This year, the biggest change is the change of economic development ideas. At the Central Economic Work Conference, the Central Committee proposed that economic growth should change from "fast and good" to "good and fast". The change in the order of the two words actually reflects that China's economy will change from quantitative growth to quality improvement, and from export-oriented to domestic demand-oriented. In this transformation process, large-scale economic restructuring is inevitable.
This year, the biggest challenge is to avoid economic ups and downs. In the process of economic restructuring and macro-control, how to avoid a hard landing of macro-economy is the focus of economic work. Excessive liquidity caused by excessive double surplus of international payments will exist for a long time, which also increases the difficulty of implementing macro-control policies. Balancing the relationship between curbing inflation and increasing employment requires great political and policy wisdom.
Economic life began in 2007.
From "fast and good province" in early years to "good and fast" put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference this year, good and fast has always been the goal of China's economic development, and it is also a prominent problem that needs to be solved in previous macroeconomic regulation and control. After years of adjustment, China's economy has achieved rapid goals, but at the same time, good goals are still far away and more challenging.
Only by coordinating speed, quality and benefit, consumption, investment and export, population, resources and environment, and solving the deep-seated contradictions of economic structure, can China's economy enter the track of "good and fast" rapid development.
Structural contradictions are more severe.
Overheating investment leads to overheating of the economy, which is a chronic disease of China's economy. Almost every macro-control is focused on controlling the excessive growth of investment, and this round of macro-control is no exception. After nearly two years of regulation, the contribution rate of investment to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2006 was still as high as 49.9%. On the one hand, the investment growth rate is still high, and the construction scale is still too large. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of urban fixed assets investment reached 3 1.3%, which was unprecedented in three years. It is estimated that the investment scale of projects under construction will reach 32 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 5 trillion yuan over 2005.
On the other hand, the growth rate of investment in some places has dropped significantly. Statistics show that the growth rate of urban investment in June was only 16.8%, the lowest in recent years. In that month, the whole eastern region and the whole country 10 provinces and cities experienced negative growth in new investment projects, including 40% in Shanghai. China's economy may have a roller coaster effect. At the same time, the growth rate of investment in key areas of macro-control remains high, and the production capacity of resource-intensive and capital-intensive heavy chemical industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, coke, cement, automobiles and chemical fiber is seriously overcapacity.
Under the condition of high growth, the pressure on resources and environment is greater, and the hope of solving the resource and energy constraints through the international market is also met with great resistance. The emissions of major pollutants from industrial enterprises continue to rise.
With China's accession to the WTO, the export that has maintained a strong momentum for many years has obviously strengthened its pulling effect on the economy, and China's economic dependence on foreign countries has also increased. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, before 2006 1 1 month, China achieved a trade surplus of157 billion US dollars, far exceeding the level of10/900 million US dollars in 2005. An increase of $66 billion over the same period last year; The balance of foreign exchange reserves has exceeded 1 trillion dollars. At the same time, China has been the developing country attracting the most foreign investment for 15 years. According to the data provided by the United Nations World Investment Report 2006, China's net foreign direct investment (non-financial part) in 2006 was nearly US$ 654.38+02.3 billion, and its foreign investment (stock) only accounted for 0.59% of the world, significantly lower than China's 4.4% of global GDP and 6.5% of trade.
The rapid growth of trade surplus has led to frequent trade frictions in recent years; A large balance of payments surplus not only increased the pressure of RMB appreciation, but also forced the central bank to put in the base currency, resulting in excess liquidity in the domestic financial market. Most of domestic technology-intensive manufacturing industries are at the low end of vertical division of labor, and 55% of goods exports are processing trade, of which about 90% of high-tech products exports come from processing trade. Domestic demand for advanced technology and equipment mainly depends on imports, and the dependence of manufacturing industry on foreign technology is above 50%. China's total foreign trade accounts for 70% of GDP. Every one percentage point drop in the US economy will affect China's exports by 6 percentage points.
The data shows that the proportion of China's final consumption in GDP has dropped from over 62% in 1980s to 5 1. 1% in the first three quarters of 2006, and the consumption rate of residents has also dropped from 48.8% of 1.99 1 to 38.2% in 2005, all of which are the lowest in history. The imbalance between consumption and investment continues to widen. Compared with the contribution rate of investment, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is only 35.7%. Domestic consumption demand is relatively insufficient, and the low income level of farmers and urban low-income people is the key factor restricting consumption.
The traditional growth model is unsustainable.
Under such a growth mode, the quality of economic growth needs to be improved urgently. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first three quarters of 2006, the added value of China's secondary industry accounted for 49.8% of GDP, an increase of 65,438 0.2 percentage points over the same period in 2005. The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 39.2%, down 0.6 percentage points. Economic growth is increasingly dependent on the secondary industry that consumes a lot of resources and emits a lot of pollution, while the tertiary industry with high added value and low resource consumption lags behind.
