade has been continuously improved, and the foreign trade structure of China has been greatly improved. In 2002, the proportion of high-tech products exports to merchandise exports and manufactured goods exports exceeded 1/5 for the first time, reaching 20.8% and 22.8% respectively. 10 years ago, the export of high-tech products accounted for only 5.9% of industrial manufactured goods, which increased by nearly 17 percentage points in 10. The export of high-tech products has become an important factor to promote China's economic growth. At the same time, the rapid economic development in China has created a huge market demand for high-tech products. In recent years, with the implementation of the plan to promote trade through science and technology, the import and export trade of high-tech products in China has grown rapidly, and the status of high-tech products in China's commodity import and export has been continuously improved. China's high-tech exports have maintained a high-speed growth trend, which has become the focus of global attention, despite the weak growth of global high-tech exports and the general downturn in the development of high-tech industries. After 10 years of rapid growth, and the export base is close to US$ 50 billion, which continues to grow at a rate of nearly 50%, it can be seen that the development of high-tech industries in China has entered its heyday. In the first two years of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, China's high-tech industries developed rapidly, and the export value of high-tech products exceeded 65.438+065.438+043./kloc-0.7 billion US dollars, exceeding the 65.438+065.438+00960 billion US dollars in the whole Ninth Five-Year Plan period. Compared with 1992, the export of high-tech products in China quadrupled in 10, with an average annual growth rate of 32.7%, which is more than three times that of GDP in the same period. In 2003, high-tech mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products have been the main commodities to promote the rapid growth of China's foreign trade. In the first three quarters, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products were156.44 billion dollars and 73.33 billion dollars, respectively, up by 4654.38+0.4% and 58.2% year-on-year, accounting for 6654.38+0.0% and 35.9% of the total export growth. Table-1 Proportion of export of high-tech products to export of goods and finished products (1992 ~ 2002) Unit:%199219931994199565438. 438+02002 accounts for 4.75.15.26.88.48.91.012.7738+04.917.520.8% of industrial finished products. .619.422.8 III. Forecast and Analysis of Trade Structure According to the analysis of the development trend of China's trade structure, it can be predicted that China will develop from a big trading country to a powerful developing trading country in the next few years. By 20 10, China's commodity import and export structure and benefits will be further improved, and the scientific and technological content and added value of export commodities will be significantly improved; Service trade has achieved rapid growth, and the international competitiveness of key service industries has been significantly enhanced; The field of utilizing foreign capital is further expanded, the technical level and scale of the project are improved, and the structure and regional layout are more reasonable; Foreign investment has steadily expanded, and the development and utilization of overseas resources and processing trade have formed a certain scale; The current account revenue and expenditure are generally balanced, and the national foreign exchange reserves and major foreign debt indicators are maintained at a reasonable level. The international competitiveness of major industries and products has been significantly enhanced. Enterprises will achieve faster technological progress and better economic benefits by participating in international competition, the stability of RMB exchange rate will gain a more solid foundation, and the country's comprehensive national strength will be further enhanced. At the same time, China's open economic structure will be basically established, and the foreign trade management system that meets the requirements of the socialist market economy and international rules will be gradually improved. Foreign economic relations and trade will better promote the development of the national economy. As a part of high technology, electronic information products have become the main driving force of China's foreign trade growth. In promoting the export of high-tech products, we will cultivate a number of high-tech export products and enterprises with strong international competitiveness, high added value and large export scale in China's advantageous areas, so that the export of high-tech products in China will increase at a rate of more than 20% every year, and it is expected to reach120 billion US dollars by 20 10, accounting for 30% of the country's total export, and initially complete the transformation of China's export commodity structure from low added value products to high. RMB exchange rate mechanism The stability and formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate is the key factor affecting China's foreign trade prospects. The historical lessons of the appreciation of the Japanese yen prove that the exchange rate will be a long-term factor affecting China's trade development. The appreciation of RMB will cause serious damage to China's advantageous industries. From the perspective of international division of labor, compared with developed countries, China, as a developing country, mainly focuses on manufacturing, and this trade structure is easily affected by the change of exchange rate level. Compared with developed countries, China, as a developing country, takes advantage of labor cost to participate in the international division of labor. The products of labor-intensive enterprises are of low grade and low added value. If the RMB appreciates, the production cost and labor cost of exporters will also increase accordingly. Under the condition that the international market price remains unchanged, the decline in export profits seriously affects export growth. 1, the influence of exchange rate mechanism on trade. Exchange rate policy is an important tool to realize the internal and external balance of a country's economy, and exchange rate has become the most direct and effective means to regulate international economic competition. A country can make use of the analysis conclusion of the influence of exchange rate fluctuation to actively choose the deviation of exchange rate level (that is, underestimate or overestimate its local currency) to adjust international monetary relations and create a favorable economic development environment. China should use the exchange rate as a tool to regulate imports and exports. Generally speaking, the increase in the real purchasing power of foreign currency reflected by the undervaluation of local currency leads to relatively high prices of foreign products, which is not conducive to the deterioration of the balance between foreign trade and foreign current account, but on the other hand, it is also conducive to foreign financing and direct investment, and the income of foreign investment increases. Undervaluation of local currency will improve the terms of foreign trade (terms of trade = price change rate of unit export products/price change rate of unit import products), which means that foreign exports can be exchanged for imported goods of one unit commodity, and the utilization of foreign resources is more optimized. In the long run, this will promote foreign economic growth. The undervaluation of the local currency makes the real purchasing power of foreign currency increase relatively, which will encourage foreign direct investment. With the development of foreign direct investment, foreign productivity represented by capital and technology will be transferred to our country, and foreign countries will encounter a certain degree of "industrial hole", which will lead to the decline of foreign employment and GDP. However, at the same time, foreign investment has increased, and the net income of investment has increased, thus increasing GNP. In addition, with the development of foreign direct investment, a large number of foreign-funded enterprises have been established in China, and the resale of their products will further worsen the foreign trade situation. It is better to overestimate capital currency. For each country, the determination of its currency exchange rate level mainly depends on whether the currency mainly plays a trade role or an investment role in foreign economic relations. The United States has a developed capital market, attracting world capital, and investment plays an important role in its foreign economic relations. The dollar is a "capital currency", so the United States supports the "strong dollar policy". However, Japan lacks a developed financial market and its capital export capacity is not strong. Trade has always played an important role in its foreign economic relations, and the yen is more inclined to be used as a trade currency, so Japan strongly resists the appreciation of the yen. With the development of economy, a country's foreign economic relations will change from trade to investment, from simple commodity exchange to the transfer of core production factors such as capital and technology, which requires its currency level to change from a low level to a high level. 