(2) The pillar industries are growing strongly, and the characteristics of heavy chemical industrialization are becoming increasingly obvious. In the first three quarters, pillar industries such as electronic communication equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, metallurgical industry and chemical industry achieved rapid growth, contributing 50.7% to the whole industrial growth. The growth rate of heavy industry is obviously faster than that of light industry. The added value of heavy industry increased by 18.4%, the added value of light industry increased by 13.9%, and the added value of heavy industry accounted for 64.37% of the industrial added value, which was 3.42 percentage points higher than the annual level of 2002 (60.95%). Since 1998, the growth of heavy industry has accelerated relative to the growth of light industry, and the proportion of added value of heavy industry in industrial added value has been increasing, and this proportion has increased even more this year, indicating that China's economic development has entered a new round of heavy chemical industrialization. This round of heavy chemical industrialization is mainly driven by the rapid growth of industrial pillar industries and real estate industry, closely related to the upgrading of consumption structure, and has a strong market endogenous mechanism, which will become the main supporting force for China's sustained and rapid economic growth in the future 10.
(3) The investment is growing at a high speed, and the consumption structure keeps upgrading. /kloc-in the third quarter, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society increased by 30.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 8.7 percentage points. The high growth of investment is mainly driven by the trend of heavy chemical industrialization and increasingly active private investment. The growth rate of consumption was once reduced by the impact of SARS, but the cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters reached 8.6%, down only 0. 1 percentage point year-on-year, which has returned to the normal growth level. It can be considered that consumption continues to maintain a high level of steady growth. Despite the impact of SARS, the trend of consumption structure upgrading is obvious. /kloc-in the third quarter, the retail sales of building and decoration materials increased by 46.6% year-on-year, the retail sales of automobiles increased by 77.5% year-on-year, the retail sales of communication equipment increased by 74% year-on-year, and new consumption hotspots such as housing and transportation continued to heat up.
(D) The growth of foreign trade is strong, and there are trade frictions. 1-3 quarters, exports increased by 32.2% year-on-year, with an increase of 12.9 percentage points, maintaining a high growth trend. Imports increased by 40.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 23.3 percentage points, so the trade surplus decreased compared with the same period of last year (net exports were $965,438+billion, down $654,380+09 billion year-on-year). In terms of countries and regions, the export surplus to the United States and some European countries continues to increase; However, the export deficit to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China continued to widen. As the United States and Europe are China's main export markets, the expansion of surplus will inevitably aggravate trade friction, and China is facing increasing anti-dumping pressure. In recent years, some products exported by Japanese, Korean and China Taiwan Province Province to the United States and Europe have been transferred to Chinese mainland to set up factories, which is an important reason for the expansion of China's surplus with the United States and Europe.
(5) The total contradiction has eased, and there is a gap in the supply of some energy and raw materials. With the active domestic market and accelerated export growth, the contradiction of insufficient total demand in China has gradually eased. The price index changed from negative to positive. 1-3 The consumer price index in the third quarter increased by 0.7% compared with the same period of last year. The prices of means of production rose by 4.5%, but remained stable quarterly (4.6%, 4.7% and 4% respectively). Power, coal, steel, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and other products are in short supply, and many provinces and cities are forced to limit electricity, and the prices of some raw materials have risen more. At present, the supply of these products is increasing rapidly, and the rising trend of raw material prices has slowed down. Generally speaking, prices remain at a low level, demand constraints are widespread, and market competition for most products is still fierce.
(6) The grain output continued to decline, and the relationship between supply and demand did not reverse. According to relevant statistics, the grain output this year may be less than 900 billion Jin, which is also lower than the annual grain demand. After several years of production reduction, the current market grain price has recovered, but it is expected that grain prices and grain prices will not rise sharply for a long time. First, due to the high inventory level, the grain inventory will remain above 400 billion Jin by the end of 2003, which is much higher than the normal level (estimated to be around 300 billion Jin in recent years); Second, the grain production capacity is relatively large. Driven by market demand, food supply will increase rapidly to curb the rise of food prices. There will be no shortage of food supply in the near future, but the food problem is related to the overall economic situation and needs close attention and great attention. On the one hand, it is necessary to strictly protect cultivated land and stabilize grain production capacity; On the other hand, it is necessary to consolidate and develop the achievements of rural industrial restructuring and handle the relationship between grain production and other cash crop production; At the same time, don't overreact, causing food prices to fluctuate greatly.
