The issue of RMB appreciation has been bothering everyone. The fall of the US dollar is an inevitable trend. The United States has been in deficit for a long time, and China is the main import and export deficit country. China also takes into account market conditions, because the RMB The appreciation will bring many chain reactions and even cause a financial crisis. The United States will put pressure on China from all aspects, such as increasing import tariffs. As mentioned above, China will transform from a fixed exchange rate to a free exchange rate, and no longer In the past, if we pegged the U.S. dollar to the dollar, depreciation of the U.S. dollar would be inevitable in the long run. Haha, if you have to write a paper, then you have to check it online. I mean it is not comprehensive. Give me some information, I have summarized it. .If it is not enough, I will pass it on to you. It will be easier to understand.

2. The impact of RMB appreciation:

1. Impact on import and export trade balance. 2. On prices 3. Impact on capital flows. 4. Impact on foreign exchange reserves. 5. Impact on a country’s domestic employment, national income and resource allocation. 6. Impact on international economic relations.

The first impact is the foreign exchange dumping effect. "Foreign exchange dumping effect" has a definition: consciously lowering the exchange rate of the domestic currency, export goods expressed in foreign currency will become more expensive than before. Because the RMB is valuable, other people's demand for you will decrease when other conditions remain unchanged. Among imported goods, the price of goods expressed in RMB is cheaper. In other words, the development of foreign trade must be divided into two parts. For export companies, if other conditions remain unchanged, the appreciation of RMB alone will make your Increased export volume creates difficulties; then if you mainly engage in import trade, the cost will decrease because imported goods are cheaper. Or if you export goods mainly using imported goods as raw materials, your costs may have some impact, but it may be less than the loss of pure import trade! But in general, this effect emphasizes its negative effect, because China's export volume is very huge, and the difficulties caused by the appreciation of the RMB to trade exports are in this aspect. It takes effort to absorb this part in the price. content. But this factor cannot be overemphasized, because it is related to a flaw in China's export trade. We tend to engage in low-price competition, which is a fatal flaw in China's export trade. The second effect is the trade structure effect. If other conditions remain unchanged for the appreciation of the RMB, it will be difficult to introduce foreign investment only due to the appreciation of the RMB. Why? After the appreciation of the RMB, overseas investments in China are expressed in US dollars. Similarly, the amount of one million US dollars converted into RMB used to be relatively large, but now it is converted into RMB less, so it will be reduced. In the foreign trade structure, the proportion of exports of foreign-invested enterprises will also decrease accordingly! In addition, the export of low value-added goods will gradually be eliminated. In the past, it was possible to engage in low-price competition and low-value-added exports, but now it is not possible! Enterprises that export low value-added goods will face serious difficulties or even go bankrupt. The appreciation of the RMB will help China improve its trade structure, because foreign-invested exports now account for the majority of China's exports; although the export volume is large, the added value of the products is low. Third, trade scale. The scale of trade does not refer to the volume of trade. How to expand the scale can be viewed from several aspects. The first is import trade. If it is not artificially suppressed, in general, it can further increase because the price is relatively cheap, but there is one factor. It should be considered that since export trade is hindered, import trade may be somewhat affected, and overall import trade may increase. There is a formula in academic circles. The expansion of a country's export trade is affected by several factors. These factors even include transportation costs. After the appreciation of the RMB, transportation costs decrease because transportation costs are paid in U.S. dollars, so transportation costs It cannot rise, it can only fall. Import trade can be expanded accordingly. In addition, export trade can be expanded from a theoretical perspective, so there is no need to worry about the scale of trade. Fourth terms of trade. What does the terms of trade mean? It is expressed in currency as the price of exported goods multiplied by 100% of the price of imported goods. Exporting a shirt can be exchanged for fifty kilograms of rice today and fifty-five kilograms of rice tomorrow. This means that the terms of trade have improved; if it can be exchanged for forty-five kilograms of rice the day after tomorrow, this means that the terms of trade have deteriorated. Generally speaking, the terms of trade are conducive to improvement, which means that the general trend of China's export products will be in exchange for more and more foreign exchange products. The fifth trade policy effect. What do we mean by trade policy effects? The appreciation of the RMB will have an impact on both the central government's trade policies and the behavior of local governments. Regarding civil servants in local governments, we particularly emphasize a point of view. It turns out that the behavior of local governments in China is a paradox. The behavior of many local governments is contradictory. On the one hand, local governments have the initiative to actively develop local economies and trade growth. , trade has been promoted, a lot of brains have been used and many policies have been introduced to promote it, which should be fully affirmed; however, due to various reasons, the actions and policies issued by local governments and the policies issued by the central government have had an offsetting effect in the opposite direction. It is a special phenomenon in China. Now, some local governments with extensive enterprises have made conscious changes.

Only the first one here is negative. Don’t think that the appreciation of the RMB will definitely have a negative impact on trade development. It will not be the case.

What impact will the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar have on people’s daily lives? There is almost no impact on ordinary people. Ordinary people do not have many U.S. dollars in their hands, and for some families who have U.S. dollars, the impact is not significant. According to the analysis of financial management experts, a slight appreciation of the RMB will stabilize domestic prices, make people's lives more convenient, and may also make it cheaper to buy imported goods. Especially for people traveling abroad, purchasing items may seem cheaper and more convenient.