2. The inevitability of RMB exchange rate mechanism reform. The long-term stability of RMB exchange rate is both theoretical and practical and unrealistic. We should change the guiding ideology of foreign exchange management policy, make the exchange rate more truly reflect the market supply and demand, and give play to the role of market mechanism. The basis of real floating exchange rate is the opening of current account, capital account and financial account management. In the medium and long term, it is not advisable to peg the RMB to the US dollar. It will only make the RMB a highly reliable substitute for the US dollar, which is not conducive to the regionalization and internationalization of the RMB. Under the background of deepening financial globalization, if China continues to maintain this institutional arrangement, it will not only face the constraints of increasing operating costs and risks, but also reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. Undoubtedly, with the further acceleration of China's opening-up process after its accession to the World Trade Organization, these problems and contradictions will become increasingly prominent and become an important factor affecting China's financial security. Because China's current exchange rate system is actually a fixed exchange rate system linked to the US dollar, although this institutional arrangement has basically adapted to China's current economic development stage and played an important role in promoting economic development; However, it is undeniable that this exchange rate system arrangement also has many defects, such as the lack of exchange rate formation mechanism, the lack of flexibility or flexibility of exchange rate, and the lack of accurate basis for exchange rate adjustment. Therefore, the current RMB exchange rate system must be reformed, and it is the general trend to re-select the exchange rate system. 3. The choice of exchange rate mechanism in China. The reform direction of RMB exchange rate system can be divided into long-term goals and short-term goals. In the long run, the reform direction of RMB exchange rate system is to increase the flexibility and flexibility of exchange rate and expand the floating range of exchange rate; However, in the near future, after eliminating the pressure and expectation of appreciation, the floating range of RMB exchange rate should be expanded, the foreign exchange settlement and sale system should be gradually abolished, and the formation mechanism should be changed from pegged to the dollar to pegged to a basket of currencies. Expanding the floating space of RMB exchange rate can not only overcome all kinds of risks and disadvantages of one-time appreciation, but also better reflect the changing market situation and economic environment. The compulsory settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks and the closure of the inter-bank foreign exchange market are important reasons for the lack of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, which makes it difficult for RMB exchange rate to become a real market exchange rate. Therefore, the current compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale system of domestic enterprises should gradually transition to the willing foreign exchange settlement system, so that the whole foreign exchange supply and demand can effectively clear the price, and the price can flexibly guide and adjust the supply and demand. After the implementation of current account convertibility, the willingness to sell foreign exchange in current account will be basically realized, and the willingness to sell foreign exchange in capital account needs to be gradually improved according to the process of capital account opening. On the basis of market supply and demand, the goal of RMB exchange rate regulation can be changed from pegged to a basket of currencies to reference to a basket of currencies. Including USD, JPY and EUR, the appropriate weights can be selected according to the trade situation. Pegging to a basket of currencies will help to dilute the market's concern about the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and stabilize the terms of trade between China and the US dollar zone, the euro zone and the Japanese yen zone. When the relationship between market supply and demand is inconsistent with the target exchange rate of monetary calculation, or even the direction is inconsistent, it must be adjusted based on the relationship between market supply and demand: what is dynamic comparative advantage? Answer: Dynamic comparative advantage, theoretical development, exogenous variables and endogenous variables. The traditional comparative advantage theory reveals the causes of international trade and the optimal trade model of a country under the influence of existing resources and supply and demand forces from the perspective of labor productivity differences or resource endowment differences among countries, which conforms to the needs and trends of free trade development at that time and has made great contributions to the development of international trade theory. However, with the development of social productive forces and science and technology, the applicable environment of traditional comparative advantage theory has changed, and its various defects have gradually emerged. In particular, its static analysis method, which ignores technological progress and time factors, the transformation of comparative advantages and the cultivation of potential advantages, damages the universality and applicability of the theory to a certain extent and cannot give a satisfactory explanation for the changes in the contemporary international trade pattern. After the Second World War, the rapid economic rise of Japan and the newly industrialized countries in East Asia challenged the traditional theory of comparative advantage, and at the same time aroused people's interest in this issue. Some economists began to explain and analyze the causes and welfare effects of international trade from a new theoretical perspective, especially from a dynamic perspective or using dynamic analysis methods to explain the development of international trade and the changes in its pattern. They relaxed the assumptions of the traditional comparative advantage theory, considered various factors and variables, especially the factors of technological progress and technological diffusion, and discussed the dynamic development of trade interests or comparative advantages in a broader theoretical framework and closer to reality, and the dynamic comparative advantage theory gradually formed. The discussion and research on this issue are basically carried out from two directions. One is to follow ricardian model and still regard technology as an exogenous variable, but analyze the impact of technological changes on trade patterns and welfare levels of countries from a dynamic perspective; The second is to study the relationship between technological change, international trade and economic growth by taking technology as an endogenous variable.