(7) Money supply and credit continued to grow at a high speed, and foreign exchange reserves increased substantially. At the end of September, the balance of broad money M2 increased by 20.7% year-on-year; Rmb loans of financial institutions increased by 2.47 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 1. 1.2 trillion yuan year-on-year. Foreign exchange reserves reached $383.9 billion, an increase of $97.5 billion over the beginning of the year and $56.2 billion over the same period last year. From the perspective of loan structure, the increase in demand driven by internal economic expansion is still the main reason for the rapid growth of money and credit. Although the deposit reserve ratio has increased, its tightening effect needs to be gradually released. Coupled with the inertia of economic recovery, the rapid expansion of money and credit will continue for some time. At the same time, the rise of money market interest rate will help to gradually restrain the loan progress of financial institutions. The sharp increase in foreign exchange reserves is mainly due to the large surplus in the capital account, in which foreign direct investment is still the main source, and there is also the influence of the accelerated inflow of "hot money".
Analysis and forecast
At present, China's economy still has some room for growth, and the world economy will maintain a moderate recovery. It is predicted that China's economy will continue to maintain high-speed and steady growth in 2004.
(1) At present, China's economy is in a recovery period, and there is still room for improvement from the domestic and international conditions.
On the basis of expanding domestic demand, adjusting economic structure and deepening economic system reform in recent years, China's economy has got rid of the state of continuous decline and entered the stage of comprehensive recovery. The main manifestations are as follows: a new round of consumption structure upgrading represented by improving living and traffic conditions has started; High-growth industries driven by consumption upgrading have become the main driving force for industrial upgrading and economic growth; Enhance the market competitiveness and independent development ability of enterprises; The process of urbanization has obviously accelerated; The development of private investment has been accelerated, market-oriented investment and financing activities have been quite active, and the market-oriented industrial agglomeration effect has become increasingly obvious. This new round of rapid economic growth, which is dominated by the market and based on consumption upgrading and independent investment by enterprises, has strong sustainability.
From several macro-economic aspects this year, the economic growth rate is higher than that of the previous year, the domestic demand is expanding rapidly, and the total contradiction is basically alleviated; The supply and demand pattern of major commodities is basically balanced, and the overall price level is low and relatively stable; Imports grew faster than exports, foreign direct investment continued to flow in rapidly, external resources were abundant, and the balance of payments was good. On the whole, the economy has rebounded steadily, and there has been no "overheating" of the overall economy, and the macroeconomic operation is basically healthy. However, structural contradictions are more prominent, especially the supply gap of power and steel products is relatively large, which leads to insufficient supply of some resource products. Power equipment, steel processing and other projects are being built in some places. Without proper guidance, it may lead to blind expansion and overcapacity in these industries. In addition, from the source, we should also attach great importance to the development zone fever and real estate fever in some places, and actively guide and standardize development. It not only maintains the upward trend of economic growth, but also prevents local problems from affecting the overall situation.
There is still great potential for future economic growth. Bank deposits in China are still huge, foreign exchange reserves are abundant, and capital supply is relatively abundant; The supply of labor force is almost unlimited, and the advantage of low labor cost will be maintained for a long time; There is no obvious constraint on technology supply. The existing factor supply conditions are conducive to expanding the market's adjustment space for product supply. At the same time, China's residents' income has increased steadily, the level of urban savings has continued to improve, the income and expenditure expectations have improved, the consumption environment and consumption policies have been gradually improved, and the upgrading of residents' consumption structure has continued to advance. Consumer demand is expected to maintain a high level of steady growth, with great potential. Driven by consumption upgrading, the pace of industrial upgrading will also be accelerated accordingly, thus driving the sustained and rapid growth of investment. These conditions will maintain the upward trend of China's economy.