3. Exchange rate risk prevention measures.

1. Methods of optimizing currency combinations. Normally, in export trade, "coins" or currencies with an upward trend should be selected as the Pricing currency; in import trade, "soft currency" or a currency with a downward trend should be selected as the pricing currency. In import and export contracts with large amounts, in order to buffer the sharp rise and fall of the exchange rate, multiple currency combinations should be used for pricing, which is usually called the "package pricing method". In the selected currency combination, a combination of "coins" and "soft coins" can be used so that the gains from the appreciating currency can offset the losses from the depreciating currency. If the other party insists on choosing the currency during the transaction, negotiation can be carried out so that the buyer and seller do not suffer from each other.

2. Sign a forward foreign exchange sales contract. Enterprises with foreign exchange claims or debts can offset foreign exchange risks by signing forward foreign exchange sales or purchases contracts with banks. Enterprises can also borrow a loan from the bank with the same amount, same term and same currency as their foreign exchange income to achieve the purpose of financing funds, preventing foreign exchange risks and changing the risk time. After the trade contract is signed, the foreign exchange income or foreign exchange expenditure for a certain period of time is determined. Trading companies can use various foreign exchanges in the foreign exchange market to prevent possible risks and losses caused by future foreign exchange income or expenditure.

3. Carry out forward foreign exchange transactions. Forward foreign exchange is an easy-to-operate means of value preservation and hedging. That is, when a foreign exchange transaction is concluded, both parties first agree on the currency type, quantity and exchange rate of the transaction, and then make the actual delivery at a certain time in the future. Forward foreign exchange transactions generally include 30 days, 60 days, 180 days, 1 year, etc. From the signing of the contract to the delivery of foreign exchange, no matter how the exchange rate in the foreign exchange market fluctuates, both parties to the transaction must follow the provisions of the forward contract and deliver at the predetermined exchange rate on the maturity date to determine the company's income and expenditure and eliminate exchange rate risks. After the forward foreign exchange transaction is completed, the claims and debts due in the future can also be calculated, so that the uncertainty caused by exchange rate changes can be eliminated when comparing costs and benefits. In forward foreign exchange transactions, foreign exchange option transactions can also be used, allowing delivery at the price specified in the contract and on any day within the period specified in the contract. Compared with general forward foreign exchange transactions, this kind of transaction is more flexible in terms of transaction dates, and is suitable for preventing foreign exchange risks in trade contracts where the date of receipt and payment cannot be accurately determined.

4. Carry out foreign exchange futures business. Foreign exchange futures trading is a contract transaction in which both parties to the transaction reach a specified amount of foreign exchange at a specified date, place, and price in the future through open bidding on a futures exchange. Foreign exchange futures contracts are in the same line as traditional forward foreign exchange sales contracts, but they also have their own characteristics. All qualified members who want to trade foreign exchange futures must go to the exchange. Once the transaction is completed, the buyer and seller will immediately register the contract with the exchange and pay the deposit. After registration, the buyer and seller have nothing to do with each other. If it is moved to the futures market, the clearing center will be responsible for delivery when it expires. Neither the buyer nor the buyer has to worry about the credibility of the other party. When a company buys a number of futures contracts but no longer wants them, it can sell the same number of identical contracts to close out the position and clear its future obligations without having to pay for the original currency. Those who have foreign exchange claims or debts due to international trade can use the foreign exchange futures market for hedging to avoid or reduce losses caused by exchange rate changes.

5. Use foreign exchange options. Foreign exchange options refer to a contract reached in advance between two parties on whether to purchase or sell a certain foreign exchange asset option in the future based on a negotiated exchange rate. What the option buyer obtains is a right rather than an obligation. When the market is favorable, he has the right to buy or sell this foreign exchange asset; when the market is unfavorable, he can choose not to execute the option. The option seller must sell or buy the foreign exchange asset when the buyer requests to execute the option. Compared with forward foreign exchange transactions, foreign exchange options trading has a certain degree of flexibility. You can choose to execute foreign exchange delivery when it expires, which can not only avoid losses caused by unfavorable changes in the exchange rate, but also benefit from favorable changes. This method requires higher fees for the option buyer. The option buyer can predict the worst result at the beginning of the transaction, that is, the maximum loss is the option fee paid.

6. Use swap transactions. Swap transactions, also known as time arbitrage, are buying or selling a spot currency at the same time as selling or buying the same forward currency, also known as time arbitrage. This can involve buying a forward currency with a shorter maturity and selling the same forward currency with a longer maturity.

The purpose of this method is to solve the funding needs of different currencies at different times.

An exchange rate adjustment of about 2% will have little impact on most people. A slight appreciation of the RMB will instead stabilize domestic prices and facilitate the people. In daily life, it may be cheaper to buy imported goods. Especially for people traveling abroad, purchasing items may seem cheaper and more convenient.

The 2% exchange rate adjustment will not have much impact on some US dollar investors.

Let me tell you, the US dollar will definitely depreciate, but China’s US dollar foreign exchange reserves will become more and more, which is very contradictory, right? This is the strategy. Although the U.S. dollar depreciates, we still need to have a larger amount of U.S. dollars. One trillion U.S. dollars is really not that much. We must own at least 50% of all U.S. dollar circulation. Otherwise, how can we become the same world currency as the U.S. dollar? currency? In my opinion, no matter how many U.S. dollars the United States issues, there is no contradiction between short selling and continuing to hold large amounts of U.S. dollars. What other countries cannot afford, we take all in. How can we become the world's policeman if we don't have the appetite? hehe. ． ． ． ． ．

It can be expected that when all the wealth of capital countries flows into the pockets of socialist countries, the world will be more exciting!