The contradiction between population, resources and environment is also intensifying. According to the latest survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over in China has exceeded 654.38 billion, and the population is aging rapidly. The transfer of rural labor force is slow, and the employment pressure is still great. Although the total amount of energy resources in China is large, the per capita fresh water resources are only1/4 of the world average; The per capita arable land is only 1.4 mu, which is less than 40% of the world average; The per capita possession of 45 major mineral resources is less than half of the world average. With the rapid economic growth, the demand for coal, electricity, oil transportation and important resources has greatly increased, and the prices have risen sharply. The external dependence of some important resource products has greatly increased, and the shortage of important energy resources in China has further aggravated the constraints on economic development. In the first half of 2006, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the total discharge of major pollutants increased instead of decreasing. According to the 11th Five-Year Plan, the energy consumption per unit of GDP should be reduced by about 20%. Total discharge of major pollutants decreased 10%. The pressure to achieve these two "hard goals" is obvious.
Where does the structural adjustment sword point?
The coordination of speed, quality and benefit is the main symbol of "good and fast", and to achieve this goal, adjusting investment, promoting consumption and promoting the balance of international payments will become the main measures to coordinate the troika in 2007; Taking energy conservation, consumption reduction and emission reduction as a breakthrough, more effective measures will be taken in 2007 to deal with the increasingly prominent contradictions among population, resources and environment.
In terms of investment, priority will be given to the development of service industry rather than industry, and in the industrial field, priority will be given to the development of low-energy industries; In terms of trade, it is necessary to control the trend of expanding surplus, adjust the structure of import and export commodities, improve the quality of utilizing foreign capital, and continue to implement the strategy of "going out"; In terms of consumption, efforts should be made to improve the income level of farmers and urban low-income groups.
Price and tax are the main means to promote the adjustment of economic structure, regulating the prices of manufacturing inputs including land, energy, water, natural resources and environment to meet relative scarcity and social preferences; Policies such as eliminating the distortion of subsidies and stimulating the manufacturing industry in the tax system, including tax incentives for foreign direct investment, will be introduced one after another. The National Development and Reform Commission said that in 2007, it will continue to deepen the reform of the investment system. Deepen the price reform of resource products, rationalize the price of refined oil, improve the formation mechanism of natural gas ex-factory price, narrow the price difference between natural gas and alternative energy sources, and implement the differential water price policy; Accelerate the reform of monopoly industries. A large number of investors who don't have the financial ability enter the capital-intensive heavy chemical industry through the way of land supply at low prices by agreement; Free or low-cost access to natural resource exploitation rights and emission rights is expected to change. Measures such as raising land use tax and industrial land price were introduced, the differential electricity price policy was improved, and the merger of the two taxes became a reality. Improving the efficiency of capital allocation can maintain economic growth with less investment, which will accelerate the opening and reform of financial markets; Establishing dividend policy for state-owned enterprises to eliminate the tendency of over-investment will make progress; The performance appraisal of local officials will also be reformed; The government will strictly control enterprises and products with high energy consumption and high pollution, and encourage enterprises to innovate independently.
In order to increase consumer demand and stimulate domestic consumption, government expenditure will shift from investment to medical care, education and social security, accelerate the construction of urban community health service system, improve public health and medical service system, further expand the coverage of new rural cooperative medical care, and co-ordinate the pilot work of medical insurance for serious illness of urban residents; Continue to carry out pilot projects to promote employment and coordinate urban and rural employment, and attach great importance to the employment of zero-employment families; The National Development and Reform Commission will study and put forward the basic ideas for the reform of the income distribution system. Reasonably adjust and strictly implement the minimum wage system, and steadily expand the proportion of middle-income people; Strengthen tax collection and management, effectively regulate excessive income, and strengthen supervision over income distribution in monopoly industries. Continue to strengthen the basic position of agriculture in the national economy, improve agricultural labor productivity and increase farmers' income. We will continue to promote the stable transfer of surplus rural labor to non-agricultural industries and cities and towns. Extend the industrial chain of agricultural production, promote the transformation and appreciation of agricultural products, and increase farmers' income from the deep processing of agricultural products; Control the price increase of agricultural means of production and ensure the implementation effect of the central policy of benefiting farmers.
Balance of payments will become a prominent task this year. According to the deployment, the country will adhere to the win-win opening strategy and improve the level of opening up. Use tax rate policy, adjust relevant monetary policy and control surplus; Focus on optimizing the structure of import and export commodities, control the export of primary resource products such as crude steel by increasing tax burden, and strengthen the import of science and technology and resource products. While maintaining a reasonable growth in exports and utilization of foreign capital, we will actively expand imports and actively and orderly expand overseas investment cooperation. Pay attention to the introduction of advanced technology, advanced management and overseas intelligence to improve the quality of foreign capital utilization. While giving play to comparative advantages, we should strive to improve our competitive advantages and enhance our position in the international industrial division of labor system. Improve the ability of independent innovation and change the situation that high technology relies too much on multinational companies and industrial development is subject to people.