(2) The prospects for world economic recovery are improving.
Since the second half of this year, the economic recovery of the United States and Japan has exceeded expectations. Therefore, all parties are more optimistic about the prospects of world economic recovery in the second half of this year and in 2004. The World Bank predicts that the world economic growth rate is expected to increase to 3% next year, including 2.5% in developed countries, 3.4% in the United States, 0/.3% in Japan and 0/.7% in the euro zone. The growth rate of developing countries will rise to 4.9%. The IMF predicts that the global growth will be 4. 1% next year, including 3.9% in the United States and 1.4% in Japan. Overall, the world economy will maintain a moderate recovery, but there are still uncertainties. It is worth noting that global deflation has not eased, trade protection has increased, China's foreign trade and foreign exchange policies are facing greater external pressure, and China's foreign trade environment tends to be severe.
(3) Preliminary analysis and forecast of the economic trend next year.
According to the situation at home and abroad, it is predicted that China's economy will continue to maintain high-speed and steady growth in 2004. Judging from the three major demands, in the absence of a large-scale epidemic such as SARS, due to the upgrading of consumption structure, the consumption growth rate is expected to return to more than 9%, higher than this year's level; Under the condition of stable monetary policy, driven by industrial upgrading, investment will continue to grow rapidly, and it is expected to stabilize at this year's growth level, that is, about 30%; Due to the severe foreign trade environment, the export tax rebate rate is lowered, and the export base is large. It is expected that the export growth rate will fall back to around 10% next year. Driven by the recovery of the domestic market, imports will continue to grow at a high speed, with the growth rate exceeding that of exports, and the trade surplus will continue to decrease. Comprehensive qualitative analysis and macroeconomic econometric model forecast results show that GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8.5% next year.
God wants to ask questions.
New structural contradictions have emerged; The reform of investment and financing system lags behind and the degree of marketization is low; The employment situation is still grim; The problem of slow growth of farmers' income is prominent.
(1) New structural contradictions have emerged. With the economic recovery and the start of heavy chemical industrialization, great changes have taken place in the relationship between supply and demand in various production industries, and new structural contradictions have emerged. What is more prominent is that the supply of some raw materials such as electricity and steel is tight, and overcapacity still exists in many fields. From the perspective of electricity and steel, the market is quite sensitive to the adjustment of output. Since the beginning of this year, investment projects in electric power, steel and related raw materials have increased a lot, and the output of power generation equipment has increased by more than 70%. It is expected that the tight supply of these products will not last long. With the acceleration of power station construction and the increase of coal demand, transportation may also be tense. In the development planning and construction of transportation system, we should pay attention to drawing lessons from electricity and avoid passivity. For the widespread problem of overcapacity, we should also promote adjustment through market mechanism, and do not restrict supply growth easily by administrative means (for example, restricting power station construction after 1994), otherwise it will aggravate future structural contradictions. The crux of "redundant construction" in some fields lies in administrative intervention and administrative-led investment expansion. We should suit the remedy to the case, promote competition by market means and use administrative means as little as possible.
(2) The contradiction between investment and financing system and economic marketization is more prominent. The reform of investment and financing system lags behind and the degree of marketization is low. The administrative examination and approval in investment activities is still too complicated, the government participates too much, and the administrative threshold of competitive industries is too high. Financing activities rely too much on government credit and administrative examination and approval of investment projects, and market risks are often transformed into greater risks that no one is responsible for under administrative intervention. At present, a large part of the new loans of state-owned commercial banks are long-term loans with government background or government credit guarantee. This kind of loan behavior lacks risk constraints, which is easy to promote excessive credit expansion and form financial risks and hidden financial debts. The current investment and financing system and the new round of market-led economic growth have produced more and more prominent contradictions: on the one hand, it restricts the investment and financing activities of private investors, limits full competition, and weakens the role of the market in allocating resources; On the other hand, it encourages administrative power to intervene in investment and financing activities, which makes it difficult to eradicate administrative-led redundant construction. If the reform of investment and financing system is not promoted as soon as possible, the positive effect of this economic recovery may be greatly damaged.
