2. Case analysis
For example: 20 15. 12 commodity bottoming judgment
Empirical index: CRB industrial raw material index.
Over the past 60 years, its year-on-year growth rate has basically fluctuated between 20%. It fell below -20% three times, once in the 1950s, once in the famous 1975 crude oil crisis and once in the global financial crisis in 2008. By the end of 20 15, this indicator fell to the range of -20% again. But historically, even in 1975 or 2008, it took only three or four months for this indicator to reach the final bottom from the position of -20%. Therefore, an important counter-mainstream judgment at that time was that commodity prices were about to bottom out.
Logical analysis: 20 12-20 15, commodity prices fell, mainly because the economic growth rate of BRIC countries moved down. In 20 12, the economic growth rate of China dropped from 9.5% in 20 1 1 year to 7.5%. Not only China, but also Brazil, India and Russia have passed the fastest economic growth stage, so the global commodities are in a bit of a panic, so everyone reevaluates the commodity prices according to the decline in the economic growth rate of the BRIC countries. But by the end of 20 15, China's economic growth rate reached about 6.5%, basically stabilized, and Indian economic growth rate returned to about 7%. If the downward trend of commodity prices in the last round reflects the expectation of the economic downturn of the BRIC countries, then this expectation has already been reflected in the price.
Example: 20 16Q3 is the economy going up or down?
Indicator: The inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises is year-on-year, which has a very good correlation with economic indicators.
The finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises basically fluctuates periodically, and there have been three lows in history, one in 2002, one in 2009 and the third in the third quarter of 20 16. In the third quarter of 20 16, the index fell to all historical lows. If the economic law continues to be effective, then the whole economic rebound may be a high probability event. It is possible that in just one or two months, the development of the facts will deviate from the law, but the heart rate will become larger and larger. That is to say, as the inventory goes low, the ROE (return on net assets) and ROS (sales profit rate) of the enterprise can basically reach a relatively balanced state, and the average value of the regression law is a high probability event. We can look for other indicators to verify, and eventually more and more evidence will point to the same conclusion.
Example: 2065438+Judgment of interest rate trend in the third quarter of 2006
Indicator: The finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises is highly correlated with the interest rate trend. Judging from the past trend of 15, the two are basically highly correlated.
Although considering that the law may not be completely effective in the short term, the actual development will not deviate from the law for a long time. Each cycle of interest rate lags slightly behind the inventory cycle by half a position. By the third quarter of 20 16, the inventory has bottomed out for more than two months, which proves that a new round of inventory cycle may have begun. At this time, the arrival of the bottom of interest rate is nothing more than a matter of time. If the inventory cycle has started to rebound, then according to the rule of experience, the interest rate rebound should not be far away, so we pointed out at that time that the bottom of the interest rate cycle may be emerging.
Logical analysis: interest rate is actually the return you ask for by lending money to others. This return includes your expected return on investment and inflation compensation, which add up to the nominal growth rate. Therefore, all shadow indicators of nominal growth rate, such as industrial enterprise income, industrial enterprise profit, industrial enterprise finished goods inventory, should have a good correlation with interest rates.
Example: Juglan cycle judgment in 20 17
Indicator: the utilization level of equipment capacity in the prosperity diffusion index of 5000 industrial enterprises.
This indicator basically goes through a cycle every 8- 10 years. This cycle is the Juglan cycle in economics, which is driven by equipment renewal and capital expenditure of enterprises. The last cycle started at 1998, peaked in 2006, bottomed out after the crisis in 2009, and then began to rise again, peaking at 20 1 1 and ending at 20 16, just reaching the bottom of experience, so we judge that the new cycle in Jugra may be at 20/kloc-0.
Logical analysis: In 2009, with the launch of the 4 trillion plan, a large number of mechanical equipment were launched. However, the depreciation life of different equipment is different, some are 5-6 years, and some are 10- 12 years. If we make a normal distribution of the depreciation life of all mechanical equipment, the depreciation life of the core of the normal distribution should be 7-8 years. By the end of 20 16, most of the machinery and equipment put into use in 2009 have been depreciated, and the equipment utilization rate of the whole industrial enterprise has reached a low point, so a new round of equipment investment recovery should be a high probability event. With this assumption, we can further study the marginal changes of capital expenditure and related indicators of the whole enterprise, such as verifying the hypothesis through the changes of sales profit rate, fixed assets turnover rate and micro leverage ratio.
For example, the yield of 20 18 10-year treasury bonds.
Different people have different frames to judge the interest rate trend, and different people have different views. However, there are also empirical indicators: the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is in good agreement with the yield of 10-year government bonds, which is unmatched by other indicators.
How to judge whether the correlation between two indicators is false correlation?
Economic logic analysis: foreign exchange reserves are a shadow indicator of nominal growth in a sense, and the high growth period is generally accompanied by the expansion of exports and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, while nominal growth is the same indicator as the yield of 10-year government bonds; At the same time, at the stage when the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is high and the pressure of foreign exchange holdings is high, the policy will not be too loose, and liquidity may be recovered through some policy operations, which will also bring about an increase in interest rates.
In view of the situation of 20 18, we can capture the basic trend of foreign exchange reserves through the changes of trade in goods and services, and then judge the general change of the yield of 10-year government bonds. After all, the cycle of foreign exchange reserves is relatively stable, not high-frequency fluctuations. So it is not surprising to see that the yield of 20 18 10-year treasury bonds once fell from 4.0% to 3.6%.
For example, the judgment of "two rounds of economic downturn" in 20 18 years.
Indicator: China's exports are highly consistent with its nominal GDP.
In the middle of 20 18, our exports were at a high level. Judging from the export cycle itself or the normal base, we can infer that from the fourth quarter of 20 18 to the first half of next year, exports may have a gradual decline process. At the same time, we further divide the economic slowdown into two stages according to the empirical law of export. The first stage is the fourth quarter of 20 18, facing the decline of orders and the deterioration of export expectations; By the first half of 20 19, we will see a decline in the overall export volume. These two stages just correspond to two rounds of deceleration of nominal GDP, so we put forward the judgment that the economy will experience two rounds of deceleration in the future.