Author: Shi Hanbing (contemporary)

Column: literature. novel

Category: Modern

Since the beginning of 2 1 century, the housing prices in the United States, Britain, Russian Federation, China and other major countries in the world have been rising continuously, which makes the thinking of both government decision makers and the public fall into the "short board" of human wisdom. For a long time, people generally believe that human society has entered a new era, and house prices have only gone up but not down. Investors completely ignored the historical warning of the bursting of the real estate bubble and fell into the "herd effect" of general buying, and the large-scale participation of financial institutions further pushed up housing prices. Now that the "sheep" have fled, investors generally sell houses, leading to a greater downward trend in house prices.

The subprime mortgage crisis has greatly changed the pace of sustained high-speed economic growth and industrial transformation and upgrading in China. Corresponding to the excessive consumption capacity of the United States is China's far excess production capacity relative to domestic demand. By the end of 2007, China's crude steel output accounted for 36.4% of the global output, and cement accounted for 48% of the global output (mainly for export industrial production, investment and domestic real estate construction services); The production capacity of China automobile industry exceeds 6,543,803,000 vehicles, but the sales volume is only 9 million vehicles. China produces more than/kloc-0.00 billion pairs of shoes every year, accounting for nearly 70% of the global total, and is the largest footwear manufacturing base in the world. These examples show that China's manufacturing industry, which meets the consumption needs of the United States and the world at low prices, is facing a very severe economic crisis characterized by overproduction, and at this time, the economic recession in Europe and the United States caused by this financial crisis leads to a decrease in import demand.

Even ordinary people in China can see that China's economy is closely related to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which really changed China. In addition to the obvious decline in the growth rate of trade, it also directly hit China's export processing industry, which is highly dependent on foreign countries. China's foreign exchange reserves participated in maintaining the excessive consumption of the United States, and in the process of this excessive consumption return, China's overseas investment suffered serious losses, foreign exchange reserves depreciated and foreign debts increased. In addition, China also has a serious asset bubble in real estate, stock and other fields, which is closely related to the entry of international hot money to some extent. In the context of the world financial crisis, the overall economic situation in China, the downturn in the real estate and stock markets, the lowering of the expectation of RMB appreciation and the reversal of the interest rate situation have all made hot money lose its reason for existence. If the hot money flows out in a short time, the impact on China's financial system will be enormous.

The American subprime mortgage crisis, which seems to have little to do with China's economy, has had a great impact on China, resulting in overcapacity in China's industry and falling house prices and share prices. Considering the important role of industrial production and real estate investment in promoting China's economic growth, the subprime mortgage crisis will change the situation of China's sustained high-speed economic growth, lead to China's economic decline or even recession, and then hit other countries' economies that rely on China's annual import scale of 1 trillion US dollars, and push the world economy into a further recession cycle, which is the inevitable result of economic globalization.

China and the world economy are mutual markets, which has undoubtedly become the basic excuse for European and American countries in the hardest hit areas of the financial crisis to ask China to participate in the rescue. Regarding whether China should participate in the US rescue, the analysis in this book is worthy of high-level reference. On the basis of sober analysis, this book puts forward that if the bailout funds are injected into the United States, the dollar will inevitably depreciate, that is, the debt will be legally "written down". Once China rashly intervenes in the US rescue market, maybe in a few years, the rescued person will become a person who needs to be rescued, and the rescued person may become a giant. With regard to China's future choice, this book puts forward some suggestions, such as establishing a large RMB system, establishing a regional monetary union, and protecting natural resources, which are of great reference value to the current macro-decision of the China government.

On expanding domestic demand, this book also puts forward the important idea of promoting the national income distribution to individuals and breaking through the shackles of sluggish domestic demand, which is an important suggestion in line with national conditions. As analyzed in this book, the problems existing in China's economy itself include excessive dependence on foreign countries, excessive dependence on investment and real estate at home, weak domestic demand due to income distribution differentiation, and insufficient economic growth momentum, which is in great danger of a "hard landing". Due to the high dependence on foreign countries, China's economic security is subject to people, and it is prone to economic turmoil and even economic crisis under the influence of external forces.

In order to expand domestic demand, China even sacrificed industrial upgrading and returned to the road of expanding investment and export by implementing measures such as real estate rescue and reducing export tax rebate rate. However, if the source consumption of domestic demand cannot be started, the current Chinese-style rescue of the market may not be the fundamental solution to save China's economy.

To achieve stable and sustainable development, China must shift the driving force of economic growth from external demand to domestic demand. By increasing people's disposable income, establishing a sound social security mechanism and cutting government administrative expenses, China's future will be consolidated on the basis of meeting the growing material and cultural living standards of the overwhelming majority of the people.

Since ancient times, "those who do not seek eternal life are short of time;" He who does not seek the overall situation is not enough to seek a domain. "When everyone is drunk, there are always sober people who are not confused by the' herd effect'. However, their voices were soon drowned out by the noise of people counting money. As far as I know, the author of this book, Mr. Shi Hanbing, has this kind of wisdom and ability, so this book which pays equal attention to theory and practice is even more precious.