(3) The stability of employment has declined, and the employment situation remains grim. With the economic recovery, the overall employment situation in cities and towns has gradually improved, and employment in most areas has an obvious increasing trend. It is worth pointing out that this round of economic growth is dominated by heavy chemical industry, and its ability to absorb labor is relatively low. In the total employment growth, the growth of formal employment is slow, and the new employment is mainly informal employment. Formal employment mainly refers to employment that works in the formal sector and forms stable labor relations; Informal employment includes both employment in informal sectors such as self-employed and self-employed, and informal employment in formal sectors. Compared with formal employment, the stability of informal employment is poor, especially it is difficult for informal employees to enter the institutionalized social security system, and it is difficult to effectively protect some basic rights and interests, which increases the instability of this group of people's future life. In addition, a large number of people are in informal employment, which brings great challenges to social management. If we take participation in institutionalized social security as the yardstick, the total number of informal employees in cities and towns in China has exceeded that of formal employees. In the process of market-oriented reform and structural adjustment, informal employment will become an increasingly common form of employment, which plays an important role in alleviating employment pressure. However, we should pay enough attention to the protection of workers' rights and interests and the contradiction between labor and capital in informal employment, and establish and improve the relevant social security system and contradiction coordination mechanism as soon as possible.
(D) The problem of slow growth of farmers' income is prominent. In 2003, farmers faced new difficulties in increasing their income. Due to the impact of the SARS epidemic, about 65,438+00% farmers returned to their hometowns due to SARS in the second quarter of this year. According to the survey, 17% of them will not go out again this year. In addition, after the outbreak of SARS, the export orders of township enterprises decreased, resulting in a backlog of products due to poor transportation, and the income growth of farmers in township enterprises declined. The factors leading to the obvious increase in agricultural product prices have not yet formed. In some areas, livestock products, fruits and vegetables are not sold well, or exports are blocked, and prices generally fall, so the growth of farmers' agricultural income will not be optimistic. The expected goal of increasing farmers' income by 4% for the whole year is difficult to achieve.
The current economic recovery is based on the market, so we should cherish it, continue to strengthen the role of the market in survival of the fittest, and prevent various non-market factors from increasing the fluctuation range and risks of economic growth. On the premise of maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, we should appropriately weaken the government's efforts to stimulate economic aggregate expansion and strengthen structural policy guidance. The period of economic recovery is also a favorable opportunity to accelerate reform. We should seize this opportunity, accelerate the pace of reform in accordance with the deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, promote development through reform, overcome the interference of non-market factors on the economy by improving new systems and mechanisms, and achieve stable economic growth.
(a) The goal of economic development should shift from maintaining the necessary economic growth rate to pursuing stable, coordinated, orderly and safe economic development.
Under the condition of overall economic recovery, we should dilute the speed index and shift the main goal of macro-control to control the fluctuation range of economic growth; Strengthen overall planning, information services and policy guidance for economic development and structural adjustment; Standardize the market order; Promote coordinated economic and social development. It is suggested that the expected target of economic growth in 2004 should be set at 7%, so as to guide governments at all levels to turn their attention to the stability, coordination, order and security of economic development and prevent governments at all levels from overweight and blindly comparing speed.
(2) The focus of fiscal policy should shift from expanding investment to promoting coordinated economic and social development and maintaining social stability.
Under the new situation that the demand is obviously alleviated, the focus of fiscal policy should be adjusted accordingly. First, we will continue to reduce the issuance scale of government bonds, and the use of construction-type government bonds and newly started projects can be appropriately moved back to increase the carry-over volume. At the same time, we will strictly screen newly started treasury bonds and focus on optimizing the investment of treasury bonds. The second is to increase investment in urban and rural public health, public education and environmental protection, and at the same time accelerate the pace of reform in related fields, improve the mechanism and system of financial support, and prevent the effect of financial investment from diminishing. Strengthen the responsibility of the central and provincial finance to support rural basic education, improve the central transfer payment system for poor areas, and strengthen the support of public finance for rural public health undertakings. Third, continue to support the western region, increase support for the revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China and strengthen the adjustment of regional economic development. Fourth, consider the construction of social security system and the reform of state-owned assets management system as a whole. In the process of reforming the state-owned assets management system, we should pay attention to enriching the social security fund and making up the historical debts. Fifth, in view of the sharp increase in informal employment, we should seriously study and reasonably solve the security problems of this group of people, such as old-age care and medical care, to ensure their basic rights and interests and life safety, so as to promote the increase of employability and stabilize the employment team.
(3) The means of macro-control should shift from relying mainly on fiscal policy to relying mainly on monetary policy.
While weakening the expansion of fiscal policy and adjusting the focus of fiscal policy, we should increase the regulatory role of monetary policy on economic operation and do a good job in close cooperation and mutual cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy. Based on the judgment that the current economy as a whole is not overheated, but the structural contradictions are prominent, we should continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain a loose monetary environment, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, maintain the steady growth of money and credit, reasonably pre-adjust and fine-tune the total amount, and at the same time pay attention to strengthening the structural adjustment function of credit policy. Effectively strengthen financial supervision, pay attention to and adjust the fluctuation of the capital market, and speed up the disposal of non-performing assets. Actively develop the capital market and expand direct financing channels. On the premise of ensuring the stability of the currency, we will maintain the good momentum of sustained and rapid economic growth.
(4) Accelerate the reform of the investment and financing system and improve the market's ability to allocate resources.
The investment and financing system is the institutional bottleneck that restricts the improvement of the market's ability to allocate resources at present, which greatly interferes with the economic recovery. In accordance with the requirements of the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, the arrangements for the reform of the investment and financing system should be implemented as soon as possible. It is necessary to emphasize "managing the government well, opening the market, attracting private capital, and strengthening risk constraints" so that private investors can play the main role. Government investment should be strictly limited to the field of public goods, introduce a fair and open competition mechanism, and strengthen public supervision in auditing and public opinion. Reduce investment approval procedures, relax industrial access restrictions, expand the access scope of private investment, and attract all kinds of private capital to participate in investment as much as possible, even in the field of public goods. Actively develop financial institutions, capital markets, credit guarantee systems and investment service institutions that meet the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises. With the goal of promoting the development of rural financial market, the rural financial system will be reformed as a whole. Improve the legal system for protecting private property and the fiscal and taxation policies for encouraging private investment as soon as possible, and fully mobilize the entrepreneurial enthusiasm contained in society.
(5) Further strengthen policies to encourage consumption growth.
The fundamental driving force for the current economic recovery is the upgrading of residents' consumption structure. Therefore, the focus of expanding domestic demand should shift from investment to consumption. The focus of the government's work to promote consumption growth can be considered as follows: first, further expand the consumption field, encourage the development of new consumption hotspots and consumption methods, clean up restrictive consumption policies, and vigorously promote the upgrading of consumption structure; The second is to improve the social security system and develop social public utilities, enhance residents' sense of security and improve residents' expenditure expectations; The third is to promote the steady growth of income of low-income groups, especially to increase support for farmers to reduce burdens and increase income; Fourth, continue to rectify the market economic order, improve the consumption environment and enhance consumer confidence.
(6) Actively solve the difficulties in foreign trade and economic cooperation and further develop an open economy.
The difficulties in developing foreign trade and economic cooperation will increase next year, so we should make full preparations. The key points can be considered as follows: actively developing regional economic cooperation and striving for a better international economic and trade environment; Follow WTO rules, rationally use relevant mechanisms, properly resolve trade frictions, standardize export order, and actively expand exports. In the utilization of foreign capital, we should strengthen the guidance of foreign capital structure and investment, and further improve the investment environment in relevant laws and regulations, management system, market opening and infrastructure.
With the development of open economy, it is inevitable that the trade surplus will decrease or a certain deficit will appear. China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, so there is no need to worry too much about a certain trade deficit. The recovery of domestic demand can basically make up for the demand gap caused by the reduction of trade surplus, and will not have a significant impact on the overall economic recovery. In the future, we should strive to maintain the basic balance of international payments without pursuing excessive trade surplus, which will also help ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.